Tracking of plasma lipids and lipoproteins, within-person and year-to-year variability in plasma cholesterol levels among participants from age 8 to 18 in Project HeartBeat!

Coronary heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States and increased blood cholesterol level has been found to be a major risk factor with roots in childhood. Tracking of cholesterol, i.e., the tendency to maintain a particular cholesterol level relative to the rest of the population, and variability in blood lipid levels with increase in age have implications for cholesterol screening and assessment of lipid levels in children for possible prevention of further rise to prevent adulthood heart disease. In this study the pattern of change in plasma lipids, over time, and their tracking were investigated. Also, within-person variance and retest reliability defined as the square root of within-person variance for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides and their relation to age, sex and body mass index among participants from age 8 to 18 years were investigated. ^ In Project HeartBeat!, 678 healthy children aged 8, 11 and 14 years at baseline were enrolled and examined at 4-monthly intervals for up to 4 years. We examined the relationship between repeated observations by Pearson's correlations. Age- and sex-specific quintiles were calculated and the probability of participants to remain in the uppermost quintile of their respective distribution was evaluated with life table methods. Plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C at baseline were strongly and significantly correlated with measurements at subsequent visits across the sex and age groups. Plasma triglyceride at baseline was also significantly correlated with subsequent measurements but less strongly than was the case for other plasma lipids. The probability to remain in the upper quintile was also high (60 to 70%) for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C. ^ We used a mixed longitudinal, or synthetic cohort design with continuous observations from age 8 to 18 years to estimate within person variance of plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides. A total of 5809 measurements were available for both cholesterol and triglycerides. A multilevel linear model was used. Within-person variance among repeated measures over up to four years of follow-up was estimated for total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides separately. The relationship of within-person and inter-individual variance with age, sex, and body mass index was evaluated. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted by calculating the deviation of −2log (likelihood) within the basic model and alternative models. The square root of within-person variance provided the retest reliability (within person standard deviation) for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides. We found 13.6 percent retest reliability for plasma cholesterol, 6.1 percent for HDL-cholesterol, 11.9 percent for LDL-cholesterol and 32.4 percent for triglycerides. Retest reliability of plasma lipids was significantly related with age and body mass index. It increased with increase in body mass index and age. These findings have implications for screening guidelines, as participants in the uppermost quintile tended to maintain their status in each of the age groups during a four-year follow-up. The magnitude of within-person variability of plasma lipids influences the ability to classify children into risk categories recommended by the National Cholesterol Education Program. ^

Diabetes genes and risk of prostate cancer in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, yet the etiology remains uncertain. Meta-analyses show that PrCa risk is reduced by 16% in men with type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the mechanism is unknown. Recent genome-wide association studies and meta-analyses have found single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that consistently predict T2D risk. We evaluated associations of incident PrCa with 14 T2D SNPs in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. From 1987-2000, there were 397 incident PrCa cases ascertained from state or local cancer registries among 6,642 men (1,560 blacks and 5,082 whites) aged 45-64 years at baseline. Genotypes were determined by TaqMan assay. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between PrCa and increasing number of T2D risk-raising alleles for individual SNPs and for genetic risk scores (GRS) comprised of the number of T2D risk-raising alleles across SNPs. Two-way gene-gene interactions were evaluated with likelihood ratio tests. Using additive genetic models, the T2D risk-raising allele was associated with significantly reduced risk of PrCa for IGF2BP2 rs4402960 (hazard ratio [HR]=0.79; P=0.07 among blacks only), SLC2A2 rs5400 (race-adjusted HR=0.85; P=0.05) and UCP2 rs660339 (race-adjusted HR=0.84; P=0.02), but significantly increased risk of PrCa for CAPN10 rs3792267 (race-adjusted HR=1.20; P=0.05). No other SNPs were associated with PrCa using an additive genetic model. However, at least one copy of the T2D risk-raising allele for TCF7L2 rs7903146 was associated with reduced PrCa risk using a dominant genetic model (race-adjusted HR=0.79; P=0.03). These results imply that the T2D-PrCa association may be partly due to shared genetic variation, but these results should be verified since multiple tests were performed. When the combined, additive effects of these SNPs were tested using a GRS, there was nearly a 10% reduction in risk of PrCa per T2D risk-raising allele (race-adjusted HR=0.92; P=0.02). SNPs in IGF2BP2, KCNJ11 and SLC2A2 were also involved in multiple synergistic gene-gene interactions on a multiplicative scale. In conclusion, it appears that the T2D-PrCa association may be due, in part, to common genetic variation. Further knowledge of T2D gene-PrCa mechanisms may improve understanding of PrCa etiology and may inform PrCa prevention and treatment.^

Bayesian generalized linear models for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests

With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

Outcome-based adaptive randomization for binary data in clinical trials---Compare and contrast

