MEDICAL CARE UTILIZATION IN TIME AMONG ELDERLY MEDICARE ENROLLEES IN AN HMO

Investigation into the medical care utilization of elderly Medicare enrollees in an HMO (Kaiser - Portland, Oregon): The specific research topics are: (1) The utilization of medical care by selected determinants such as: place of service, type of service, type of appointment, physician status, physician specialty and number of associated morbidities. (2) The attended prevalence of 3 chronic diseases: hypertension, diabetes and arthritis in addition to pneumonias as an example of acute diseases. The selection of these examples was based on their importance in morbidity/or mortality results among the elderly. The share of these diseases in outpatient and inpatient contacts was examined as an example of the relation between morbidity and medical care utilization. (3) The tendency of individual utilization patterns to persist in subsequent time periods. The concept of contagion or proneness was studied in a period of 2 years. Fitting the negative binomial and the Poisson distributions was applied to the utilization in the 2nd year conditional on that in the 1st year as regards outpatient and inpatient contacts.^ The present research is based on a longitudinal study of 20% random sample of elderly Medicare enrollees. The sample size is 1683 individuals during the period from August 1980-December 1982.^ The results of the research were: (1) The distribution of contacts by selected determinants did not reveal a consistent pattern between sexes and age groups. (2) The attended prevalence of hypertension and arthritis showed excess prevalence among females. For diabetes and pneumonias no female excess was noticed. Consistent increased prevalence with increasing age was not detected.^ There were important findings pertaining to the relatively big share of the combined 3 chronic diseases in utilization. They accounted for 20% of male outpatient contacts vs. 25% of female outpatients. For inpatient contacts, they consumed 20% in case of males vs. 24% in case of females. (3) Finding that the negative binomial distribution fit the utilization experience supported the research hypothesis concerning the concept of contagion in utilization. This important finding can be helpful in estimating liability functions needed for forecasting future utilization according to previous experience. Such information has its relevance to organization, administration and planning for medical care in general. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

Disparities in medical expenditure and utilization among hypertensive men and women in the U.S.: Cross-section and lifetime analysis

Objectives. To investigate procedural gender equity by assessing predisposing, enabling and need predictors of gender differences in annual medical expenditures and utilization among hypertensive individuals in the U.S. Also, to estimate and compare lifetime medical expenditures among hypertensive men and women in the U.S. ^ Data source. 2001-2004 the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS);1986-2000 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and National Health Interview Survey linked to mortality in the National Death Index through 2002 (2002 NHIS-NDI). ^ Study design. We estimated total medical expenditure using four equations regression model, specific medical expenditures using two equations regression model and utilization using negative binomial regression model. Procedural equity was assessed by applying the Aday et al. theoretical framework. Expenditures were estimated in 2004 dollars. We estimated hypertension-attributable medical expenditure and utilization among men and women. ^ To estimate lifetime expenditures from ages 20 to 85+, we estimated medical expenditures with cross-sectional data and survival with prospective data. The four equations regression model were used to estimate average annual medical expenditures defined as sum of inpatient stay, emergency room visits, outpatient visits, office based visits, and prescription drugs expenditures. Life tables were used to estimate the distribution of life time medical expenditures for hypertensive men and women at different age and factors such as disease incidence, medical technology and health care cost were assumed to be fixed. Both total and hypertension attributable expenditures among men and women were estimated. ^ Data collection. We used the 2001-2004 MEPS household component and medical condition files; the NHIS person and condition files from 1986-1996 and 1997-2000 sample adult files were used; and the 1986-2000 NHIS that were linked to mortality in the 2002 NHIS-NDI. ^ Principal findings. Hypertensive men had significantly less utilization for most measures after controlling predisposing, enabling and need factors than hypertensive women. Similarly, hypertensive men had less prescription drug (-9.3%), office based (-7.2%) and total medical (-4.5%) expenditures than hypertensive women. However, men had more hypertension-attributable medical expenditures and utilization than women. ^ Expected total lifetime expenditure for average life table individuals at age 20, was $188,300 for hypertensive men and $254,910 for hypertensive women. But the lifetime expenditure that could be attributed to hypertension was $88,033 for men and $40,960 for women. ^ Conclusion. Hypertensive women had more utilization and expenditure for most measures than hypertensive men, possibly indicating procedural inequity. However, relatively higher hypertension-attributable health care of men shows more utilization of resources to treat hypertension related diseases among men than women. Similar results were reported in lifetime analyses.^ Key words: gender, medical expenditures, utilization, hypertension-attributable, lifetime expenditure ^

Evaluating statistical methods used to estimate the number of postsynaptic receptors.

