Logistic regression with Markov chains as covariates

The tobacco-specific nitrosamine 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) is an obvious carcinogen for lung cancer. Since CBMN (Cytokinesis-blocked micronucleus) has been found to be extremely sensitive to NNK-induced genetic damage, it is a potential important factor to predict the lung cancer risk. However, the association between lung cancer and NNK-induced genetic damage measured by CBMN assay has not been rigorously examined. ^ This research develops a methodology to model the chromosomal changes under NNK-induced genetic damage in a logistic regression framework in order to predict the occurrence of lung cancer. Since these chromosomal changes were usually not observed very long due to laboratory cost and time, a resampling technique was applied to generate the Markov chain of the normal and the damaged cell for each individual. A joint likelihood between the resampled Markov chains and the logistic regression model including transition probabilities of this chain as covariates was established. The Maximum likelihood estimation was applied to carry on the statistical test for comparison. The ability of this approach to increase discriminating power to predict lung cancer was compared to a baseline "non-genetic" model. ^ Our method offered an option to understand the association between the dynamic cell information and lung cancer. Our study indicated the extent of DNA damage/non-damage using the CBMN assay provides critical information that impacts public health studies of lung cancer risk. This novel statistical method could simultaneously estimate the process of DNA damage/non-damage and its relationship with lung cancer for each individual.^

A hybrid method in combining treatment effects from matched and unmatched studies

In the biomedical studies, the general data structures have been the matched (paired) and unmatched designs. Recently, many researchers are interested in Meta-Analysis to obtain a better understanding from several clinical data of a medical treatment. The hybrid design, which is combined two data structures, may create the fundamental question for statistical methods and the challenges for statistical inferences. The applied methods are depending on the underlying distribution. If the outcomes are normally distributed, we would use the classic paired and two independent sample T-tests on the matched and unmatched cases. If not, we can apply Wilcoxon signed rank and rank sum test on each case. ^ To assess an overall treatment effect on a hybrid design, we can apply the inverse variance weight method used in Meta-Analysis. On the nonparametric case, we can use a test statistic which is combined on two Wilcoxon test statistics. However, these two test statistics are not in same scale. We propose the Hybrid Test Statistic based on the Hodges-Lehmann estimates of the treatment effects, which are medians in the same scale.^ To compare the proposed method, we use the classic meta-analysis T-test statistic on the combined the estimates of the treatment effects from two T-test statistics. Theoretically, the efficiency of two unbiased estimators of a parameter is the ratio of their variances. With the concept of Asymptotic Relative Efficiency (ARE) developed by Pitman, we show ARE of the hybrid test statistic relative to classic meta-analysis T-test statistic using the Hodges-Lemann estimators associated with two test statistics.^ From several simulation studies, we calculate the empirical type I error rate and power of the test statistics. The proposed statistic would provide effective tool to evaluate and understand the treatment effect in various public health studies as well as clinical trials.^

Teaching safety at a summer camp: Evaluation of a children's fire safety curriculum in an urban community setting

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Danger Rangers Fire Safety Curriculum in increasing the fire safety knowledge of low-income, minority children in pre-kindergarten to third grade in Austin, TX during a summer day camp in 2007.^ Methods: Data was collected from child participants via teacher and researcher administered tests at pretest, posttest (immediately after the completion of the fire safety module), and at a 3 week follow-up to asses retention. In addition, a self-administered questionnaire was collected from parents pre- and post-intervention to assess home-related fire/burn risk factors. Paired t-tests were conducted using STATA 12.0 to evaluate pretest, posttest, and retention test mean scores as well as mean fire safety rules listed by grade group. McNemar's test was used to determine if there was a difference in fire-related risk factors as reported by the parents of the participants before and after the intervention. Only those who had paired data for the tests/surveys being compared were included in the analysis.^ Results: The first/second grade group and the third grade group scored significantly higher on fire safety knowledge on the posttest compared to the pretest (p<0.0001 for both groups). However, there was no significant change in knowledge scores for the pre-kindergarten to kindergarten group (p=0.14). Among the first/second grade group, knowledge levels did not significantly decline between the posttest and retention test (p=0.25). However, the third grade group had significantly lower fire safety knowledge scores on the retention test compared to the posttest (p<0.001). A similar increase was seen in the amount of fire safety rules listed after the intervention (p<0.0001 between pre and posttest for both the first/second grade and third grade groups), with no decline from the posttest to the retention test (p=0.50) for the first/second grade group, but a significant decline in the third grade group (p=0.001). McNemar's chi-square test showed a significant increase in the percentage of participants' parents reporting smoke detector testing on a regular basis and having a fire escape plan for their family after the intervention (p=0.01 and p<0.0001, respectively). However, there was no significant change in the frequency of reports of the child playing in the kitchen while the parent cooks or the house/apartment having a working smoke detector.^ Conclusion: We found that general fire safety knowledge improved and the number of specific fire safety rules increased among the first to third grade children who participated in the Danger Rangers fire safety program. However, it did not significantly increase general fire safety knowledge among the pre-k/k group. This study also showed that a program targeted towards children has the potential to influence familial risk factors by proxy. The Danger Rangers Fire Safety Curriculum should be further evaluated by conducting a randomized controlled trial, using valid measures that assess fire safety attitudes, beliefs, behaviors, as well as fire/burn related outcomes.^