NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

Mutual Information for Testing Gene-Environment Interaction

Despite current enthusiasm for investigation of gene-gene interactions and gene-environment interactions, the essential issue of how to define and detect gene-environment interactions remains unresolved. In this report, we define gene-environment interactions as a stochastic dependence in the context of the effects of the genetic and environmental risk factors on the cause of phenotypic variation among individuals. We use mutual information that is widely used in communication and complex system analysis to measure gene-environment interactions. We investigate how gene-environment interactions generate the large difference in the information measure of gene-environment interactions between the general population and a diseased population, which motives us to develop mutual information-based statistics for testing gene-environment interactions. We validated the null distribution and calculated the type 1 error rates for the mutual information-based statistics to test gene-environment interactions using extensive simulation studies. We found that the new test statistics were more powerful than the traditional logistic regression under several disease models. Finally, in order to further evaluate the performance of our new method, we applied the mutual information-based statistics to three real examples. Our results showed that P-values for the mutual information-based statistics were much smaller than that obtained by other approaches including logistic regression models.

Acetate metabolism and the control of environmental pH in Candida albicans and Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Candida albicans is the most common opportunistic fungal pathogen of humans. The balance between commensal and pathogenic C. albicans is maintained largely by phagocytes of the innate immune system. Analysis of transcriptional changes after macrophage phagocytosis indicates the C. albicans response is broadly similar to starvation, including up-regulation of alternate carbon metabolism. Systems known and suspected to be part of acetate/acetyl-CoA metabolism were also up-regulated, importantly the ACH and ACS genes, which manage acetate/acetyl-CoA interconversion, and the nine-member ATO gene family, thought to participate in transmembrane acetate transport and also linked to the process of environmental alkalinization. ^ Studies into the roles of Ach, Acs1 and Acs2 function in alternate carbon metabolism revealed a substantial role for Acs2 and lesser, but distinct roles, for Ach and Acs1. Deletion mutants were made in C. albicans and were phenotypically evaluated both in vitro and in vivo. Loss of Ach function resulted in mild growth defects on ethanol and acetate and no significant attenuation in virulence in a disseminated mouse model of infection. While loss of Acs1 did not produce any significant phenotypes, loss of Acs2 greatly impaired growth on multiple carbon sources, including glucose, ethanol and acetate. We also concluded that ACS1 and ACS2 likely comprise an essential gene pair. Expression analyses indicated that ACS2 is the predominant form under most growth conditions. ^ ATO gene function had been linked to the process of environmental alkalinization, an ammonium-mediated phenomenon described here first in C. albicans. During growth in glucose-poor, amino acid-rich conditions C. albicans can rapidly change its extracellular pH. This process was glucose-repressible and was accompanied by hyphal formation and changes in colony morphology. We showed that introduction of the ATO1G53D point mutant to C. albicans blocked alkalinization, as did over-expression of C. albicans ATO2, the only C. albicans ATO gene to lack the conserved N-terminal domain. A screen for alkalinization-deficient mutants revealed that ACH1 is essential for alkalinization. However, addition of acetate to the media restored alkalinization to the ach1 mutant. We proposed a model of ATO function in which Atos regulated the cellular co-export of ammonium and acetate. ^

Comparison of OG1RF and an isogenic fsrB deletion mutant by transcriptional analysis: the Fsr system of Enterococcus faecalis is more than the activator of gelatinase and serine protease.

The FsrABC system of Enterococcus faecalis controls the expression of gelatinase and a serine protease via a quorum-sensing mechanism, and recent studies suggest that the Fsr system may also regulate other genes important for virulence. To investigate the possibility that Fsr influences the expression of additional genes, we used transcriptional profiling, with microarrays based on the E. faecalis strain V583 sequence, to compare the E. faecalis strain OG1RF with its isogenic mutant, TX5266, an fsrB deletion mutant. We found that the presence of an intact fsrB influences expression of numerous genes throughout the growth phases tested, namely, late log to early stationary phase. In addition, the Fsr regulon is independent of the activity of the proteases, GelE and SprE, whose expression was confirmed to be activated at all three time points tested. While expression of some genes (i.e., ef1097 and ef0750 to -757, encoding hypothetical proteins) was activated in late log phase in OG1RF versus the fsrB deletion mutant, expression of ef1617 to -1634 (eut-pdu orthologues) was highly repressed by the presence of an intact Fsr at entry into stationary phase. This is the first time that Fsr has been characterized as a negative regulator. The newly recognized Fsr-regulated targets include other factors, besides gelatinase, described as important for biofilms (BopD), and genes predicted to encode the surface proteins EF0750 to -0757 and EF1097, along with proteins implicated in several metabolic pathways, indicating that the FsrABC system may be an important regulator in strain OG1RF, with both positive and negative effects.