Calcium levels in spines play a significant role in determining the sign and magnitude of synaptic plasticity. The magnitude of calcium influx into spines is highly dependent on influx through N-methyl D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, and therefore depends on the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors in each spine. We have calculated previously how the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors determines the mean and variance of calcium transients in the postsynaptic density, and how this alters the shape of plasticity curves. However, the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors in the postsynaptic density is not well known. Anatomical methods for estimating the number of NMDA receptors produce estimates that are very different than those produced by physiological techniques. The physiological techniques are based on the statistics of synaptic transmission and it is difficult to experimentally estimate their precision. In this paper we use stochastic simulations in order to test the validity of a physiological estimation technique based on failure analysis. We find that the method is likely to underestimate the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors, explain the source of the error, and re-derive a more precise estimation technique. We also show that the original failure analysis as well as our improved formulas are not robust to small estimation errors in key parameters.

High-risk drug use and sexual behaviors among out-of-treatment drug users: An aging and life course perspective

High-risk injection drug use and the sexual behaviors that accompany it have large social and financial costs. Tailored treatments have been shown to successfully reduce high-risk behaviors. However, little is known about how age and age at first drug use are related to high-risk injection or sex behaviors. The current study draws on life course theory and hypothesizes that age will have a strong relationship with high-risk behaviors of out-of-treatment drug users. Data from the NIDA Cooperative Agreement was used to analyze the relationship between (1) age, and (2) age at first drug use with seven high-risk injection and sexual behavior variables. Negative binomial regression models revealed that high-risk sexual behavior decreases between 15.8 and 20.9% with each decade of age, while high-risk injection behavior increases between 32 and 67% with each decade of age after the addition of demographic controls. Both high-risk injection and high-risk sex behaviors are significantly reduced with a delayed age at first drug use. Previous research promotes interventions to reduce the high-risk sexual behaviors of older drug users. The current study suggests a refocusing of public health efforts on the high-risk injection habits of older drug users.^

An empirical model to estimate the demand for primary care in urban settings

Objective. To measure the demand for primary care and its associated factors by building and estimating a demand model of primary care in urban settings.^ Data source. Secondary data from 2005 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS 2005), a population-based random-digit dial telephone survey, conducted by the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research in collaboration with the California Department of Health Services, and the Public Health Institute between July 2005 and April 2006.^ Study design. A literature review was done to specify the demand model by identifying relevant predictors and indicators. CHIS 2005 data was utilized for demand estimation.^ Analytical methods. The probit regression was used to estimate the use/non-use equation and the negative binomial regression was applied to the utilization equation with the non-negative integer dependent variable.^ Results. The model included two equations in which the use/non-use equation explained the probability of making a doctor visit in the past twelve months, and the utilization equation estimated the demand for primary conditional on at least one visit. Among independent variables, wage rate and income did not affect the primary care demand whereas age had a negative effect on demand. People with college and graduate educational level were associated with 1.03 (p < 0.05) and 1.58 (p < 0.01) more visits, respectively, compared to those with no formal education. Insurance was significantly and positively related to the demand for primary care (p < 0.01). Need for care variables exhibited positive effects on demand (p < 0.01). Existence of chronic disease was associated with 0.63 more visits, disability status was associated with 1.05 more visits, and people with poor health status had 4.24 more visits than those with excellent health status. ^ Conclusions. The average probability of visiting doctors in the past twelve months was 85% and the average number of visits was 3.45. The study emphasized the importance of need variables in explaining healthcare utilization, as well as the impact of insurance, employment and education on demand. The two-equation model of decision-making, and the probit and negative binomial regression methods, was a useful approach to demand estimation for primary care in urban settings.^

