Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework

This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.

Environmental and Endogenous Factors Influencing Emigration in Juvenile Anadromous Alewives

We analyzed juvenile anadromous alewife migration at Bride Lake, a coastal lake in Connecticut, during summer 2006 and found that migration on 24-hour and seasonal timescales was influenced by conditions of the environment and characteristics of the individual. To identify environmental cues of juvenile migration, we continuously video recorded fish at the lake outflow and employed information-theoretic model selection to identify the best predictors of daily migration rate. More than 80% of the approximately 320,000 juveniles that migrated from mid-June to mid-August departed in three pulses lasting one or two days. Pulses of migration were associated with precipitation events, transient decreases in water temperature and transient increases in stream discharge. Diel timing of migration shifted over the summer. Early in the season most migration occurred around dawn; late in the season migration occurred at night. To identify individual characteristics associated with migratory behavior, we compared migrating juveniles that we collected as they were exiting Bride Lake to non-migrating juveniles that we collected from the center of the lake. Migrants were a non-random subset of the population; they were on average 1 – 12 mm larger, 2 – 14 d older, had grown more rapidly (11% greater length-at-age), and were in better condition (14% greater mass-at-length) than non-migrant fish. We infer that the amount of accumulated energy has a positive effect on the net benefit of migration at any time in the migratory season.