Deregulation and Structural Change in the U.S. Commercial Banking Industry

Regulatory change not seen since the Great Depression swept the U.S. banking industry beginning in the early 1980s and culminated with the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994. Banking analysts anticipated dramatic consolidation with large numbers of mergers and acquisitions. Some expressed concern about the long-term health of the smaller community banks. This paper describes and discusses the actual evolution of the U.S. banking industry over the past two decades, using the 1976 to 1998 Report of Condition and Income (Call Report) and merger data recently posted on the web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Among several results, more permissive interstate banking and branching regulation significantly associates with higher merger rates, with lower net entry rates, and with higher concentration within states. Interestingly, more permissive intrastate banking and branching regulation only associates with higher concentration.

Competition and the Legal Environment: Intellectual Property Rights in the Early American Film Industry

No abstract available.

Tribalism as a Minimax-Regret Strategy: Evidence from Voting in the 2007 Kenyan Elections

Although many studies find that voting in Africa approximates an ethnic census in that voting is primarily along ethnic lines, hardly any of the studies have sought to explain ethnic voting following a rational choice framework. Using data of voter opinions from a survey conducted two weeks before the December 2007 Kenyan elections, we find that the expected benefits associated with a win by each of the presidential candidates varied significantly across voters from different ethnic groups. We hypothesize that decision to participate in the elections was influenced by the expected benefits as per the minimax-regret voting model. We test the predictions of this model using data of voter turnout in the December 2007 elections and find that turnout across ethnic groups varied systematically with expected benefits. The results suggest that individuals participated in the elections primarily to avoid the maximum regret should a candidate from another ethnic group win. The results therefore offer credence to the minimax regret model as proposed by Ferejohn and Fiorina (1974) and refute the Downsian expected utility model.

Countervailing Duties in the USA

This paper reveals the characteristics of the ITC's decisions on countervailing duties, which have seldom been studied. The empirical evidences based on time series data show that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between affirmative countervailing decisions and macroeconomic variables such as economic growth rates and import penetration ratios. The error correction models show that there is a unidirectional causality from affirmative countervailing decisions to slower economic growth.

Job Matching and Wage Growth in the U.S. and Germany

This paper examines the contribution of job matching to wage growth in the U.S. and Germany using data drawn from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1984 through 1992. Using a symmetrical set of variables and data handling procedures, real wage growth is found to be higher in the U.S. than in Germany during this period. Also, using two different estimators, job matches are found to enhance wage growth in the U.S. and retard it in Germany. The relationship of general skills to employment in each country appears responsible for this result.

Income Inequality in the 1990s: Re-Forging a Lost Relationship?

Using data from March Current Population Surveys we find gains from economic growth over the 1990s business cycle (1989-2000) were more equitably distributed than over the 1980s business cycle (1979-1989) using summary inequality measures as well as kernel density estimations. The entire distribution of household size-adjusted income moved upwards in the 1990s with profound improvements for African Americans, single mothers and those living in households receiving welfare. Most gains occurred over the growth period 1993-2000. Improvements in average income and income inequity over the latter period are reminiscent of gains seen in the first three decades after World War II.

Endogenous Growth in the Presence of Informal Credit Markets: A Comparative Analysis Between Credit Rationing and Self-Revelation Regimes

This paper examines whether the presence of informal credit markets reduces the cost of credit rationing in terms of growth. In a dynamic general equilibrium framework, we assume that firms are heterogenous with different degrees of risk and households invest in human capital development. With the help of Indian household level data we show that the informal market reduces the cost of rationing by increasing the growth rate by 0.7 percent. This higher growth rate, in the presence of an informal sector, is due to the ability of the informal market to separate the high risk from the low risk firms thanks to better information. But even after such improvement we do not get the optimum outcome. The findings, based on our second question, suggest that the revelation of firms' type, based on incentive compatible pricing, can lead to almost 2 percent higher growth rate as compared to the credit rationing regime with informal sector.

Risk, Transaction Costs, and Tax Assignment: Government Finance in the Ottoman Empire

Risk and transaction costs often provide competing explanations of institutional outcomes. In this paper we argue that they offer opposing predictions regarding the assignment of fixed and variable taxes in a multi-tiered governmental structure. While the central government can pool regional risks from variable taxes, local governments can measure variable tax bases more accurately. Evidence on tax assignment from the mid-sixteenth century Ottoman Empire supports the transaction cost explanation, suggesting that risk matters less because insurance can be obtained in a variety of ways.

Agricultural Productivity in the Early Ottoman Empire

This paper provides standardized estimates of labor productivity in arable farming in selected regions of the early Ottoman Empire, including Jerusalem and neighboring districts in eastern Mediterranean; Bursa and Malatya in Anatolia; and Thessaly, Herzegovina, and Budapest in eastern Europe. I use data from the tax registers of the Ottoman Empire to estimate grain output per worker, standardized (in bushels of wheat equivalent) to allow productivity comparisons within these regions and with other times and places. The results suggest that Ottoman agriculture in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries had achieved levels of labor productivity that compared favorably even with most European countries circa 1850.