Prevalence of gastro esophageal reflux disease following the Montreal Consensus and its association with Helicobacter pylori infection and obesity in a random sample of adults of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, 2004.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease is a common condition affecting 25 to 40% of the population and causes significant morbidity in the U.S., accounting for at least 9 million office visits to physicians with estimated annual costs of $10 billion. Previous research has not clearly established whether infection with Helicobacter pylori, a known cause of peptic ulcer, atrophic gastritis and non cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach, is associated with gastroesophageal reflux disease. This study is a secondary analysis of data collected in a cross-sectional study of a random sample of adult residents of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, that was conducted in 2004 (Prevalence and Determinants of Chronic Atrophic Gastritis Study or CAG study, Dr. Victor M. Cardenas, Principal Investigator). In this study, the presence of gastroesophageal reflux disease was based on responses to the previously validated Spanish Language Dyspepsia Questionnaire. Responses to this questionnaire indicating the presence of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms and disease were compared with the presence of H. pylori infection as measured by culture, histology and rapid urease test, and with findings of upper endoscopy (i.e., hiatus hernia and erosive and atrophic esophagitis). The prevalence ratio was calculated using bivariate, stratified and multivariate negative binomial logistic regression analyses in order to assess the relation between active H. pylori infection and the prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux typical syndrome and disease, while controlling for known risk factors of gastroesophageal reflux disease such as obesity. In a random sample of 174 adults 48 (27.6%) of the study participants had typical reflux syndrome and only 5% (or 9/174) had gastroesophageal reflux disease per se according to the Montreal consensus, which defines reflux syndromes and disease based on whether the symptoms are perceived as troublesome by the subject. There was no association between H. pylori infection and typical reflux syndrome or gastroesophageal reflux disease. However, we found that in this Northern Mexican population, there was a moderate association (Prevalence Ratio=2.5; 95% CI=1.3, 4.7) between obesity (≥30 kg/m2) and typical reflux syndrome. Management and prevention of obesity will significantly curb the growing numbers of persons affected by gastroesophageal reflux symptoms and disease in Northern Mexico. ^

Gender disparities in utilization, unmet need and expenditure for mental health care

Objectives: To compare mental health care utilization regarding the source, types, and intensity of mental health services received, unmet need for services, and out of pocket cost among non-institutionalized psychologically distressed women and men. ^ Method: Cross-sectional data for 19,325 non-institutionalized mentally distressed adult respondents to the “The National Survey on Drug Use and Health” (NSDUH), for the years 2006 -2008, representing over twenty-nine millions U.S. adults was analyzed. To assess the relative odds for women compared to men, logistic regression analysis was used for source of service, for types of barriers, for unmet need and cost; zero inflated negative binomial regression for intensity of utilization; and ordinal logistic regression analysis for quantifying out-of-pocket expenditure. ^ Results: Overall, 43% of mentally distressed adults utilized a form of mental health treatment; representing 12.6 million U.S psychologically distressed adults. Females utilized more mental health care compared to males in the previous 12 months (OR: 1. 70; 95% CI: 1.54, 1.83). Similarly, females were 54% more likely to get help for psychological distress in an outpatient setting and females were associated with an increased probability of using medication for mental distress (OR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.63, 1.98). Women were 1.25 times likelier to visit a mental health center (specialty care) than men. ^ Females were positively associated with unmet needs (OR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.29, 1.75) after taking into account predisposing, enabling, and need (PEN) characteristics. Women with perceived unmet needs were 23% (OR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.59, 0.99) less likely than men to report societal accommodation (stigma) as a barrier to mental health care. At any given cutoff point, women were 1.74 times likelier to be in the higher payment categories for inpatient out of pocket cost when other variables in the model are held constant. Conclusions: Women utilize more specialty mental healthcare, report more unmet need, and pay more inpatient out of pocket costs than men. These gender disparities exist even after controlling for predisposing, enabling, and need variables. Creating policies that not only provide mental health care access but also de-stigmatize mental illness will bring us one step closer to eliminating gender disparities in mental health care.^

Effects of overweight and obesity on economic outcomes among U.S. adults with kidney disease