Detection and sequence analysis of a nickel-induced mutation in a retroviral model system

We have developed a novel way to assess the mutagenicity of environmentally important metal carcinogens, such as nickel, by creating a positive selection system based upon the conditional expression of a retroviral transforming gene. The target gene is the v-mos gene in MuSVts110, a murine retrovirus possessing a growth temperature dependent defect in expression of the transforming gene due to viral RNA splicing. In normal rat kidney cells infected with MuSVts110 (6m2 cells), splicing of the MuSVts110 RNA to form the mRNA from which the transforming protein, p85$\sp{\rm gag-mos}$, is translated is growth-temperature dependent, occurring at 33 C and below but not at 39 C and above. This splicing "defect" is mediated by cis-acting viral sequences. Nickel chloride treatment of 6m2 cells followed by growth at 39 C, allowed the selection of "revertant" cells which constitutively express p85$\sp{\rm gag-mos}$ due to stable changes in the viral RNA splicing phenotype, suggesting that nickel, a carcinogen whose mutagenicity has not been well established, could induce mutations in mammalian genes. We also show by direct sequencing of PCR-amplified integrated MuSVts110 DNA from a 6m2 nickel-revertant cell line that the nickel-induced mutation affecting the splicing phenotype is a cis-acting 70-base duplication of a region of the viral DNA surrounding the 3$\sp\prime$ splice site. These findings provide the first example of the molecular basis for a nickel-induced DNA lesion and establish the mutagenicity of this potent carcinogen. ^

The Texas driver responsibility program: A preliminary analysis of the impact on impaired driving and trauma system funding

Objective. In 2003, the State of Texas instituted the Driver Responsibility Program (TDRP), a program consisting of a driving infraction point system coupled with a series of graded fines and annual surcharges for specific traffic violations such as driving while intoxicated (DWI). Approximately half of the revenues generated are earmarked to be disbursed to the state's trauma system to cover uncompensated trauma care costs. This study examined initial program implementation, the impact of trauma system funding, and initial impact on impaired driving knowledge, attitudes and behaviors. A model for targeted media campaigns to improve the program's deterrence effects was developed. ^ Methods. Data from two independent driver survey samples (conducted in 1999 and 2005), department of public safety records, state health department data and a state auditor's report were used to evaluate the program's initial implementation, impact and outcome with respect to drivers' impaired driving knowledge, attitudes and behavior (based on constructs of social cognitive theory) and hospital uncompensated trauma care funding. Survey results were used to develop a regression model of high risk drivers who should be targeted to improve program outcome with respect to deterring impaired driving. ^ Results. Low driver compliance with fee payment (28%) and program implementation problems were associated with lower surcharge revenues in the first two years ($59.5 million versus $525 million predicted). Program revenue distribution to trauma hospitals was associated with a 16% increase in designated trauma centers. Survey data demonstrated that only 28% of drivers are aware of the TDRP and that there has been no initial impact on impaired driving behavior. Logistical regression modeling suggested that target media campaigns highlighting the likelihood of DWI detection by law enforcement and the increased surcharges associated with the TDRP are required to deter impaired driving. ^ Conclusions. Although the TDRP raised nearly $60 million in surcharge revenue for the Texas trauma system over the first two years, this study did not find evidence of a change in impaired driving knowledge, attitudes or behaviors from 1999 to 2005. Further research is required to measure whether the program is associated with decreased alcohol-related traffic fatalities. ^

Cost analysis of opt-in consent procedures for the Texas statewide immunization information system, ImmTrac

