Patient Safety Alert : A new way to share patient safety information among departments and units

Communication : If there is one topic that comes up over and over again as we discuss ways to make John Dempsey Hospital the safest hospital, it is “communication.” In fact, several of the 2006 and 2007 National Patient Safety Goals are centered around improving the effectiveness of communication among caregivers. There are many ways of doing this, and we have implemented several already. These include handoffs, medication reconciliation, “SBAR,” etc. On page two, we will talk in more detail about hand-offs and the use of “SBAR.”

The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.