Genes to blood pressure: The effects of variation in genes of the renin-angiotensin system on the hormonal and renal control of blood pressure

Objective. Essential hypertension affects 25% of the US adult population and is a leading contributor to morbidity and mortality. Because BP is a multifactorial phenotype that resists simple genetic analysis, intermediate phenotypes within the complex network of BP regulatory systems may be more accessible to genetic dissection. The Renin-Angiotensin System (RAS) is known to influence intermediate and long-term blood pressure regulation through alterations in vascular tone and renal sodium and fluid resorption. This dissertation examines associations between renin (REN), angiotensinogen (AGT), angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) and angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1) gene variation and interindividual differences in plasma hormone levels, renal hemodynamics, and BP homeostasis.^ Methods. A total of 150 unrelated men and 150 unrelated women, between 20.0 and 49.9 years of age and free of acute or chronic illness except for a history of hypertension (11 men and 7 women, all off medications), were studied after one week on a controlled sodium diet. RAS plasma hormone levels, renal hemodynamics and BP were determined prior to and during angiotensin II (Ang II) infusion. Individuals were genotyped by PCR for a variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) polymorphism in REN, and for the following restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP): AGT M235T, ACE I/D, and AT1 A1166C. Associations between clinical measurements and allelic variation were examined using multiple linear regression statistical models.^ Results. Women homozygous for the AT1 1166C allele demonstrated higher intracellular levels of sodium (p = 0.044). Men homozygous for the AGT T235 allele demonstrated a blunted decrement in renal plasma flow in response to Ang II infusion (p = 0.0002). There were no significant associations between RAS gene variation and interindividual variation in RAS plasma hormone levels or BP.^ Conclusions. Rather than identifying new BP controlling genes or alleles, the study paradigm employed in this thesis (i.e., measured genes, controlled environments and interventions) may provide mechanistic insight into how candidate genes affect BP homeostasis. ^

Origins and evolution of VNTR loci: The apolipoprotein B 3$\sp\prime$ VNTR

I studied the apolipoprotein (apo) B 3$\sp\prime$ variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) and did computer simulations of the stepwise mutation model to address four questions: (1) How did the apo B VNTR originate? (2) What is the mutational mechanism of repeat number change at the apo B VNTR? (3) To what extent are population and molecular level events responsible for the determination of the contemporary apo B allele frequency distribution? (4) Can VNTR allele frequency distributions be explained by a simple and conservative mutation-drift model? I used three general approaches to address these questions: (1) I characterized the apo B VNTR region in non-human primate species; (2) I constructed haplotypes of polymorphic markers flanking the apo B VNTR in a sample of individuals from Lorrain, France and studied the associations between the flanking-marker haplotypes and apo B VNTR size; (3) I did computer simulations of the one-step stepwise mutation model and compared the results to real data in terms of four allele frequency distribution characteristics.^ The results of this work have allowed me to conclude that the apo B VNTR originated after an initial duplication of a sequence which is still present as a single copy sequence in New World monkey species. I conclude that this locus did not originate by the transposition of an array of repeats from somewhere else in the genome. It is unlikely that recombination is the primary mutational mechanism. Furthermore, the clustered nature of these associations implicates a stepwise mutational mechanism. From the high frequencies of certain haplotype-allele size combinations, it is evident that population level events have also been important in the determination of the apo B VNTR allele frequency distribution. Results from computer simulations of the one-step stepwise mutation model have allowed me to conclude that bimodal and multimodal allele frequency distributions are not unexpected at loci evolving via stepwise mutation mechanisms. Short tandem repeat loci fit the stepwise mutation model best, followed by microsatellite loci. I therefore conclude that there are differences in the mutational mechanisms of VNTR loci as classed by repeat unit size. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Population genetics of VNTR loci and their applications in evolutionary studies

Variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) are genetic loci at which short sequence motifs are found repeated different numbers of times among chromosomes. To explore the potential utility of VNTR loci in evolutionary studies, I have conducted a series of studies to address the following questions: (1) What are the population genetic properties of these loci? (2) What are the mutational mechanisms of repeat number change at these loci? (3) Can DNA profiles be used to measure the relatedness between a pair of individuals? (4) Can DNA fingerprint be used to measure the relatedness between populations in evolutionary studies? (5) Can microsatellite and short tandem repeat (STR) loci which mutate stepwisely be used in evolutionary analyses?^ A large number of VNTR loci typed in many populations were studied by means of statistical methods developed recently. The results of this work indicate that there is no significant departure from Hardy-Weinberg expectation (HWE) at VNTR loci in most of the human populations examined, and the departure from HWE in some VNTR loci are not solely caused by the presence of population sub-structure.^ A statistical procedure is developed to investigate the mutational mechanisms of VNTR loci by studying the allele frequency distributions of these loci. Comparisons of frequency distribution data on several hundreds VNTR loci with the predictions of two mutation models demonstrated that there are differences among VNTR loci grouped by repeat unit sizes.^ By extending the ITO method, I derived the distribution of the number of shared bands between individuals with any kinship relationship. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is proposed to estimate the relatedness between individuals from the observed number of shared bands between them.^ It was believed that classical measures of genetic distance are not applicable to analysis of DNA fingerprints which reveal many minisatellite loci simultaneously in the genome, because the information regarding underlying alleles and loci is not available. I proposed a new measure of genetic distance based on band sharing between individuals that is applicable to DNA fingerprint data.^ To address the concern that microsatellite and STR loci may not be useful for evolutionary studies because of the convergent nature of their mutation mechanisms, by a theoretical study as well as by computer simulation, I conclude that the possible bias caused by the convergent mutations can be corrected, and a novel measure of genetic distance that makes the correction is suggested. In summary, I conclude that hypervariable VNTR loci are useful in evolutionary studies of closely related populations or species, especially in the study of human evolution and the history of geographic dispersal of Homo sapiens. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Multiple imputation for missing continuous and dichotomous data: The effects of patterns of missingness and variable correlations on type I error with small samples

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of predictor variable correlations and patterns of missingness with dichotomous and/or continuous data in small samples when missing data is multiply imputed. Missing data of predictor variables is multiply imputed under three different multivariate models: the multivariate normal model for continuous data, the multinomial model for dichotomous data and the general location model for mixed dichotomous and continuous data. Subsequent to the multiple imputation process, Type I error rates of the regression coefficients obtained with logistic regression analysis are estimated under various conditions of correlation structure, sample size, type of data and patterns of missing data. The distributional properties of average mean, variance and correlations among the predictor variables are assessed after the multiple imputation process. ^ For continuous predictor data under the multivariate normal model, Type I error rates are generally within the nominal values with samples of size n = 100. Smaller samples of size n = 50 resulted in more conservative estimates (i.e., lower than the nominal value). Correlation and variance estimates of the original data are retained after multiple imputation with less than 50% missing continuous predictor data. For dichotomous predictor data under the multinomial model, Type I error rates are generally conservative, which in part is due to the sparseness of the data. The correlation structure for the predictor variables is not well retained on multiply-imputed data from small samples with more than 50% missing data with this model. For mixed continuous and dichotomous predictor data, the results are similar to those found under the multivariate normal model for continuous data and under the multinomial model for dichotomous data. With all data types, a fully-observed variable included with variables subject to missingness in the multiple imputation process and subsequent statistical analysis provided liberal (larger than nominal values) Type I error rates under a specific pattern of missing data. It is suggested that future studies focus on the effects of multiple imputation in multivariate settings with more realistic data characteristics and a variety of multivariate analyses, assessing both Type I error and power. ^

Deep gray matter atrophy in multiple sclerosis: a tensor based morphometry.

