2 resultados para Error Analysis

em University of Connecticut - USA


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We examine the effects of the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differential on the real exchange rate in a sample of small open developed economies. We employ cointegration analysis to search for possible long-term linkages. We find that while both the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differentials affect the real exchange rate in the long run, the role of the terms of trade generally proves more consistent across countries. The speed of adjustment for the expected real interest rate differential in the error-correction model, however, is quantitatively larger than it is for the terms of trade.

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The Fourth Amendment prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures in criminal investigations. The Supreme Court has interpreted this to require that police obtain a warrant prior to search and that illegally seized evidence be excluded from trial. A consensus has developed in the law and economics literature that tort liability for police officers is a superior means of deterring unreasonable searches. We argue that this conclusion depends on the assumption of truth-seeking police, and develop a game-theoretic model to compare the two remedies when some police officers (the bad type) are willing to plant evidence in order to obtain convictions, even though other police (the good type) are not (where this type is private information). We characterize the perfect Bayesian equilibria of the asymmetric-information game between the police and a court that seeks to minimize error costs in deciding whether to convict or acquit suspects. In this framework, we show that the exclusionary rule with a warrant requirement leads to superior outcomes (relative to tort liability) in terms of truth-finding function of courts, because the warrant requirement can reduce the scope for bad types of police to plant evidence