Economic Growth, Longevity, and the Epidemiological Transition

This paper integrates investments in health to a standard growth model where physical and human capital investments are the combined engines of growth. It shows the existence of two distinct health regimes separated by an 'Epidemiological Transition'. The various patterns of the transition identified in the epidemiological literature can be mapped into the model. The model also leads to the important hypothesis that the epidemiological transition may induce an economy to switch to a modern growth regime.

Explaining Economic Growth: Factor Accumulation, Total Factor Productivity Growth, and Production Efficiency Improvement

This paper examines cross-country patterns of economic growth by estimating a stochastic frontier production function for 80 developed and developing countries and decomposing output change into factor accumulation, total factor productivity growth, and production efficiency improvement. In addition, this paper incorporates the quality of inputs in analyzing output growth, where the productivity of capital depends on its average age, while the productivity of labor depends on its average level of education. Our growth decomposition involves five geographic regions - Africa, East Asian, Latin America, South Asia, and the West. Factor growth, especially capital accumulation, generally proves much more important than either the improved quality of factors or total factor productivity growth in explaining output growth. The quality of capital positively and significantly affects output growth in all groups. The quality of labor, however, only possesses a positive and significant effect on output growth in Africa, East Asia, and the West. Labor quality owns a negative and significant effect in Latin America and South Asia.

Corruption and Growth Under Weak Identification

The goal of this paper is to revisit the influential work of Mauro [1995] focusing on the strength of his results under weak identification. He finds a negative impact of corruption on investment and economic growth that appears to be robust to endogeneity when using two-stage least squares (2SLS). Since the inception of Mauro [1995], much literature has focused on 2SLS methods revealing the dangers of estimation and thus inference under weak identification. We reproduce the original results of Mauro [1995] with a high level of confidence and show that the instrument used in the original work is in fact 'weak' as defined by Staiger and Stock [1997]. Thus we update the analysis using a test statistic robust to weak instruments. Our results suggest that under Mauro's original model there is a high probability that the parameters of interest are locally almost unidentified in multivariate specifications. To address this problem, we also investigate other instruments commonly used in the corruption literature and obtain similar results.

The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility, favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.

Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited

Previous studies (e.g., Hamori, 2000; Ho and Tsui, 2003; Fountas et al., 2004) find high volatility persistence of economic growth rates using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications. This paper reexamines the Japanese case, using the same approach and showing that this finding of high volatility persistence reflects the Great Moderation, which features a sharp decline in the variance as well as two falls in the mean of the growth rates identified by Bai and Perronâs (1998, 2003) multiple structural change test. Our empirical results provide new evidence. First, excess kurtosis drops substantially or disappears in the GARCH or exponential GARCH model that corrects for an additive outlier. Second, using the outlier-corrected data, the integrated GARCH effect or high volatility persistence remains in the specification once we introduce intercept-shift dummies into the mean equation. Third, the time-varying variance falls sharply, only when we incorporate the break in the variance equation. Fourth, the ARCH in mean model finds no effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth or of output growth on its volatility.