2 resultados para predictability

em DigitalCommons@The Texas Medical Center


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Parkinson disease (PD) is a movement disorder affecting over one million Americans, and 1% of our population over 60 years of age. Currently, PD has an unknown cause, no predictive biomarker, and no cure, yet there are effective treatments (medicine and surgery) to chronically manage the motor symptoms. But, PD patients also develop cognitive symptoms (e.g., distractibility, executive dysfunction) that remain untreated or may decline as a result of treating the motor symptoms. To address this important issue, I measured covert orienting of attention and overt eye movements in PD patients to assess the patients' ability to automatically detect stimuli in their visual field, to predict and attend to where the stimuli would appear, and to volitionally look somewhere else. ^ PD patients completed the cognitive tasks under multiple treatment conditions, and their performance was compared to healthy adults. PD patients first completed the tasks after they had withdrawn from medication. Their unmedicated performance revealed exaggerated automatic orienting, poor predictability, and weak volitional orienting. PD patients then repeated the tasks while medication was giving its peak benefit. The medication returned automatic covert orienting toward normal but did not improve volitional covert orienting. Several PD patients completed the tasks a third time after receiving surgery (specifically, implantation of stimulating electrodes in a subcortical brain region to alleviate motor symptoms). The stimulation (without medication) returned automatic orienting toward normal, did not change predictability, and further impaired volitional orienting. Taken together, treatments prescribed to alleviate the motor symptoms (a patient's primary concern) only improve some cognitive functions. Future studies may establish criteria to predict which patients are more likely to have cognitive benefit from medication over surgery, or vice versa. ^ I have also hypothesized an anatomical model relating orienting circuitry to abnormal PD circuitry and the therapeutic targets. My results suggest medication is more effective restoring the orienting circuitry than stimulation. Further, automatic and volitional orienting abilities seem to be modulated independently, which differs from an earlier model proposing a dependent, inverse relationship. My results are further discussed in terms of response inhibition, response selection, and the location of the selection. ^

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The National Health Planning and Resources Development Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-641) requires that health systems agencies (HSAs) plan for their health service areas by the use of existing data to the maximum extent practicable. Health planning is based on the identificaton of health needs; however, HSAs are, at present, identifying health needs in their service areas in some approximate terms. This lack of specificity has greatly reduced the effectiveness of health planning. The intent of this study is, therefore, to explore the feasibility of predicting community levels of hospitalized morbidity by diagnosis by the use of existing data so as to allow health planners to plan for the services associated with specific diagnoses.^ The specific objectives of this study are (a) to obtain by means of multiple regression analysis a prediction equation for hospital admission by diagnosis, i.e., select the variables that are related to demand for hospital admissions; (b) to examine how pertinent the variables selected are; and (c) to see if each equation obtained predicts well for health service areas.^ The existing data on hospital admissions by diagnosis are those collected from the National Hospital Discharge Surveys, and are available in a form aggregated to the nine census divisions. When the equations established with such data are applied to local health service areas for prediction, the application is subject to the criticism of the theory of ecological fallacy. Since HSAs have to rely on the availability of existing data, it is imperative to examine whether or not the theory of ecological fallacy holds true in this case.^ The results of the study show that the equations established are highly significant and the independent variables in the equations explain the variation in the demand for hospital admission well. The predictability of these equations is good when they are applied to areas at the same ecological level but become poor, predominantly due to ecological fallacy, when they are applied to health service areas.^ It is concluded that HSAs can not predict hospital admissions by diagnosis without primary data collection as discouraged by Public Law 93-641. ^