Tensor based morphometry (TBM) was applied to determine the atrophy of deep gray matter (DGM) structures in 88 relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. For group analysis of atrophy, an unbiased atlas was constructed from 20 normal brains. The MS brain images were co-registered with the unbiased atlas using a symmetric inverse consistent nonlinear registration. These studies demonstrate significant atrophy of thalamus, caudate nucleus, and putamen even at a modest clinical disability, as assessed by the expanded disability status score (EDSS). A significant correlation between atrophy and EDSS was observed for different DGM structures: (thalamus: r=-0.51, p=3.85 x 10(-7); caudate nucleus: r=-0.43, p=2.35 x 10(-5); putamen: r=-0.36, p=6.12 x 10(-6)). Atrophy of these structures also correlated with 1) T2 hyperintense lesion volumes (thalamus: r=-0.56, p=9.96 x 10(-9); caudate nucleus: r=-0.31, p=3.10 x 10(-3); putamen: r=-0.50, p=6.06 x 10(-7)), 2) T1 hypointense lesion volumes (thalamus: r=-0.61, p=2.29 x 10(-10); caudate nucleus: r=-0.35, p=9.51 x 10(-4); putamen: r=-0.43, p=3.51 x 10(-5)), and 3) normalized CSF volume (thalamus: r=-0.66, p=3.55 x 10(-12); caudate nucleus: r=-0.52, p=2.31 x 10(-7), and putamen: r=-0.66, r=2.13 x 10(-12)). More severe atrophy was observed mainly in thalamus at higher EDSS. These studies appear to suggest a link between the white matter damage and DGM atrophy in MS.

Detecting the signature of natural selection with microsatellites

Natural selection is one of the major factors in the evolution of all organisms. Detecting the signature of natural selection has been a central theme in evolutionary genetics. With the availability of microsatellite data, it is of interest to study how natural selection can be detected with microsatellites. ^ The overall aim of this research is to detect signatures of natural selection with data on genetic variation at microsatellite loci. The null hypothesis to be tested is the neutral mutation theory of molecular evolution, which states that different alleles at a locus have equivalent effects on fitness. Currently used tests of this hypothesis based on data on genetic polymorphism in natural populations presume that mutations at the loci follow the infinite allele/site models (IAM, ISM), in the sense that at each site at most only one mutation event is recorded, and each mutation leads to an allele not seen before in the population. Microsatellite loci, which are abundant in the genome, do not obey these mutation models, since the new alleles at such loci can be created either by contraction or expansion of tandem repeat sizes of core motifs. Since the current genome map is mainly composed of microsatellite loci and this class of loci is still most commonly studied in the context of human genome diversity, this research explores how the current test procedures for testing the neutral mutation hypothesis should be modified to take into account a generalized model of forward-backward stepwise mutations. In addition, recent literature also suggested that past demographic history of populations, presence of population substructure, and varying rates of mutations across loci all have confounding effects for detecting signatures of natural selection. ^ The effects of the stepwise mutation model and other confounding factors on detecting signature of natural selection are the main results of the research. ^

A STUDY OF THE ATTITUDES OF ELDERLY CONSUMERS TOWARD DENTAL CARE AND ORAL HEALTH

This paper describes a study of the attitudes of elderly consumers toward dental care and oral health. Four hundred and two respondents ages 60-97 were interviewed with a 62 item questionnaire. Attitudes were measured regarding: quality of care, sufficient utilization of care, priority of oral health, patient-provider interaction, individual control over health, powerful others control of health, and chance as the locus of control over health. Analysis of variance was performed on the sample of males and females separately. Fifty-four hypotheses were tested on each sex. Race and self-concept were excellent predictors of attitude for both sexes and SES (socioeconomic status) and self-reported health were good predictors for females. There was no statistically significant relationship between the frequency with which the elderly utilize dental care and their attitudes toward the quality of care they receive. Foremost reason for non-utilization was that of no felt need. Those selecting this reason were likely to be Anglo females, wearers of dentures, in good health. Those selecting cost as the foremost reason for non-utilization were Black, in fair health, of either sex, missing some teeth, but with no dentures. Overall attitudes toward quality of dental care were positive, despite the fact that this group was exposed to dental care in its infancy. This may suggest that the elderly recognize the importance of technological advances in dentistry. Women with low income and education levels were more likely to have positive attitudes about quality of care than other females. Attitudes about interaction between patient and provider were overall negative. The sample scored high on individual control over health, and scored lower, but nonetheless positively, on feelings that persons other than themselves are most essential to maintaining health. Overall these elderly persons did not agree that they relied on chance in matters of health. Those who did choose this locus were female, with lower SES and health status. Though males scored high on internal control of health, those with lowest scores were Mexican-American or had never been married. Sex and ethnicity were the best predictors of attitude across all measures in the study.^