Background. Kidney disease is a growing public health phenomenon in the U.S. and in the world. Downstream interventions, dialysis and renal transplants covered by Medicare's renal disease entitlement policy in those who are 65 years and over have been expensive treatments that have been not foolproof. The shortage of kidney donors in the U.S. has grown in the last two decades. Therefore study of upstream events in kidney disease development and progression is justified to prevent the rising prevalence of kidney disease. Previous studies have documented the biological route by which obesity can progress and accelerate kidney disease, but health services literature on quantifying the effects of overweight and obesity on economic outcomes in the context of renal disease were lacking. Objectives . The specific aims of this study were (1) to determine the likelihood of overweight and obesity in renal disease and in three specific adult renal disease sub-populations, hypertensive, diabetic and both hypertensive and diabetic (2) to determine the incremental health service use and spending in overweight and obese renal disease populations and (3) to determine who financed the cost of healthcare for renal disease in overweight and obese adult populations less than 65 years of age. Methods. This study was a retrospective cross-sectional study of renal disease cases pooled for years 2002 to 2009 from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. The likelihood of overweight and obesity was estimated using chi-square test. Negative binomial regression and generalized gamma model with log link were used to estimate healthcare utilization and healthcare expenditures for six health event categories. Payments by self/family, public and private insurance were described for overweight and obese kidney disease sub-populations. Results. The likelihood of overweight and obesity was 0.29 and 0.46 among renal disease and obesity was common in hypertensive and diabetic renal disease population. Among obese renal disease population, negative binomial regression estimates of healthcare utilization per person per year as compared to normal weight renal disease persons were significant for office-based provider visits and agency home health visits respectively (p=0.001; p=0.005). Among overweight kidney disease population health service use was significant for inpatient hospital discharges (p=0.027). Over years 2002 to 2009, overweight and obese renal disease sub-populations had 53% and 63% higher inpatient facility and doctor expenditures as compared to normal weight renal disease population and these result were statistically significant (p=0.007; p=0.026). Overweigh renal disease population had significant total expenses per person per year for office-based and outpatient associated care. Overweight and obese renal disease persons paid less from out-of-pocket overall compared to normal weight renal disease population. Medicare and Medicaid had the highest mean annual payments for obese renal disease persons, while mean annual payments per year were highest for private insurance among normal weight renal disease population. Conclusion. Overweight and obesity were common in those with acute and chronic kidney disease and resulted in higher healthcare spending and increased utilization of office-based providers, hospital inpatient department and agency home healthcare. Healthcare for overweight and obese renal disease persons younger than 65 years of age was financed more by private and public insurance and less by out of pocket payments. With the increasing epidemic of obesity in the U.S. and the aging of the baby boomer population, the findings of the present study have implications for public health and for greater dissemination of healthcare resources to prevent, manage and delay the onset of overweight and obesity that can progress and accelerate the course of the kidney disease.^

RNA-SEQUENCING APPLICATIONS: GENE EXPRESSION QUANTIFICATION AND METHYLATOR PHENOTYPE IDENTIFICATION

My dissertation focuses on two aspects of RNA sequencing technology. The first is the methodology for modeling the overdispersion inherent in RNA-seq data for differential expression analysis. This aspect is addressed in three sections. The second aspect is the application of RNA-seq data to identify the CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) by integrating datasets of mRNA expression level and DNA methylation status. Section 1: The cost of DNA sequencing has reduced dramatically in the past decade. Consequently, genomic research increasingly depends on sequencing technology. However it remains elusive how the sequencing capacity influences the accuracy of mRNA expression measurement. We observe that accuracy improves along with the increasing sequencing depth. To model the overdispersion, we use the beta-binomial distribution with a new parameter indicating the dependency between overdispersion and sequencing depth. Our modified beta-binomial model performs better than the binomial or the pure beta-binomial model with a lower false discovery rate. Section 2: Although a number of methods have been proposed in order to accurately analyze differential RNA expression on the gene level, modeling on the base pair level is required. Here, we find that the overdispersion rate decreases as the sequencing depth increases on the base pair level. Also, we propose four models and compare them with each other. As expected, our beta binomial model with a dynamic overdispersion rate is shown to be superior. Section 3: We investigate biases in RNA-seq by exploring the measurement of the external control, spike-in RNA. This study is based on two datasets with spike-in controls obtained from a recent study. We observe an undiscovered bias in the measurement of the spike-in transcripts that arises from the influence of the sample transcripts in RNA-seq. Also, we find that this influence is related to the local sequence of the random hexamer that is used in priming. We suggest a model of the inequality between samples and to correct this type of bias. Section 4: The expression of a gene can be turned off when its promoter is highly methylated. Several studies have reported that a clear threshold effect exists in gene silencing that is mediated by DNA methylation. It is reasonable to assume the thresholds are specific for each gene. It is also intriguing to investigate genes that are largely controlled by DNA methylation. These genes are called “L-shaped” genes. We develop a method to determine the DNA methylation threshold and identify a new CIMP of BRCA. In conclusion, we provide a detailed understanding of the relationship between the overdispersion rate and sequencing depth. And we reveal a new bias in RNA-seq and provide a detailed understanding of the relationship between this new bias and the local sequence. Also we develop a powerful method to dichotomize methylation status and consequently we identify a new CIMP of breast cancer with a distinct classification of molecular characteristics and clinical features.

