Analysis of recurrent failure times: A time-dependent Yule process approach

Analysis of recurrent events has been widely discussed in medical, health services, insurance, and engineering areas in recent years. This research proposes to use a nonhomogeneous Yule process with the proportional intensity assumption to model the hazard function on recurrent events data and the associated risk factors. This method assumes that repeated events occur for each individual, with given covariates, according to a nonhomogeneous Yule process with intensity function λx(t) = λ 0(t) · exp( x′β). One of the advantages of using a non-homogeneous Yule process for recurrent events is that it assumes that the recurrent rate is proportional to the number of events that occur up to time t. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to provide estimates of the parameters in the model, and a generalized scoring iterative procedure is applied in numerical computation. ^ Model comparisons between the proposed method and other existing recurrent models are addressed by simulation. One example concerning recurrent myocardial infarction events compared between two distinct populations, Mexican-American and Non-Hispanic Whites in the Corpus Christi Heart Project is examined. ^

Reduction of setup uncertainties and tumor motion in the radiation therapy of lung tumors

Because the goal of radiation therapy is to deliver a lethal dose to the tumor, accurate information on the location of the tumor needs to be known. Margins are placed around the tumor to account for variations in the daily position of the tumor. If tumor motion and patient setup uncertainties can be reduced, margins that account for such uncertainties in tumor location in can be reduced allowing dose escalation, which in turn could potentially improve survival rates. ^ In the first part of this study, we monitor the location of fiducials implanted in the periphery of lung tumors to determine the extent of non-gated and gated fiducial motion, and to quantify patient setup uncertainties. In the second part we determine where the tumor is when different methods of image-guided patient setup and respiratory gating are employed. In the final part we develop, validate, and implement a technique in which patient setup uncertainties are reduced by aligning patients based upon fiducial locations in projection images. ^ Results from the first part indicate that respiratory gating reduces fiducial motion relative to motion during normal respiration and setup uncertainties when the patients were aligned each day using externally placed skin marks are large. The results from the second part indicate that current margins that account for setup uncertainty and tumor motion result in less than 2% of the tumor outside of the planning target volume (PTV) when the patient is aligned using skin marks. In addition, we found that if respiratory gating is going to be used, it is most effective if used in conjunction with image-guided patient setup. From the third part, we successfully developed, validated, and implemented on a patient a technique for aligning a moving target prior to treatment to reduce the uncertainties in tumor location. ^ In conclusion, setup uncertainties and tumor motion are a significant problem when treating tumors located within the thoracic region. Image-guided patient setup in conjunction with treatment delivery using respiratory gating reduces these uncertainties in tumor locations. In doing so, margins around the tumor used to generate the PTV can be reduced, which may allow for dose escalation to the tumor. ^

Response to chemotherapy, recurrence and survival in advanced-stage ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA mutations, compared to those without

Objectives. Previous studies have shown a survival advantage in ovarian cancer patients with Ashkenazi-Jewish (AJ) BRCA founder mutations, compared to sporadic ovarian cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to determine if this association exists in ovarian cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA mutations. In addition, we sought to account for possible "survival bias" by minimizing any lead time that may exist between diagnosis and genetic testing. ^ Methods. Patients with stage III/IV ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer and a non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA1 or 2 mutation, seen for genetic testing January 1996-July 2007, were identified from genetics and institutional databases. Medical records were reviewed for clinical factors, including response to initial chemotherapy. Patients with sporadic (non-hereditary) ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer, without family history of breast or ovarian cancer, were compared to similar cases, matched by age, stage, year of diagnosis, and vital status at time interval to BRCA testing. When possible, 2 sporadic patients were matched to each BRCA patient. An additional group of unmatched, sporadic ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients was included for a separate analysis. Progression-free (PFS) & overall survival (OS) were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were calculated for variables of interest. Matched pairs were treated as clusters. Stratified log rank test was used to calculate survival data for matched pairs using paired event times. Fisher's exact test, chi-square, and univariate logistic regression were also used for analysis. ^ Results. Forty five advanced-stage ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish (non-AJ) BRCA mutations, 86 sporadic-matched and 414 sporadic-unmatched patients were analyzed. Compared to the sporadic-matched and sporadic-unmatched ovarian cancer patients, non-AJ BRCA mutation carriers had longer PFS (17.9 & 13.8 mos. vs. 32.0 mos., HR 1.76 [95% CI 1.13–2.75] & 2.61 [95% CI 1.70–4.00]). In relation to the sporadic- unmatched patients, non-AJ BRCA patients had greater odds of complete response to initial chemotherapy (OR 2.25 [95% CI 1.17–5.41]) and improved OS (37.6 mos. vs. 101.4 mos., HR 2.64 [95% CI 1.49–4.67]). ^ Conclusions. This study demonstrates a significant survival advantage in advanced-stage ovarian cancer patients with non-AJ BRCA mutations, confirming the previous studies in the Jewish population. Our efforts to account for "survival bias," by matching, will continue with collaborative studies. ^