A systematic review of community-based colorectal cancer screening randomized controlled trials with multi-ethnic groups

Background. The CDC estimates that 40% of adults 50 years of age or older do not receive time-appropriate colorectal cancer screening. Sixty percent of colorectal cancer deaths could be prevented by regular screening of adults 50 years of age and older. Yet, in 2000 only 42.5% of adults age 50 or older in the U.S. had received recommended screening. Disparities by health care, nativity status, socioeconomic status, and race/ethnicity are evident. Disparities in minority, underserved populations prevent us from attaining Goal 2 of Healthy People 2010 to “eliminate health disparities.” This review focuses on community-based screening research among underserved populations that includes multiple ethnic groups for appropriate disparities analysis. There is a gap in the colorectal cancer screening literature describing the effectiveness of community-based randomized controlled trials. ^ Objective. To critically review the literature describing community-based colorectal cancer screening strategies that are randomized controlled trials, and that include multiple racial/ethnic groups. ^ Methods. The review includes a preliminary disparities analysis to assess whether interventions were appropriately targeted in communities to those groups experiencing the greatest health disparities. Review articles are from an original search using Ovid Medline and a cross-matching search in Pubmed, both from January 2001 to June 2009. The Ovid Medline literature review is divided into eight exclusionary stages, seven electronic, and the last stage consisting of final manual review. ^ Results. The final studies (n=15) are categorized into four categories: Patient mailings (n=3), Telephone outreach (n=3), Electronic/multimedia (n=4), and Counseling/community education (n=5). Of 15 studies, 11 (73%) demonstrated that screening rates increased for the intervention group compared to controls, including all studies (100%) from the Patient mailings and Telephone outreach groups, 4 of 5 (80%) Counseling/community education studies, and 1 of 4 (25%) Electronic/multimedia interventions. ^ Conclusions. Patient choice and tailoring education and/or messages to individuals have proven to be two important factors in improving colorectal cancer screening adherence rates. Technological strategies have not been overly successful with underserved populations in community-based trials. Based on limited findings to date, future community-based colorectal cancer screening trials should include diverse populations who are experiencing incidence, survival, mortality and screening disparities. ^

Assessing the patterns of colorectal cancer treatment, adherence to treatment guidelines and survival in Texas

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third leading cancer in both incidence and mortality in Texas. This study investigated the adherence of CRC treatment to standard treatment guidelines and the association between standard treatment and CRC survival in Texas. The author used Texas Cancer Registry (TCR) and Medicare linked data to study the CRC treatment patterns and factors associated with standard treatment in patients who were more than 65 years old and were diagnosed in 2001 through 2007. We also determined whether adherence to standard treatment affect patients' survival. Multiple logistic regression and Cox regression analysis were used to analyze our data. Both regression models are adjusted for demographic characteristics and tumor characteristics. We found that for the 3977 regional colon cancer patients 80 years old or younger, 60.2% of them received chemotherapy, in adherence to the recommended treatment guidelines. People with younger age, female gender, higher education and lower comorbidity score are more likely adherent to this surgery guideline. Patients' adherence to chemotherapy in this cohort have better survival compared to those who are not (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.68-0.84). For the 12709 colon cancer patients treated with surgery, 49.3% have more than 12 lymph nodes removed, in adherence to the treatment guidelines. People with younger age, female gender, higher education, regional stage, lager tumor size and lower comorbidity score are more likely to adherent to this surgery guideline. Patients with more than 12 lymph nodes removed in this cohort have better survival (HR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.82-0.91). For the 1211 regional rectal cancer patients 80 years old or younger, 63.2% of them were adherent to radiation treatment. People with smaller tumor size and lower comorbidity score are more likely to adherent to this radiation guideline. There is no significant survival difference between radiation adherent patients and non-adherent patients (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.82-1.29). For the 1122 regional rectal cancer patients 80 years old or younger who were treated with surgery, 76.0% of them received postoperative chemotherapy, in adherence to the treatment guidelines. People with younger age and smaller comorbidity score are related with higher adherence rate. Patients adherent with adjuvant chemotherapy in this cohort have better survival than those were not adherent (HR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.45-0.79).^