Monte Carlo simulation has been conducted to investigate parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in some well known adaptive randomization procedures. The four urn models studied are Randomized Play-the-Winner (RPW), Randomized Pôlya Urn (RPU), Birth and Death Urn with Immigration (BDUI), and Drop-the-Loses Urn (DL). Two sequential estimation methods, the sequential maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE) and the doubly adaptive biased coin design (DABC), are simulated at three optimal allocation targets that minimize the expected number of failures under the assumption of constant variance of simple difference (RSIHR), relative risk (ORR), and odds ratio (OOR) respectively. Log likelihood ratio test and three Wald-type tests (simple difference, log of relative risk, log of odds ratio) are compared in different adaptive procedures. ^ Simulation results indicates that although RPW is slightly better in assigning more patients to the superior treatment, the DL method is considerably less variable and the test statistics have better normality. When compared with SMLE, DABC has slightly higher overall response rate with lower variance, but has larger bias and variance in parameter estimation. Additionally, the test statistics in SMLE have better normality and lower type I error rate, and the power of hypothesis testing is more comparable with the equal randomization. Usually, RSIHR has the highest power among the 3 optimal allocation ratios. However, the ORR allocation has better power and lower type I error rate when the log of relative risk is the test statistics. The number of expected failures in ORR is smaller than RSIHR. It is also shown that the simple difference of response rates has the worst normality among all 4 test statistics. The power of hypothesis test is always inflated when simple difference is used. On the other hand, the normality of the log likelihood ratio test statistics is robust against the change of adaptive randomization procedures. ^

Genome-wide association study of LDL-cholesterol over ApoB ratio

Genome-Wide Association Study analytical (GWAS) methods were applied in a large biracial sample of individuals to investigate variation across the genome for its association with a surrogate low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particle size phenotype, the ratio of LDL-cholesterol level over ApoB level. Genotyping was performed on the Affymetrix 6.0 GeneChip with approximately one million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The ratio of LDL cholesterol to ApoB was calculated, and association tests used multivariable linear regression analysis with an additive genetic model after adjustment for the covariates sex, age and BMI. Association tests were performed separately in African Americans and Caucasians. There were 9,562 qualified individuals in the Caucasian group and 3,015 qualified individuals in the African American group. Overall, in Caucasians two statistically significant loci were identified as being associated with the ratio of LDL-cholesterol over ApoB: rs10488699 (p<5 x10-8, 11q23.3 near BUD13) and the SNP rs964184 (p<5 x10-8 11q23.3 near ZNF259). We also found rs12286037 ((p<4x10-7) (11q23.3) near APOA5/A4/C3/A1 with suggestive associate in the Caucasian sample. In exploratory analyses, a difference in the pattern of association between individuals taking and not taking LDL-cholesterol lowering medications was observed. Individuals who were not taking medications had smaller p-value than those taking medication. In the African-American group, there were no significant (p<5x10-8) or suggestive associations (p<4x10-7) with the ratio of LDL-cholesterol over ApoB after adjusting for age, BMI, and sex and comparing individuals with and without LDL-cholesterol lowering medication. Conclusions: There were significant and suggestive associations between SNP genotype and the ratio of LDL-cholesterol to ApoB in Caucasians, but these associations may be modified by medication treatment.^

A hybrid method in combining treatment effects from matched and unmatched studies

In the biomedical studies, the general data structures have been the matched (paired) and unmatched designs. Recently, many researchers are interested in Meta-Analysis to obtain a better understanding from several clinical data of a medical treatment. The hybrid design, which is combined two data structures, may create the fundamental question for statistical methods and the challenges for statistical inferences. The applied methods are depending on the underlying distribution. If the outcomes are normally distributed, we would use the classic paired and two independent sample T-tests on the matched and unmatched cases. If not, we can apply Wilcoxon signed rank and rank sum test on each case. ^ To assess an overall treatment effect on a hybrid design, we can apply the inverse variance weight method used in Meta-Analysis. On the nonparametric case, we can use a test statistic which is combined on two Wilcoxon test statistics. However, these two test statistics are not in same scale. We propose the Hybrid Test Statistic based on the Hodges-Lehmann estimates of the treatment effects, which are medians in the same scale.^ To compare the proposed method, we use the classic meta-analysis T-test statistic on the combined the estimates of the treatment effects from two T-test statistics. Theoretically, the efficiency of two unbiased estimators of a parameter is the ratio of their variances. With the concept of Asymptotic Relative Efficiency (ARE) developed by Pitman, we show ARE of the hybrid test statistic relative to classic meta-analysis T-test statistic using the Hodges-Lemann estimators associated with two test statistics.^ From several simulation studies, we calculate the empirical type I error rate and power of the test statistics. The proposed statistic would provide effective tool to evaluate and understand the treatment effect in various public health studies as well as clinical trials.^