The Elegant Simplicity of Family Preservation Practice Legecies and Lessons

An earlier version of this manuscript was prepared for the Chapin Hall invitational seminar on family preservation, The Chapin Hall Center for Children at the University of Chicago, September 16 & 17, 1999. The author wishes to acknowledge the comments and helpful suggestions of seminar participants-Jacqueline McCroskey, Martha Shirk, Fran Jacobs, John Schuerman, Lee Schorr, Charlotte Booth, Kristi Nelson, Susan Kelly, Frank Farrow, and Susan Notkin. These comments, as indeed many of their prior contributions, have had a seminal effect on my thinking about family preservation services over the years. Clark Peters and other Chapin Hall staff deserve special thanks for creating the conditions necessary to produce a lively and productive discussion. As always, Harold Richman, Executive Director of Chapin Hall, and Hermon Dunlap, Smith Professor at the School of Social Service Administration of the University of Chicago, as seminar convenor combined perfectly the skills of gracious host and incisive critic. We in the child welfare field are in his debt for continually raising the level of discourse in our field. In the end, as it should be, the thoughts and opinions in the following paper are wholly my own.

Spike timing dependent plasticity: a consequence of more fundamental learning rules.

Spike timing dependent plasticity (STDP) is a phenomenon in which the precise timing of spikes affects the sign and magnitude of changes in synaptic strength. STDP is often interpreted as the comprehensive learning rule for a synapse - the "first law" of synaptic plasticity. This interpretation is made explicit in theoretical models in which the total plasticity produced by complex spike patterns results from a superposition of the effects of all spike pairs. Although such models are appealing for their simplicity, they can fail dramatically. For example, the measured single-spike learning rule between hippocampal CA3 and CA1 pyramidal neurons does not predict the existence of long-term potentiation one of the best-known forms of synaptic plasticity. Layers of complexity have been added to the basic STDP model to repair predictive failures, but they have been outstripped by experimental data. We propose an alternate first law: neural activity triggers changes in key biochemical intermediates, which act as a more direct trigger of plasticity mechanisms. One particularly successful model uses intracellular calcium as the intermediate and can account for many observed properties of bidirectional plasticity. In this formulation, STDP is not itself the basis for explaining other forms of plasticity, but is instead a consequence of changes in the biochemical intermediate, calcium. Eventually a mechanism-based framework for learning rules should include other messengers, discrete change at individual synapses, spread of plasticity among neighboring synapses, and priming of hidden processes that change a synapse's susceptibility to future change. Mechanism-based models provide a rich framework for the computational representation of synaptic plasticity.

Body image rating scales to assess obesity

Obesity prevalence in the U.S. has increased during the last three decades with major impact on public health. Screening for obesity in a population with unknown weight status can be time- and resource-consuming, but the information is valuable for prioritizing and allocating scarce resources. The challenge remains to properly assess obesity with the available methods. Body Image Rating Scales (BIRS) have initially been developed to assess body image disturbances, but also seem useful as an alternative method in assessing obesity prevalence. Several different BIRS exists. In this project I reviewed the literature that exists regarding the use of BIRS, and its advantages and limitations for the assessment of obesity status with regards to BMI. The result yielded nine publications that examined eight different scales and their correlation with BMI, ranging from r=.59 for self-reported BMI to r=.94 for measured BMI. One concern is the lack of standardization of this method to assess obesity, given the range of different scales. While many methods for obesity assessment are available, the simplicity, ease of use and cost-effectiveness of BIRS make it very appealing. BIRS remain a potentially attractive option to assess the weight status of a large population with minimal requirements in assets and time, especially in situations where measuring instruments are not available, or when height or weight could not be recalled.^

HPV vaccine coverage in Texas counties: An application of multilevel, small area estimation

