Does cigarette smoking modify the association between change in body mass index during young adulthood and risk of coronary mortality during middle-age in men? Twenty-five year follow-up results from the Chicago Western Electric Study

Many persons in the U.S. gain weight during young adulthood, and the prevalence of obesity has been increasing among young adults. Although obesity and physical inactivity are generally recognized as risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD), the magnitude of their effect on risk may have been seriously underestimated due to failure to adequately handle the problem of cigarette smoking. Since cigarette smoking causes weight loss, physically inactive cigarette smokers may remain relatively lean because they smoke cigarettes. We hypothesize cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain during young adulthood and risk of coronary heart disease during middle age, and that the true effect of weight gain during young adulthood on risk of CHD can be assessed only in persons who have not smoked cigarettes. Specifically, we hypothesize that weight gain during young adulthood is positively associated with risk of CHD during middle-age in nonsmokers but that the association is much smaller or absent entirely among cigarette smokers. The purpose of this study was to test this hypothesis. The population for analysis was comprised of 1,934 middle-aged, employed men whose average age at the baseline examination was 48.7 years. Information collected at the baseline examinations in 1958 and 1959 included recalled weight at age 20, present weight, height, smoking status, and other CHD risk factors. To decrease the effect of intraindividual variation, the mean values of the 1958 and 1959 baseline examinations were used in analyses. Change in body mass index ($\Delta$BMI) during young adulthood was the primary exposure variable and was measured as BMI at baseline (kg/m$\sp2)$ minus BMI at age 20 (kg/m$\sp2).$ Proportional hazards regression analysis was used to generate relative risks of CHD mortality by category of $\Delta$BMI and cigarette smoking status after adjustment for age, family history of CVD, major organ system disease, BMI at age 20, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. Adjustment was not performed for systolic blood pressure or total serum cholesterol as these were regarded as intervening variables. Vital status was known for all men on the 25th anniversary of their baseline examinations. 705 deaths (including 319 CHD deaths) occurred over 40,136 person-years of experience. $\Delta$BMI was positively associated with risk of CHD mortality in never-smokers, but not in ever-smokers (p for interaction = 0.067). For never-smokers with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 1.62, 1.61, and 2.78, respectively (p for trend = 0.010). For ever-smokers, with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 0.74, 1.07, and 1.06, respectively (p for trend = 0.422). These results support the research hypothesis that cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain and CHD mortality. Current estimates of the magnitude of effect of obesity and physical inactivity on risk of coronary mortality may have been seriously underestimated due to inadequate handling of cigarette smoking. ^

Perinatal mortality and quality of care at the National Institute of Perinatology: A 3-year analysis

Quality of medical care has been indirectly assessed through the collection of negative outcomes. A preventable death is one that could have been avoided if optimum care had been offered. The general objective of the present project was to analyze the perinatal mortality at the National Institute of Perinatology (located in Mexico City) by social, biological and some available components of quality of care such as avoidability, provider responsibility, and structure and process deficiencies in the delivery of medical care. A Perinatal Mortality Committee data base was utilized. The study population consisted of all singleton perinatal deaths occurring between January 1, 1988 and June 30, 1991 (n = 522). A proportionate study was designed.^ The population studied mostly corresponded to married young adult mothers, who were residents of urban areas, with an educational level of junior high school or more, two to three pregnancies, and intermediate prenatal care. The mean gestational age at birth was 33.4 $\pm$ 3.9 completed weeks and the mean birthweight at birth was 1,791.9 $\pm$ 853.1 grams.^ Thirty-five percent of perinatal deaths were categorized as avoidable. Postnatal infection and premature rupture of membranes were the most frequent primary causes of avoidable perinatal death. The avoidable perinatal mortality rate was 8.7 per 1000 and significantly declined during the study period (p $<$.05). Preventable perinatal mortality aggregated data suggested that at least part of the mortality decline for amenable conditions was due to better medical care.^ Structure deficiencies were present in 35% of avoidable deaths and process deficiencies were present in 79%. Structure deficiencies remained constant over time. Process deficiencies consisted of diagnosis failures (45.8%) and treatment failures (87.3%), they also remained constant through the years. Party responsibility was as follows: Obstetric (35.4%), pediatric (41.4%), institutional (26.5%), and patient (6.6%). Obstetric responsibility significantly increased during the study period (p $<$.05). Pediatric responsibility declined only for newborns less than 1500 g (p $<$.05). Institutional responsibility remained constant.^ Process deficiencies increased the risk for an avoidable death eightfold (confidence interval 1.7-41.4, p $<$.01) and provider responsibility ninety-fivefold (confidence interval 14.8-612.1, p $<$.001), after adjustment for several confounding variables. Perinatal mortality due to prematurity, barotrauma and nosocomial infection, was highly preventable, but not that due to transpartum asphyxia. Once specific deficiencies in the quality of care have been identified, quality assurance actions should begin. ^

Cardiovascular diseases risk factors during the first year of life

The pattern of change in cardiovascular risk factors, blood pressure (SBP and DBP) and plasma total cholesterol (TC), over time, their tracking and their relation to anthropometric measurements during the first year of life were investigated. Also, the effect of breast feeding on TC and the relationship of blood pressure measurements and family history of CVD risk factors were examined. One hundred five newborn term, healthy infants who were seen at a pediatric clinic in The Woodlands, Texas were followed longitudinally from 2 weeks to 1 year of age. TC, blood pressure, weight and length of the infants were measured at age 2 weeks, and again at 2, 4, 6, 9 and 12 months. In addition, family history, maternal and paternal, of CVD risk factors was obtained. Data analyses included only 40 infants who completed one year of follow up.^ At 2 weeks of age, the median value for TC was 23 mg/dl higher for females than for males. This difference disappeared as infants got older. For males, most of the increase in TC median levels, from 114 to 137 mg/dl, occurred between the ages of 2 weeks and 2 months, whereas for the female group, TC levels increased moderately, about 10 mg/dl, between 9 and 12 months of age. Tracking of TC was examined by using Spearman's correlation analysis. There were strong correlations between measurements taken as early as 2 weeks of age with later measurements. These correlations were stronger and more significant for males than for females (for males, r varied between 0.51 to 0.70, whereas for females, r varied between 0.11 to 0.70). The association of body measurements with TC is no more than modest and is closer for female infants than for male infants. Analysis, also, showed that infants who received breast milk had a TC mean value 47 mg/dl higher than that for infants who received formula milk only during the period of breast feeding and this difference disappeared by age 12 months.^ In both genders, most of the increase in blood pressure (about 10-15 mmHg in both SBP and DBP) occurred during the first 4 months of life. Most of the increase for male infants occurred during the first 2 months of life, while for females, the increase in SBP and DBP was between the age of 2 and 4 months. Neither SBP nor DBP track well during the first year of life and most of the correlations between measurements at different ages were not significant for either gender. The cross-sectional relationship of blood pressure measurements and selected body measurements was assessed. For females, only at age of 12 months did DBP have positive and significant correlations with weight, length and Quetelet index (r = 0.57, 0.60 and 0.57, respectively). There were no significant correlations between blood pressure and body measurements for males. Finally, analysis showed that maternal history of CV risk factors was significantly related to SBP in the female infant group, but not for males. For DBP, neither maternal nor paternal history was related. ^