Fort Richardson Ordnance Detonations and the Harbor Porpoise: A Case Study in Marine Mammal Bioacoustics

Hearing is extremely important for cetaceans because it is their “principal sense” (Weilgart, 2007) thus the harbor porpoise and other marine animals are highly dependent on sound for survival. This is why we should care about the impact of noise on animals like the harbor porpoise. Since sound travels so well in water, an explosion, sonar, boat noise, etc. can affect a very large area and thus many different species of marine mammals. Although military actions such as low frequency sonar have made recent news, noise has been affecting cetaceans, especially beaked whales, since at least 1991 (Weilgart, 2007). This study is an investigation of the possible impacts of artillery detonated on land on harbor porpoise hearing and covers some of the history of Fort Richardson, the legal and historical aspects and history of this type of concern, the science and physics of sound, marine mammal hearing and general biology of the harbor porpoise. Data were collected at the Fort Richardson Army base during June of 2007 by researchers from the University of Connecticut and the University of Rhode Island and will be used to determine the possible impacts that these detonations could have on the harbor porpoise.

The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.