A molecular study of the rhodopsin locus in patients with retinitis pigmentosa

DNA for this study was collected from a sample of 133 retinitis pigmentosa (RP) patients and the rhodopsin locus molecularly analyzed by linkage and for disease specific mutations. The cohort of patients consisted of 85 individuals diagnosed with autosomal dominant RP (adRP), and 48 patients representing other forms of retinitis pigmentosa or retinal dystrophy related disease. In three large families with adRP rhodopsin was excluded from linkage to the disease locus. A search for subtle mutations in the rhodopsin coding region using single strand conformational polymorphisms (SSCP) and sequencing detected a total of 14 unique sequence variants in 24 unrelated patients. These variants included one splicing variant, 5168 -1G-A, one deletion variant of 17 base pairs causing a frame shift at codon 332, and 12 misense variants: Pro23His, Leu46Arg, Gly106Trp, Arg135Pro, Pro171Glu, Pro180Ala, Glu181Lys, Asp190Asn, His211Arg, Ser270Arg, Leu328Pro and Pro347Thr. All but three of the missense variants change amino acids that are evolutionarily conserved. The Pro23His mutation was found in 10 unrelated individuals with family histories of adRP and not in any normal controls (over 80 chromosomes tested). The Pro180Ala mutation was present in a patient with simplex RP and probably represents a new mutation. Three normal polymorphic nucleotide substitutions, A-269-G, T-3982-C, and G-5145-A, were also identified. We conclude, based on this study, that 25% of adRP cases are attributable to rhodopsin mutations.^ Clinical data, including ERG results and visual field testing, was available for patients with eleven different mutations. The eleven patients were all diagnosed with RP, however the severity of the disease varied with five patients mildly affected and diagnosed with type II adRP and 5 patients severely affected and diagnosed with type I adRP. The patient with simplex RP was mildly affected. The location of the mutations within the rhodopsin protein was randomly associated with the severity of the disease in those patients evaluated. However, four mutations, Pro23His, Leu46Arg, Pro347Thr, and 5168 -1G-A, are particularly interesting. The Pro23His mutation appears to have radiated from a recent common ancestor of the affected patients as all of them share a common haplotype at the rhodopsin locus. The Leu46Arg mutation causes an unusually severe form of RP. Hydropathy analysis of the mutated sequence revealed a marked change in the hydrophobicity of this first transmembrane spanning region. Codon 347 has been the target of multiple mutations with at least six documented changes at the position, significantly more than expected by a random distribution of mutations. Finally the splice-site variant is extremely variable in its expression in the family studied. Similar mutations have been reported in other cases of adRP and postulated to be involved in autosomal recessive RP (arRP). Mechanisms to account for the variable expression of rhodopsin mutations in relation to RP heterogeneity are discussed. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Effect of cancer chemotherapy on the frequency of minisatellite repeat number changes in human sperm