A cross-sectional study of disparities in suicide ideation between Hispanic and non-Hispanic white female adolescents

Suicide is recognized as a major public health and clinical problem in the United States. One fifth of adolescents in the United States seriously consider suicide each year, and about 8% of high school students attempt suicide at least once. Hispanic ethnicity constitutes a risk factor for suicidal ideation and suicide attempts, with Hispanic females at highest risk. Nevertheless, published studies on suicidal behavior in Hispanic female adolescents are extremely limited and focus on suicidal ideation in school samples. Given the severity of the problem and the paucity of information on this topic, more research on ethnic differences in suicidal ideation in community samples of high-risk children is urgently needed. This cross-sectional study delineated differences in suicide ideation between Hispanic female adolescents and non-Hispanic white female adolescents attending a mental health clinic and examined the association of ethnicity with suicide ideation independent of other known risk factors. Data were accrued between June 2004 and December 2008 in a Harris County Mental Health and Mental Retardation Association (MHMRA) clinic. Data were limited to adolescents who were Harris County Residents between the ages of 10 to 17 years when they were admitted to the clinic. The objective of this study was to determine whether differences in socio-demographic and clinical variables play a significant role in ethnic disparities in suicide ideation. A series of logistic regressions were performed to estimate the association between ethnicity and suicide ideation after controlling for potentially confounding factors. ^ Results showed an interaction between Hispanic ethnicity and having a history of treatment: Hispanic girls having history of treatment had lower odds of having suicide ideation than Hispanic girls without such a history. After adjusting for treatment history, family problems, substance use, juvenile justice involvement, current treatment, and age, Hispanic girls had 1.86 times the odds of having suicide ideation than non Hispanic girls (OR=1.86, 95% CI=0.88-1.46). Although additional studies on community samples of high risk adolescents are needed to verify these findings, our study highlights the fact that Hispanic girls are at significantly higher risk and need to be targeted for prevention and treatment efforts. ^

The Emergency Department: Rising wait times, costs, and possible remedies

Emergency Departments (EDs) and Emergency Rooms (ERs) are designed to manage trauma, respond to disasters, and serve as the initial care for those with serious illnesses. However, because of many factors, the ED has become the doorway to the hospital and a “catch-all net” for patients including those with non-urgent needs. This increase in the population in the ED has lead to an increase in wait times for patients. It has been well documented that there has been a constant and consistent rise in the number of patients that frequent the ED (National Center for Health Statistics, 2002); the wait time for patients in the ED has increased (Pitts, Niska, Xu, & Burt, 2008); and the cost of the treatment in the ER has risen (Everett Clinic, 2008). Because the ED was designed to treat patients who need quick diagnoses and may be in potential life-threatening circumstances, management of time can be the ultimate enemy. If a system was implemented to decrease wait times in the ED, decrease the use of ED resources, and decrease costs endured by patients seeking care, better outcomes for patients and patient satisfaction could be achieved. The goal of this research was to explore potential changes and/or alternatives to relieve the burden endured by the ED. In order to explore these options, data was collected by conducting one-on-one interviews with seven physicians closely tied to a Level 1 ED (Emergency Room physicians, Trauma Surgeons and Primary Care physicians). A qualitative analysis was performed on the responses of one-on-one interviews with the aforementioned physicians. The interviews were standardized, open-ended questions that probe what makes an effective ED, possible solutions to improving patient care in the ED, potential remedies for the mounting problems that plague the ED, and the feasibility of bringing Primary Care Physicians to the ED to decrease the wait times experienced by the patient. From the responses, it is clear that there needs to be more research in this area, several areas need to be addressed, and a variety of solutions could be implemented. The most viable option seems to be making the ED its own entity (similar to the clinic or hospital) that includes urgent clinics as a part of the system, in which triage and better staffing would be the most integral part of its success.^