Background. Childhood immunization programs have dramatically reduced the morbidity and mortality associated with vaccine-preventable diseases. Proper documentation of immunizations that have been administered is essential to prevent duplicate immunization of children. To help improve documentation, immunization information systems (IISs) have been developed. IISs are comprehensive repositories of immunization information for children residing within a geographic region. The two models for participation in an IIS are voluntary inclusion, or "opt-in," and voluntary exclusion, or "opt-out." In an opt-in system, consent must be obtained for each participant, conversely, in an opt-out IIS, all children are included unless procedures to exclude the child are completed. Consent requirements for participation vary by state; the Texas IIS, ImmTrac, is an opt-in system.^ Objectives. The specific objectives are to: (1) Evaluate the variance among the time and costs associated with collecting ImmTrac consent at public and private birthing hospitals in the Greater Houston area; (2) Estimate the total costs associated with collecting ImmTrac consent at selected public and private birthing hospitals in the Greater Houston area; (3) Describe the alternative opt-out process for collecting ImmTrac consent at birth and discuss the associated cost savings relative to an opt-in system.^ Methods. Existing time-motion studies (n=281) conducted between October, 2006 and August, 2007 at 8 birthing hospitals in the Greater Houston area were used to assess the time and costs associated with obtaining ImmTrac consent at birth. All data analyzed are deidentified and contain no personal information. Variations in time and costs at each location were assessed and total costs per child and costs per year were estimated. The cost of an alternative opt-out system was also calculated.^ Results. The median time required by birth registrars to complete consent procedures varied from 72-285 seconds per child. The annual costs associated with obtaining consent for 388,285 newborns in ImmTrac's opt-in consent process were estimated at $702,000. The corresponding costs of the proposed opt-out system were estimated to total $194,000 per year. ^ Conclusions. Substantial variation in the time and costs associated with completion of ImmTrac consent procedures were observed. Changing to an opt-out system for participation could represent significant cost savings. ^

Improved Techniques for Acquisition and Analysis of Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Detecting Vascular Permeability in the Central Nervous System

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is a noninvasive technique for quantitative assessment of the integrity of blood-brain barrier and blood-spinal cord barrier (BSCB) in the presence of central nervous system pathologies. However, the results of DCE-MRI show substantial variability. The high variability can be caused by a number of factors including inaccurate T1 estimation, insufficient temporal resolution and poor contrast-to-noise ratio. My thesis work is to develop improved methods to reduce the variability of DCE-MRI results. To obtain fast and accurate T1 map, the Look-Locker acquisition technique was implemented with a novel and truly centric k-space segmentation scheme. In addition, an original multi-step curve fitting procedure was developed to increase the accuracy of T1 estimation. A view sharing acquisition method was implemented to increase temporal resolution, and a novel normalization method was introduced to reduce image artifacts. Finally, a new clustering algorithm was developed to reduce apparent noise in the DCE-MRI data. The performance of these proposed methods was verified by simulations and phantom studies. As part of this work, the proposed techniques were applied to an in vivo DCE-MRI study of experimental spinal cord injury (SCI). These methods have shown robust results and allow quantitative assessment of regions with very low vascular permeability. In conclusion, applications of the improved DCE-MRI acquisition and analysis methods developed in this thesis work can improve the accuracy of the DCE-MRI results.

Analysis of Agrobacterium tumefaciens VirB6 and VirB9 of the VirB /D4 type IV secretion system

Agrobacterium tumefaciens uses the VirB/D4 type IV secretion system (T4SS) to translocate oncogenic DNA (T-DNA) and protein substrates to plant cells. Independent of VirD4, the eleven VirB proteins are also essential for elaboration of a conjugative pilus termed the T pilus. The focus of this thesis is the characterization and analysis of two VirB proteins, VirB6 and VirB9, with respect to substrate translocation and T pilus biogenesis. Observed stabilizing effects of VirB6 on other VirB subunits and results of protein-protein interaction studies suggest that VirB6 mediates assembly of the secretion machine and T pilus through interactions with VirB7 and VirB9. Topology studies support a model for VirB6 as a polytopic membrane protein with a periplasmic N terminus, a large internal periplasmic loop, five transmembrane segments, and a cytoplasmic C terminus. Topology studies and Transfer DNA immunoprecipitation (TrIP) assays identified several important VirB6 functional domains: (i) the large internal periplasmic loop mediates interaction of VirB6 with the T-DNA, (ii) the membrane spanning region carboxyl-terminal to the large periplasmic loop mediates substrate transfer from VirB6 to VirB8, and (iii) the terminal regions of VirB6 are required for substrate transfer to VirB2 and VirB9. To analyze structure-function relationships of VirB9, the phenotypic consequences of dipeptide insertion mutations were characterized. Substrate discriminating mutations were shown to selectively export the oncogenic T-DNA and VirE2 to plant cells or a mobilizable IncQ plasmid to bacterial cells. Mutations affecting VirB9 interactions with VirB7 and VirB10 were localized to the C- and N- terminal regions respectively. Additionally, “uncoupling” mutations identified in VirB11 and VirB6 that block T pilus assembly, but not substrate transfer to recipient cells, were also identified in VirB9. These results in conjunction with computer analysis establish that VirB9, like VirB6, is also composed of distinct regions or domains that contribute in various ways to secretion channel activity and T pilus assembly. Lastly, in vivo immunofluorescent studies suggest that VirB9 localizes to the outer membrane and may play a role similar to that of secretion/ushers of types II and III secretion systems to facilitate substrate translocation across this final bacterial barrier. ^