PROJECTION OF HEALTH DEMAND IN TERMS OF HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS FOR SELECTED DIAGNOSES IN HEALTH SYSTEMS AGENCY SERVICE AREAS

The National Health Planning and Resources Development Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-641) requires that health systems agencies (HSAs) plan for their health service areas by the use of existing data to the maximum extent practicable. Health planning is based on the identificaton of health needs; however, HSAs are, at present, identifying health needs in their service areas in some approximate terms. This lack of specificity has greatly reduced the effectiveness of health planning. The intent of this study is, therefore, to explore the feasibility of predicting community levels of hospitalized morbidity by diagnosis by the use of existing data so as to allow health planners to plan for the services associated with specific diagnoses.^ The specific objectives of this study are (a) to obtain by means of multiple regression analysis a prediction equation for hospital admission by diagnosis, i.e., select the variables that are related to demand for hospital admissions; (b) to examine how pertinent the variables selected are; and (c) to see if each equation obtained predicts well for health service areas.^ The existing data on hospital admissions by diagnosis are those collected from the National Hospital Discharge Surveys, and are available in a form aggregated to the nine census divisions. When the equations established with such data are applied to local health service areas for prediction, the application is subject to the criticism of the theory of ecological fallacy. Since HSAs have to rely on the availability of existing data, it is imperative to examine whether or not the theory of ecological fallacy holds true in this case.^ The results of the study show that the equations established are highly significant and the independent variables in the equations explain the variation in the demand for hospital admission well. The predictability of these equations is good when they are applied to areas at the same ecological level but become poor, predominantly due to ecological fallacy, when they are applied to health service areas.^ It is concluded that HSAs can not predict hospital admissions by diagnosis without primary data collection as discouraged by Public Law 93-641. ^

Policy analysis of shifting to the state-run Texas women's health program

During the 82nd Texas legislature, state leaders passed a provision stating that healthcare providers, who perform, promote, or affiliate with providers who perform or promote elective abortion services may not be eligible to participate in the Texas Medicaid Women's Health Program (WHP). The federal government reacted to this new provision by vowing to eliminate its 90% share of program support on the grounds that the provision violated a patient's freedom to choose a provider; a right protected by the Social Security Act. Texas leaders stated that the Women's Health Program would continue without federal support, financed exclusively with state funds.^ The following policy analysis compares the projected impact of the current Medicaid Women's Health Program to the proposed state-run program using the criteria-alternative matrix framework. The criteria used to evaluate the program alternatives include population affected, unintended pregnancy and abortion impact, impact on cervical cancer rate, and state-level government expenditures. Each criterion was defined by selected measures. The population affected was measured by the number of women served in the programs. Government expenditures were measured in terms of payments for program costs, Medicaid delivery costs, and cervical cancer diagnostic costs. Unintended pregnancy impact was measured by the number of projected unplanned pregnancies and abortions under each alternative. The impact on cervical cancer was projected in terms of the number of new cervical cancer cases under each alternative. Differences in the projections with respect to each criterion were compared to assess the impact of shifting to the state-only policy.^ After examining program alternatives, it is highly recommended that Texas retain the Medicaid WHP. If the state does decide to move forward with the state-run WHP, it is recommended that the program run at its previous capacity. Furthermore, for the purpose of addressing the relatively high cervical cancer incidence rate in Texas, incorporating HPV vaccination coverage for women ages 18-26 as part of the Women's Health Program is recommended.^