Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.

Maternal exposure to hazardous air pollutants and oral clefts among offspring: Texas, 1999-2008

Birth defects are a leading cause of infant mortality in the United States. About one in 33 births in the United States is diagnosed with birth defects. Common birth defects include neural tube defects, Down syndrome and oral clefts. The present study focused on oral clefts. ^ Oral clefts refer to the malformation of lip, mouth or both. Birth prevalence of oral clefts in Texas is about 11 per 10,000 births. Etiologically, oral clefts have been classified into two groups, cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL±P) and isolated cleft palate (CP). In spite of their high prevalence and clinical significance, the etiology of oral clefts in humans has not been well understood. Though a number of risk factors have been identified in epidemiological studies, most of them do not explain the majority of the cases. The need to identify novel risk factors associated with oral clefts provided the motivation for this study. The present study focused on maternal exposure to several hazardous air pollutants. A common subgroup of hazardous air pollutants is the volatile organic compounds found in petroleum derivatives. Four important hydrocarbons in this group are benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene and xylenes (BTEX). ^ The specific aim of this study was to evaluate the association between maternal exposure to environmental levels of BTEX and oral clefts among offspring in Texas for the period 1999-2008. ^ A case-control study design was used to assess if maternal exposure to BTEX increased the risk of oral clefts. The Texas Birth Defects Registry provided data on cases of non-syndromic oral clefts delivered in Texas during the period 1999-2008. Census tract level maternal exposure to BTEX concentrations were obtained from the Hazardous Air Pollutant Exposure Model (HAPEM) developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Unconditional logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between maternal exposure to BTEX levels and risk of oral clefts in offspring. ^ In the selected population, mothers who had high estimated exposure to any of the BTEX compounds were not more likely to deliver an offspring with oral clefts. Future research efforts will focus on additional birth defects and thorough assessment of additional potential confounders.^