Health departments, research institutions, policy-makers, and healthcare providers are often interested in knowing the health status of their clients/constituents. Without the resources, financially or administratively, to go out into the community and conduct health assessments directly, these entities frequently rely on data from population-based surveys to supply the information they need. Unfortunately, these surveys are ill-equipped for the job due to sample size and privacy concerns. Small area estimation (SAE) techniques have excellent potential in such circumstances, but have been underutilized in public health due to lack of awareness and confidence in applying its methods. The goal of this research is to make model-based SAE accessible to a broad readership using clear, example-based learning. Specifically, we applied the principles of multilevel, unit-level SAE to describe the geographic distribution of HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas.^ Multilevel (3 level: individual, county, public health region) random-intercept logit models of HPV vaccination (receipt of ≥ 1 dose Gardasil® ) were fit to data from the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (outcome and level 1 covariates) and a number of secondary sources (group-level covariates). Sampling weights were scaled (level 1) or constructed (levels 2 & 3), and incorporated at every level. Using the regression coefficients (and standard errors) from the final models, I simulated 10,000 datasets for each regression coefficient from the normal distribution and applied them to the logit model to estimate HPV vaccine coverage in each county and respective demographic subgroup. For simplicity, I only provide coverage estimates (and 95% confidence intervals) for counties.^ County-level coverage among females aged 11-17 varied from 6.8-29.0%. For females aged 18-26, coverage varied from 1.9%-23.8%. Aggregated to the state level, these values translate to indirect state estimates of 15.5% and 11.4%, respectively; both of which fall within the confidence intervals for the direct estimates of HPV vaccine coverage in Texas (Females 11-17: 17.7%, 95% CI: 13.6, 21.9; Females 18-26: 12.0%, 95% CI: 6.2, 17.7).^ Small area estimation has great potential for informing policy, program development and evaluation, and the provision of health services. Harnessing the flexibility of multilevel, unit-level SAE to estimate HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas counties, I have provided (1) practical guidance on how to conceptualize and conduct modelbased SAE, (2) a robust framework that can be applied to other health outcomes or geographic levels of aggregation, and (3) HPV vaccine coverage data that may inform the development of health education programs, the provision of health services, the planning of additional research studies, and the creation of local health policies.^

THE USE OF ARM CIRCUMFERENCE FOR SIMPLIFIED SCREENING FOR MALNUTRITION BY MINIMALLY TRAINED HEALTH WORKERS

Because of its simplicity and low cost, arm circumference (AC) is being used increasingly in screening for protein energy malnutrition among pre-school children in many parts of the developing world, especially where minimally trained health workers are employed. The objectives of this study were as follows: (1) To determine the relationship of the AC measure with weight for age and weight for height in the detection of malnutrition among pre-school children in a Guatemalan Indian village. (2) To determine the performance of minimally trained promoters under field conditions in measuring AC, weight and height. (3) To describe the practical aspects of taking AC measures versus weight, age and height.^ The study was conducted in San Pablo La Laguna, one of four villages situated on the shores of Lake Atitlan, Guatemala, in which a program of simplified medical care was implemented by the Institute for Nutrition for Central America and Panama (INCAP). Weight, height, AC and age data were collected for 144 chronically malnourished children. The measurements obtained by the trained investigator under the controlled conditions of the health post were correlated against one another and AC was found to have a correlation with weight for age of 0.7127 and with weight for height of 0.7911, both well within the 0.65 to 0.80 range reported in the literature. False positive and false negative analysis showed that AC was more sensitive when compared with weight for height than with weight for age. This was fortunate since, especially in areas with widespread chronic malnutrition, weight for height detects those acute cases in immediate danger of complicating illness or death. Moreover, most of the cases identified as malnourished by AC, but not by weight for height (false positives), were either young or very stunted which made their selection by AC better than weight for height. The large number of cases detected by weight for age, but not by AC (false negative rate--40%) were, however, mostly beyond the critical age period and had normal weight for heights.^ The performance of AC, weight for height and weight for age under field conditions in the hands of minimally trained health workers was also analyzed by correlating these measurements against the same criterion measurements taken under ideally controlled conditions of the health post. AC had the highest correlation with itself indicating that it deteriorated the least in the move to the field. Moreover, there was a high correlation between AC in the field and criterion weight for height (0.7509); this correlation was almost as high as that for field weight for height versus the same measure in the health post (0.7588). The implication is that field errors are so great for the compounded weight for height variable that, in the field, AC is about as good a predictor of the ideal weight for height measure.^ Minimally trained health workers made more errors than the investigator as exemplified by their lower intra-observer correlation coefficients. They consistently measured larger than the investigator for all measures. Also there was a great deal of variability between these minimally trained workers indicating that careful training and followup is necessary for the success of the AC measure.^ AC has many practical advantages compared to the other anthropometric tools. It does not require age data, which are often unreliable in these settings, and does not require sophisticated subtraction and two dimensional table-handling skills that weight for age and weight for height require. The measure is also more easily applied with less disturbance to the child and the community. The AC tape is cheap and not easily damaged or jarred out of calibration while being transported in rugged settings, as is often the case with weight scales. Moreover, it can be kept in a health worker's pocket at all times for continual use in a widespread range of settings. ^

