Rough Waters: Life at Sea in the 19th Century

This talk consists of two parts - first part deals with what Jeffrey Bolster called “The Changing Nature of Maritime Insurrection”- and I will tie that into some research that I did on a New York clipper ship called the Contest. The second part of the talk will look at the rise of seafarer’s missions and that will tie Roald Kverndal’s magnum opus Seamen’s Missions: Their Origin and Early Growth into some research that I did on the earliest work done in New York among seafarers that pre-dated the American Seamen’s Friend Society.

Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity with Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut

We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.