The assumptions and effects of conservative procedures in low -dose risk assessment for setting safety standards

Conservative procedures in low-dose risk assessment are used to set safety standards for known or suspected carcinogens. However, the assumptions upon which the methods are based and the effects of these methods are not well understood.^ To minimize the number of false-negatives and to reduce the cost of bioassays, animals are given very high doses of potential carcinogens. Results must then be extrapolated to much smaller doses to set safety standards for risks such as one per million. There are a number of competing methods that add a conservative safety factor into these calculations.^ A method of quantifying the conservatism of these methods was described and tested on eight procedures used in setting low-dose safety standards. The results using these procedures were compared by computer simulation and by the use of data from a large scale animal study.^ The method consisted of determining a "true safe dose" (tsd) according to an assumed underlying model. If one assumed that Y = the probability of cancer = P(d), a known mathematical function of the dose, then by setting Y to some predetermined acceptable risk, one can solve for d, the model's "true safe dose".^ Simulations were generated, assuming a binomial distribution, for an artificial bioassay. The eight procedures were then used to determine a "virtual safe dose" (vsd) that estimates the tsd, assuming a risk of one per million. A ratio R = ((tsd-vsd)/vsd) was calculated for each "experiment" (simulation). The mean R of 500 simulations and the probability R $<$ 0 was used to measure the over and under conservatism of each procedure.^ The eight procedures included Weil's method, Hoel's method, the Mantel-Byran method, the improved Mantel-Byran, Gross's method, fitting a one-hit model, Crump's procedure, and applying Rai and Van Ryzin's method to a Weibull model.^ None of the procedures performed uniformly well for all types of dose-response curves. When the data were linear, the one-hit model, Hoel's method, or the Gross-Mantel method worked reasonably well. However, when the data were non-linear, these same methods were overly conservative. Crump's procedure and the Weibull model performed better in these situations. ^

Dynamics of a minimal model of interlocked positive and negative feedback loops of transcriptional regulation by cAMP-response element binding proteins.

cAMP-response element binding (CREB) proteins are involved in transcriptional regulation in a number of cellular processes (e.g., neural plasticity and circadian rhythms). The CREB family contains activators and repressors that may interact through positive and negative feedback loops. These loops can be generated by auto- and cross-regulation of expression of CREB proteins, via CRE elements in or near their genes. Experiments suggest that such feedback loops may operate in several systems (e.g., Aplysia and rat). To understand the functional implications of such feedback loops, which are interlocked via cross-regulation of transcription, a minimal model with a positive and negative loop was developed and investigated using bifurcation analysis. Bifurcation analysis revealed diverse nonlinear dynamics (e.g., bistability and oscillations). The stability of steady states or oscillations could be changed by time delays in the synthesis of the activator (CREB1) or the repressor (CREB2). Investigation of stochastic fluctuations due to small numbers of molecules of CREB1 and CREB2 revealed a bimodal distribution of CREB molecules in the bistability region. The robustness of the stable HIGH and LOW states of CREB expression to stochastic noise differs, and a critical number of molecules was required to sustain the HIGH state for days or longer. Increasing positive feedback or decreasing negative feedback also increased the lifetime of the HIGH state, and persistence of this state may correlate with long-term memory formation. A critical number of molecules was also required to sustain robust oscillations of CREB expression. If a steady state was near a deterministic Hopf bifurcation point, stochastic resonance could induce oscillations. This comparative analysis of deterministic and stochastic dynamics not only provides insights into the possible dynamics of CREB regulatory motifs, but also demonstrates a framework for understanding other regulatory processes with similar network architecture.

