The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility, favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.

Response Shift and Glycemic Control in Children With Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate the scale recalibration construct of response shift and its relationship to glycemic control in children with diabetes. METHODS: At year 1, thirty-eight children with type 1 diabetes attending a diabetes summer camp participated. At baseline and post-camp they completed the Problem Areas in Diabetes (PAID) questionnaire. Post-camp, the PAID was also completed using the 'thentest' method, which requires a retrospective judgment about their baseline functioning. At year 2, fifteen of the original participants reported their HbA1c. RESULTS: PAID scores significantly decreased from baseline to post-camp. An even larger difference was found between thentest and post-camp scores, suggesting scale recalibration. There was a significant positive correlation between year 1 HbA1c and thentest scores. Partial correlation analysis between PAID thentest scores and year 2 HbA1c, controlling for year 1 HbA1c, showed that higher PAID thentest scores were associated with higher year 2 HbA1c. CONCLUSION: Results from this small sample suggest that children with diabetes do show scale recalibration, and that it may be related to glycemic control.