Nosocomial infections and their relationship to non-traditional risk factors in a medical intensive care unit

Background. Nosocomial infections are a source of concern for many hospitals in the United States and worldwide. These infections are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and hospital costs. Nosocomial infections occur in ICUs at a rate which is five times greater than those in general wards. Understanding the reasons for the higher rates can ultimately help reduce these infections. The literature has been weak in documenting a direct relationship between nosocomial infections and non-traditional risk factors, such as unit staffing or patient acuity.^ Objective. To examine the relationship, if any, between nosocomial infections and non-traditional risk factors. The potential non-traditional risk factors we studied were the patient acuity (which comprised of the mortality and illness rating of the patient), patient days for patients hospitalized in the ICU, and the patient to nurse ratio.^ Method. We conducted a secondary data analysis on patients hospitalized in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) of the Memorial Hermann- Texas Medical Center in Houston during the months of March 2008- May 2009. The average monthly values for the patient acuity (mortality and illness Diagnostic Related Group (DRG) scores), patient days for patients hospitalized in the ICU and average patient to nurse ratio were calculated during this time period. Active surveillance of Bloodstream Infections (BSIs), Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs) and Ventilator Associated Pneumonias (VAPs) was performed by Infection Control practitioners, who visited the MICU and performed a personal infection record for each patient. Spearman's rank correlation was performed to determine the relationship between these nosocomial infections and the non-traditional risk factors.^ Results. We found weak negative correlations between BSIs and two measures (illness and mortality DRG). We also found a weak negative correlation between UTI and unit staffing (patient to nurse ratio). The strongest positive correlation was found between illness DRG and mortality DRG, validating our methodology.^ Conclusion. From this analysis, we were able to infer that non-traditional risk factors do not appear to play a significant role in transmission of infection in the units we evaluated.^

Macular edema in Hispanics with non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus in Starr County, Texas: Prevalence, incidence and risk factors

This project is based on secondary analyses of data collected in Starr County, Texas from 1981 till 1991 to determine the prevalence, incidence and risk factors for macular edema in Hispanics with non-insulin-dependent diabetes in Starr County, Texas. Two studies were conducted. The first study examined the prevalence of macular edema in this population. Of the 310 diabetics that were included in the study 22 had macular edema. Of these 22 individuals 9 had clinically significant macular edema. Fasting blood glucose was found to be significantly associated with macular edema. For each 10 mg/dl increase in fasting blood glucose there was a 1.07 probability of an increase in the risk of having macular edema. Individuals with fasting blood glucose $\ge$200 mg/dl were found to be more than three times at risk of having macular edema compared to those with fasting blood glucose $<$200 mg/dl.^ In the second study the incidence and the risk factors that could cause macular edema in this Hispanic population were examined. 240 Hispanics with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and without macular edema were followed for 1223 person-years. During the follow-up period 27 individuals developed macular edema (2.21/100 person-years). High fasting blood glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin were found to be strong and independent risk factors for macular edema. Participants taking insulin were 3.9 times more at risk of developing macular edema compared to those not taking insulin. Systolic blood pressure was significantly related to macular edema, where each 10 mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure was associated with a 1.3 increase in the risk of macular edema.^ In summary, this study suggests that hyperglycemia is the main underlying factor for retinal pathological changes in this diabetic population, and that macular edema probably is not the result of sudden change in the blood glucose level. It also determined that changes in blood pressure, particularly systolic blood pressure, could trigger the development of macular edema.^ Based on the prevalence reported in this study, it is estimated that 35,500 Hispanic diabetics in the US have macular edema. This imposes a major public health challenge particularly in areas with high concentration of Mexican Americans. It also highlights the importance of public health measures directed to Mexican Americans such as health education, improved access to medical care, and periodic and careful ophthalmologic examination by ophthalmologists knowledgeable and experienced in the management of diabetic macular edema. ^