Dynamics of a minimal model of interlocked positive and negative feedback loops of transcriptional regulation by cAMP-response element binding proteins.

cAMP-response element binding (CREB) proteins are involved in transcriptional regulation in a number of cellular processes (e.g., neural plasticity and circadian rhythms). The CREB family contains activators and repressors that may interact through positive and negative feedback loops. These loops can be generated by auto- and cross-regulation of expression of CREB proteins, via CRE elements in or near their genes. Experiments suggest that such feedback loops may operate in several systems (e.g., Aplysia and rat). To understand the functional implications of such feedback loops, which are interlocked via cross-regulation of transcription, a minimal model with a positive and negative loop was developed and investigated using bifurcation analysis. Bifurcation analysis revealed diverse nonlinear dynamics (e.g., bistability and oscillations). The stability of steady states or oscillations could be changed by time delays in the synthesis of the activator (CREB1) or the repressor (CREB2). Investigation of stochastic fluctuations due to small numbers of molecules of CREB1 and CREB2 revealed a bimodal distribution of CREB molecules in the bistability region. The robustness of the stable HIGH and LOW states of CREB expression to stochastic noise differs, and a critical number of molecules was required to sustain the HIGH state for days or longer. Increasing positive feedback or decreasing negative feedback also increased the lifetime of the HIGH state, and persistence of this state may correlate with long-term memory formation. A critical number of molecules was also required to sustain robust oscillations of CREB expression. If a steady state was near a deterministic Hopf bifurcation point, stochastic resonance could induce oscillations. This comparative analysis of deterministic and stochastic dynamics not only provides insights into the possible dynamics of CREB regulatory motifs, but also demonstrates a framework for understanding other regulatory processes with similar network architecture.

Survival analysis of circulating tumor cells in triple-negative breast cancer

Background. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% (1.38 million) of the total new cancer cases and 14% (458,400) of the total cancer deaths in 2008. [1] Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive phenotype comprising 10–20% of all breast cancers (BCs). [2-4] TNBCs show absence of estrogen, progesterone and HER2/neu receptors on the tumor cells. Because of the absence of these receptors, TNBCs are not candidates for targeted therapies. Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) are observed in blood of breast cancer patients even at early stages (Stage I & II) of the disease. Immunological and molecular analysis can be used to detect the presence of tumor cells in the blood (Circulating tumor cells; CTCs) of many breast cancer patients. These cells may explain relapses in early stage breast cancer patients even after adequate local control. CTC detection may be useful in identifying patients at risk for disease progression, and therapies targeting CTCs may improve outcome in patients harboring them. Methods . In this study we evaluated 80 patients with TNBC who are enrolled in a larger prospective study conducted at M D Anderson Cancer Center in order to determine whether the presence of circulating tumor cells is a significant prognostic factor in relapse free and overall survival . Patients with metastatic disease at the time of presentation were excluded from the study. CTCs were assessed using CellSearch System™ (Veridex, Raritan, NJ). CTCs were defined as nucleated cells lacking the presence of CD45 but expressing cytokeratins 8, 18 or 19. The distribution of patient and tumor characteristics was analyzed using chi square test and Fisher's exact test. Log rank test and Cox regression analysis was applied to establish the association of circulating tumor cells with relapse free and overall survival. Results. The median age of the study participants was 53years. The median duration of follow-up was 40 months. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of patients were newly diagnosed (without a previous history of breast cancer), and (60%) of patients were chemo naïve (had not received chemotherapy at the time of their blood draw for CTC analysis). Tumor characteristics such as stage (P=0.40), tumor size (P=69), sentinel nodal involvement (P=0.87), axillary lymph node involvement (P=0.13), adjuvant therapy (P=0.83), and high histological grade of tumor (P=0.26) did not predict the presence of CTCs. However, CTCs predicted worse relapse free survival (1 or more CTCs log rank P value = 0.04, at 2 or more CTCs P = 0.02 and at 3 or more CTCs P < 0.0001) and overall survival (at 1 or more CTCs log rank P value = 0.08, at 2 or more CTCs P = 0.01 and at 3 or more CTCs P = 0.0001. Conclusions. The number of circulating tumor cells predicted worse relapse free survival and overall survival in TNBC patients.^