Modified 3+3 design for phase I clinical trials

Phase I clinical trial is mainly designed to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of a new drug. Optimization of phase I trial design is crucial to minimize the number of enrolled patients exposed to unsafe dose levels and to provide reliable information to the later phases of clinical trials. Although it has been criticized about its inefficient MTD estimation, nowadays the traditional 3+3 method remains dominant in practice due to its simplicity and conservative estimation. There are many new designs that have been proven to generate more credible MTD estimation, such as the Continual Reassessment Method (CRM). Despite its accepted better performance, the CRM design is still not widely used in real trials. There are several factors that contribute to the difficulties of CRM adaption in practice. First, CRM is not widely accepted by the regulatory agencies such as FDA in terms of safety. It is considered to be less conservative and tend to expose more patients above the MTD level than the traditional design. Second, CRM is relatively complex and not intuitive for the clinicians to fully understand. Third, the CRM method take much more time and need statistical experts and computer programs throughout the trial. The current situation is that the clinicians still tend to follow the trial process that they are comfortable with. This situation is not likely to change in the near future. Based on this situation, we have the motivation to improve the accuracy of MTD selection while follow the procedure of the traditional design to maintain simplicity. We found that in 3+3 method, the dose transition and the MTD determination are relatively independent. Thus we proposed to separate the two stages. The dose transition rule remained the same as 3+3 method. After getting the toxicity information from the dose transition stage, we combined the isotonic transformation to ensure the monotonic increasing order before selecting the optimal MTD. To compare the operating characteristics of the proposed isotonic method and the other designs, we carried out 10,000 simulation trials under different dose setting scenarios to compare the design characteristics of the isotonic modified method with standard 3+3 method, CRM, biased coin design (BC) and k-in-a-row design (KIAW). The isotonic modified method improved MTD estimation of the standard 3+3 in 39 out of 40 scenarios. The improvement is much greater when the target is 0.3 other than 0.25. The modified design is also competitive when comparing with other selected methods. A CRM method performed better in general but was not as stable as the isotonic method throughout the different dose settings. The results demonstrated that our proposed isotonic modified method is not only easily conducted using the same procedure as 3+3 but also outperforms the conventional 3+3 design. It can also be applied to determine MTD for any given TTL. These features make the isotonic modified method of practical value in phase I clinical trials.^

Structural conservations and diversities of dsRNA viruses: Structural studies of the cytoplasmic polyhedrosis virus by electron cryomicroscopy and 3D reconstruction

The Reoviridae virus family is a group of economically and pathologically important viruses that have either single-, double-, or triple-shelled protein layers enclosing a segmented double stranded RNA genome. Each virus particle in this family has its own viral RNA dependent RNA polymerase and the enzymatic activities necessary for the mature RNA synthesis. Based on the structure of the inner most cores of the viruses, the Reoviridae viruses can be divided into two major groups. One group of viruses has a smooth surfaced inner core, surrounded by complete outer shells of one or two protein layers. The other group has an inner core decorated with turrets on the five-fold vertices, and could either completely lack or have incomplete outer protein layers. The structural difference is one of the determinant factors for their biological differences during the infection. ^ Cytoplasmic polyhedrosis virus (CPV) is a single-shelled, turreted virus and the structurally simplest member in Reoviridae. It causes specific chronic infections in the insect gut epithelial cells. Due to its wide range of insect hosts, CPV has been engineered as a potential insecticide for use in fruit and vegetable farming. Its unique structural simplicity, unparalleled capsid stability and ease of purification make CPV an ideal model system for studying the structural basis of dsRNA virus assembly at the highest possible resolution by electron cryomicroscopy (cryoEM) and three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction. ^ In this thesis work, I determined the first 3D structure of CPV capsids using 100 kV cryoEM. At an effective resolution of 17 Å, the full capsid reveals a 600-Å diameter, T = 1 icosahedral shell decorated with A and B spikes at the 5-fold vertices. The internal space of the empty CPV is unoccupied except for 12 mushroom-shaped densities that are attributed to the transcriptional enzyme complexes. The inside of the full capsid is packed with icosahedrally-ordered viral genomic RNA. The interactions of viral RNA with the transcriptional enzyme complexes and other capsid proteins suggest a mechanism for RNA transcription and subsequent release. ^ Second, the interactions between the turret proteins (TPs) and the major capsid shell protein (CSPs) have been identified through 3D structural comparisons of the intact CPV capsids with the spikeless CPV capsids, which were generated by chemical treatments. The differential effects of these chemical treatment experiments also indicated that CPV has a significantly stronger structural integrity than other dsRNA viruses, such as the orthoreovirus subcores, which are normally enclosed within outer protein shells. ^ Finally, we have reconstructed the intact CPV to an unprecendented 8 Å resolution from several thousand of 400kV cryoEM images. The 8 Å structure reveals interactions among the 120 molecules of each of the capsid shell protein (CSP), the large protrusion protein (LPP), and 60 molecules of the turret protein (TP). A total of 1980 α-helices and 720 β-sheets have been identified in these capsid proteins. The CSP structure is largely conserved, with the majority of the secondary structures homologous to those observed in the x-ray structures of corresponding proteins of other reoviruses, such as orthoreovirus and bluetongue virus. The three domains of TP are well positioned to play multifunctional roles during viral transcription. The completely non-equivalent interactions between LPP and CSP and those between the anchoring domain of TP and CSP account for the unparalleled stability of this structurally simplest member of the Reoviridae. ^