Regulation of apoptosis during the pathogenesis of non -melanoma skin cancer

Previous studies from our lab have shown distinctive patterns of expression of bcl-2 gene family members in human nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC). To further evaluate the significance of these observations and to study the effects of cell death deregulation during skin carcinogenesis, we generated a transgenic mouse model (HK1.bcl-2) using the human keratin 1 promoter to target the expression of a human bcl-2 minigene to the epidermis. Transgenic protein expression was confirmed in all the layers of the epidermis except the stratum corneum using immunohistochemistry. Multifocal epidermal hyperplasia, without associated hyperkeratosis, was observed in newborn HK1.bcl-2 mice. Immunofluorescence staining using monoclonal antibodies specific for a variety of differentiation markers revealed aberrant expression of keratin 6 (K6) in the transgenic epidermis. Epidermal proliferative indexes, assessed by anti-BrdUrd immunofluorescence staining, were similar in control and transgenic newborn mice, but suprabasal proliferating cells were seen within the hyperplastic areas of the transgenic mouse skin. Spontaneous apoptotic indices of the epidermis were similar in both control and HK1.bcl-2 transgenic newborn mice, however, after UV-B irradiation, the number of "sunburn cells" was significantly higher in the control compared to the HK1.bcl-2 transgenic animals.^ Adult HK1.bcl-2 and control littermate mice were used in UV-B and chemical carcinogenesis protocols including DMBA + TPA. UV-B irradiated control and HK1.bcl-2 mice had comparable incidence of tumors than the controls, but the mean latency period was significantly shorter in the HK1.bcl-2 transgenic. Both control and transgenic animals included in chemical carcinogenesis protocols required application of both the initiating (DMBA) and promoting (TPA) agents to develop tumors. The frequency, number, and latency of tumor formation was similar in both groups of animals, however, HK1.bcl-2 mice exhibited a rate of conversion from benign papilloma to carcinoma 2.5 times greater than controls.^ Similar carcinogenesis experiments were performed using newborn mice. HK1.bcl-2 mice treated with UV-B plus TPA have a three fold greater incidence of tumor formation compared to controls littermates. HK1.bcl-2 transgenic animals also exhibited a shorter latency for papilloma formation when treated with DMBA plus TPA.^ HK1.bcl-2/v-Ha-ras double transgenic mice shared phenotypic features of both HK1.v-Ha-ras and HK1.bcl-2 transgenic mice, and exhibited focal areas of augmented hyperplasia. These double transgenic mice were susceptible to tumor formation by treatment with TPA alone.^ Cultures of primary keratinocytes were established from control, HK1.bcl-2, HK1.Ha-ras, and HK1.bcl-2/v-Ha-ras newborn mice. Cell viability was determined after exposure of the cells to UV-B irradiation, DMBA, TPA, or TGF-$\beta$1. Internucleosomal DNA fragmentation ("ladders") and morphological cellular changes compatible with apoptotic cell death were observed after the application of all these agents. HK1.bcl-2 keratinocytes were resistant to cell death induction by all of these agents except TGF-$\beta$1. HK1.Ha-ras cells had a higher spontaneous rate of cell death which could be compensated by co-expression of bcl-2.^ These findings suggest that bcl-2 dependent cell death suppression may be an important component of multistep skin carcinogenesis. ^