The objective of this study was to determine whether cancer chemotherapy induces detectable mutations in DNA of the human germline and whether minisatellite repeat number changes can be used as a sensitive indicator of genetic damage in human sperm caused by mutagens. We compared the mutation frequencies in sperm of the same cancer patients pre- and post-, pre- and during, or during and post-treatment. Small pool polymerase chain reaction (SP-PCR) (DNA equivalent to approximately 100 sperm) and Southern blotting techniques were used to detect mutations and quantify the frequency of repeat number changes at the minisatellite MS205 locus. One pre- and one post-treatment semen sample was obtained from each Hodgkin's disease patient treated with either: (1) a regimen without alkylating agents, Novantrone, Oncovin, Vinblastine, and Prednisone (NOVP), 4 patients; (2) a regimen containing alkylating agents, Cytoxan, Vinblastine, Procarbazine, and Prednisone (CVPP)/Adriamycin, Bleomycin, DTIC, CCNU, and Prednisone (ABDIC), 2 patients; and (3) a regimen containing alkylating agents, Mechlorethamine, Oncovin, Procarbazine, and Prednisone (MOPP), 1 patient. One pre- and one during treatment semen sample from each of two Hodgkin's disease patients treated with Adriamycin, Bleomycin, Vinblastine, and Dacarbazine (ABVD) were obtained. One during and one post-treatment semen sample from a Hodgkin's disease patient treated with NOVP were also obtained. At least 7900 sperm in each sample were screened for the repeat number changes at the MS205 locus by multi-aliquots of SP-PCR. The mutation frequencies of pre- and post-treatment for the four patients treated with NOVP were 0.22 and 0.18%; 0.24 and 0.16%; 0.35 and 0.28%; and 0.19 and 0.18%. With CVPP/ABDIC, they were 0.22 and 0.23%; and 0.94 and 0.98% for the two patients and with MOPP they were 0.79 and 1.14%. The mutation frequencies of pre- and during treatment with ABVD were 0.09 and 0.07%; and 0.34 and 0.27% for the two patients. The mutation frequencies of during and post-treatment with NOVP for one patient were 0.31 and 0.25%. A statistically significant increase in mutation frequency was only found in the patient treated with MOPP. According to the time of samples collected after or during treatment and the above results, we conclude that there is no effect of NOVP and CVPP/ABDIC regimens on the mutation frequency in spermatogonia. The spermatocytes are not highly sensitive to chemotherapy agents compared to spermatogonia at the minisatellite MS205 locus. MOPP treatment may increase the mutation frequency at the MS205 locus in spermatogonia. ^

CYTOGENETIC AND DNA CONTENT ANALYSIS IN MULTIPLE MYELOMA

In this dissertation, the cytogenetic characteristics of bone marrow cells from 41 multiple myeloma patients were investigated. These cytogenetic data were correlated with the total DNA content as measured by flow cytometry. Both the cytogenetic information and DNA content were then correlated with clinical data to determine if diagnosis and prognosis of multiple myeloma could be improved.^ One hundred percent of the patients demonstrated abnormal chromosome numbers per metaphase. The average chromosome number per metaphase ranged from 42 to 49.9, with a mean of 44.99. The percent hypodiploidy ranged from 0-100% and the percent hyperdiploidy from 0-53%. Detailed cytogenetic analyses were very difficult to perform because of the paucity of mitotic figures and the poor chromosome morphology. Thus, detailed chromosome banding analysis on these patients was impossible.^ Thirty seven percent of the patients had normal total DNA content, whereas 63% had abnormal amounts of DNA (one patient with less than normal amounts and 25 patients with greater than normal amounts of DNA).^ Several clinical parameters were used in the statistical analyses: tumor burden, patient status at biopsy, patient response status, past therapy, type of treatment and percent plasma cells. Only among these clinical parameters were any statistically significant correlations found: pretreatment tumor burden versus patient response, patient biopsy status versus patient response and past therapy versus patient response.^ No correlations were found between percent hypodiploid, diploid, hyperdiploid or DNA content, and the patient response status, nor were any found between those patients with: (a) normal plasma cells, low pretreatment tumor mass burden and more than 50% of the analyzed metaphases with 46 chromosomes; (b) normal amounts of DNA, low pretreatment tumor mass burden and more than 50% of the metaphases with 46 chromosomes; (c) normal amounts of DNA and normal quantities of plasma cells; (d) abnormal amounts of DNA, abnormal amounts of plasma cells, high pretreatment tumor mass burden and less than 50% of the metaphases with 46 chromosomes.^ Technical drawbacks of both cytogenetic and DNA content analysis in these multiple myeloma patients are discussed along with the lack of correlations between DNA content and chromosome number. Refined chromosome banding analysis awaits technical improvements before we can understand which chromosome material (if any) makes up the "extra" amounts of DNA in these patients. None of the correlations tested can be used as diagnostic or prognostic aids for multiple myeloma. ^

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.