Forecasting cost based on a stochastic utilization plan and a fixed cost function

The application of Markov processes is very useful to health-care problems. The objective of this study is to provide a structured methodology of forecasting cost based upon combining a stochastic model of utilization (Markov Chain) and deterministic cost function. The perspective of the cost in this study is the reimbursement for the services rendered. The data to be used is the OneCare database of claim records of their enrollees over a two-year period of January 1, 1996–December 31, 1997. The model combines a Markov Chain that describes the utilization pattern and its variability where the use of resources by risk groups (age, gender, and diagnosis) will be considered in the process and a cost function determined from a fixed schedule based on real costs or charges for those in the OneCare claims database. The cost function is a secondary application to the model. Goodness-of-fit will be used checked for the model against the traditional method of cost forecasting. ^

Explanations for unsuccessful weight loss among bariatric surgery candidates.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to analyze subjective explanations for unsuccessful weight loss among bariatric surgery candidates. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of 909 bariatric surgery candidates (78.2% female, average body mass index [BMI] 47.3) at a university center from 2001 to April 2007 who answered an open-ended question about why they were unable to lose weight. We generated a coding scheme for answers to the question and established inter-rater reliability of the coding process. Associations with demographic parameters and initial BMI were tested. RESULTS: The most common categories of answers were nonspecific explanations related to diet (25.3%), physical activity (21.0%), or motivation (19.7%), followed by diet-related motivation (12.7%) and medical conditions or medications affecting physical activity (12.7%). Categories related to time, financial cost, social support, physical environment, and knowledge occurred in less than 4% each. Men were more likely than women to cite a medical condition or medication affecting physical activity (19.2% vs 10.8%, P = 0.002, odds ratio [OR] = 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28-2.99) but less likely to cite diet-related motivation (7.1% vs 14.2%, P = 0.008, OR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.26-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that addressing diet, physical activity, and motivation in a comprehensive approach would meet the stated needs of obese patients. Raising patient awareness of under-recognized barriers to weight loss, such as the physical environment and lack of social support, should also be considered. Lastly, anticipating gender-specific attributions may facilitate tailoring of interventions.

Symmetric inverse consistent nonlinear registration driven by mutual information.

A nonlinear viscoelastic image registration algorithm based on the demons paradigm and incorporating inverse consistent constraint (ICC) is implemented. An inverse consistent and symmetric cost function using mutual information (MI) as a similarity measure is employed. The cost function also includes regularization of transformation and inverse consistent error (ICE). The uncertainties in balancing various terms in the cost function are avoided by alternatively minimizing the similarity measure, the regularization of the transformation, and the ICE terms. The diffeomorphism of registration for preventing folding and/or tearing in the deformation is achieved by the composition scheme. The quality of image registration is first demonstrated by constructing brain atlas from 20 adult brains (age range 30-60). It is shown that with this registration technique: (1) the Jacobian determinant is positive for all voxels and (2) the average ICE is around 0.004 voxels with a maximum value below 0.1 voxels. Further, the deformation-based segmentation on Internet Brain Segmentation Repository, a publicly available dataset, has yielded high Dice similarity index (DSI) of 94.7% for the cerebellum and 74.7% for the hippocampus, attesting to the quality of our registration method.

An empirical examination of relative profitability in the nursing facility industry between ownership form and regionality in the state of Texas

The purpose of this research is to examine the relative profitability of the firm within the nursing facility industry in Texas. An examination is made of the variables expected to affect profitability and of importance to the design and implementation of regulatory policy. To facilitate this inquiry, specific questions addressed are: (1) Do differences in ownership form affect profitability (defined as operating income before fixed costs)? (2) What impact does regional location have on profitability? (3) Do patient case-mix and access to care by Medicaid patients differ between proprietary and non-profit firms and facilities located in urban versus rural regions, and what association exists between these variables and profitability? (4) Are economies of scale present in the nursing home industry? (5) Do nursing facilities operate in a competitive output market characterized by the inability of a single firm to exhibit influence over market price?^ Prior studies have principally employed a cost function to assess efficiency differences between classifications of nursing facilities. The inherent weakness in this approach is that it only considers technical efficiency. Not both technical and price efficiency which are the two components of overall economic efficiency. One firm is more technically efficient compared to another if it is able to produce a given quantity of output at the least possible costs. Price efficiency means that scarce resources are being directed towards their most valued use. Assuming similar prices in both input and output markets, differences in overall economic efficiency between firm classes are assessed through profitability, hence a profit function.^ Using the framework of the profit function, data from 1990 Medicaid Costs Reports for Texas, and the analytic technique of Ordinary Least Squares Regression, the findings of the study indicated (1) similar profitability between nursing facilities organized as for-profit versus non-profit and located in urban versus rural regions, (2) an inverse association between both payor-mix and patient case-mix with profitability, (3) strong evidence for the presence of scale economies, and (4) existence of a competitive market structure. The paper concludes with implications regarding reimbursement methodology and construction moratorium policies in Texas. ^

Multiple retinal detachment surgery: A functional outcome study. The Houston Vision Assessment Test-Retina (HVAT-Retina)

Retinal detachment is a common ophthalmologic procedure, and outcome is typically measured by a single factor-improvement in visual acuity. Health related functional outcome testing, which quantifies patient's self-reported perception of impairment, can be integrated with objective clinical findings. Based on the patient's self-assessed lifestyle impairment, the physician and patient together can make an informed decision on the treatment that is most likely to benefit the patient. ^ A functional outcome test (the Houston Vision Assessment Test-Retina; HVAT-Retina) was developed and validated in patients with multiple retinal detachments in the same eye. The HVAT-Retina divides an estimated total impairment into subcomponents: contribution of visual disability (potentially correctable by retinal detachment surgery) and nonvisual physical disabilities (co-morbidities not affected by retinal detachment surgery. ^ Seventy-six patients participated in this prospective multicenter study. Seven patients were excluded from the analysis because they were not certain of their answers. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.91 for presurgery HVAT-Retina and 0.94 post-surgery. The item-to-total correlation ranged from 0.50 to 0.88. Visual impairment score improved by 9 points from pre-surgery (p = 0.0003). Physical impairment score also improved from pre-surgery (p = 0.0002). ^ In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrate that the instrument is reliable and valid in patients presenting with recurrent retinal detachments. The HVAT-Retina is a simple instrument and does not burden the patient or the health professional in terms of time or cost. It may be self-administrated, not requiring an interviewer. Because the HVAT-Retina was designed to demonstrate outcomes perceivable by the patient, it has the potential to guide the decision making process between patient and physician. ^