IN-VIVO CT DOSIMETRY DURING VIRTUAL COLONOSCOPY

Virtual colonoscopy (VC) is a minimally invasive means for identifying colorectal polyps and colorectal lesions by insufflating a patient’s bowel, applying contrast agent via rectal catheter, and performing multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) scans. The technique is recommended for colonic health screening by the American Cancer Society but not funded by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) partially because of potential risks from radiation exposure. To date, no in‐vivo organ dose measurements have been performed for MDCT scans; thus, the accuracy of any current dose estimates is currently unknown. In this study, two TLDs were affixed to the inner lumen of standard rectal catheters used in VC, and in-vivo rectal dose measurements were obtained within 6 VC patients. In order to calculate rectal dose, TLD-100 powder response was characterized at diagnostic doses such that appropriate correction factors could be determined for VC. A third-order polynomial regression with a goodness of fit factor of R2=0.992 was constructed from this data. Rectal dose measurements were acquired with TLDs during simulated VC within a modified anthropomorphic phantom configured to represent three sizes of patients undergoing VC. The measured rectal doses decreased in an exponential manner with increasing phantom effective diameter, with R2=0.993 for the exponential regression model and a maximum percent coefficient of variation (%CoV) of 4.33%. In-vivo measurements yielded rectal doses ranged from that decreased exponentially with increasing patient effective diameter, in a manner that was also favorably predicted by the size specific dose estimate (SSDE) model for all VC patients that were of similar age, body composition, and TLD placement. The measured rectal dose within a younger patient was favorably predicted by the anthropomorphic phantom dose regression model due to similarities in the percentages of highly attenuating material at the respective measurement locations and in the placement of the TLDs. The in-vivo TLD response did not increase in %CoV with decreasing dose, and the largest %CoV was 10.0%.

NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

A simulation study of the standard design, the rolling six design, the CRM, and the modified CRM in Phase I clinical trials

The Phase I clinical trial is considered the "first in human" study in medical research to examine the toxicity of a new agent. It determines the maximum tolerable dose (MTD) of a new agent, i.e., the highest dose in which toxicity is still acceptable. Several phase I clinical trial designs have been proposed in the past 30 years. The well known standard method, so called the 3+3 design, is widely accepted by clinicians since it is the easiest to implement and it does not need a statistical calculation. Continual reassessment method (CRM), a design uses Bayesian method, has been rising in popularity in the last two decades. Several variants of the CRM design have also been suggested in numerous statistical literatures. Rolling six is a new method introduced in pediatric oncology in 2008, which claims to shorten the trial duration as compared to the 3+3 design. The goal of the present research was to simulate clinical trials and compare these phase I clinical trial designs. Patient population was created by discrete event simulation (DES) method. The characteristics of the patients were generated by several distributions with the parameters derived from a historical phase I clinical trial data review. Patients were then selected and enrolled in clinical trials, each of which uses the 3+3 design, the rolling six, or the CRM design. Five scenarios of dose-toxicity relationship were used to compare the performance of the phase I clinical trial designs. One thousand trials were simulated per phase I clinical trial design per dose-toxicity scenario. The results showed the rolling six design was not superior to the 3+3 design in terms of trial duration. The time to trial completion was comparable between the rolling six and the 3+3 design. However, they both shorten the duration as compared to the two CRM designs. Both CRMs were superior to the 3+3 design and the rolling six in accuracy of MTD estimation. The 3+3 design and rolling six tended to assign more patients to undesired lower dose levels. The toxicities were slightly greater in the CRMs.^