A comparison of two statistical methods for analysis of day of the week effect on births from 2005-2007 in Harris County of Texas

The pattern of the births during the week has been reported by many studies. The births occurred in weekends are found consistently less then births occurred in weekdays. This study employed two statistical methods, two-way ANOVA and two-way Friedman's test to analyse the daily variations in amount of births of 222,735 births from 2005-2007 in Harris County, Texas. The two methods were compared on their assumptions, procedures and results. Both of the tests showed a significant result which indicated that the births through the week are not uniformly distributed. The result of multiple comparison demonstrated the births occurring on weekends were significantly different than the births occurring on weekdays with least amount on Sundays.^

THEORETICAL STUDIES ON THE METHODS OF RECONSTRUCTING PHYLOGENETIC TREES FROM DNA SEQUENCE DATA (MOLECULAR EVOLUTION, HOMINOID EVOLUTION, COMPUTER SIMULATION)

(1) A mathematical theory for computing the probabilities of various nucleotide configurations is developed, and the probability of obtaining the correct phylogenetic tree (model tree) from sequence data is evaluated for six phylogenetic tree-making methods (UPGMA, distance Wagner method, transformed distance method, Fitch-Margoliash's method, maximum parsimony method, and compatibility method). The number of nucleotides (m*) necessary to obtain the correct tree with a probability of 95% is estimated with special reference to the human, chimpanzee, and gorilla divergence. m* is at least 4,200, but the availability of outgroup species greatly reduces m* for all methods except UPGMA. m* increases if transitions occur more frequently than transversions as in the case of mitochondrial DNA. (2) A new tree-making method called the neighbor-joining method is proposed. This method is applicable either for distance data or character state data. Computer simulation has shown that the neighbor-joining method is generally better than UPGMA, Farris' method, Li's method, and modified Farris method on recovering the true topology when distance data are used. A related method, the simultaneous partitioning method, is also discussed. (3) The maximum likelihood (ML) method for phylogeny reconstruction under the assumption of both constant and varying evolutionary rates is studied, and a new algorithm for obtaining the ML tree is presented. This method gives a tree similar to that obtained by UPGMA when constant evolutionary rate is assumed, whereas it gives a tree similar to that obtained by the maximum parsimony tree and the neighbor-joining method when varying evolutionary rate is assumed. ^

Years of potential life lost among Hispanics and non-Hispanics in Bexar County

While numerous studies have found similar mortality rates for Hispanics compared to non-Hispanic whites, surprisingly little is known about years of potential life lost (YPLL) differentials in mortality. The primary purpose of this paper is to quantify the effect that YPLL has on Hispanics in order to determine if YPLL differs between Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites. Using YPLL may bring attention to dissimilarities that are often obscured through traditional measures. Bexar County 2000-2004 data from the Texas Department of State Health Services, Vital Statistics Unit was analyzed for the descriptive analysis and 2003 Bexar County Multiple Cause Death data was analyzed for the regression analysis. The multiple regression models were used to examine Hispanic and non-Hispanic white differences in years of potential life lost (YPLL) before age 75 from all-causes of death. For this analysis, YPLL was regressed on ethnicity, education level and marital status for men and women. The descriptive analysis found YPLL from all-causes was greater among non-Hispanic whites than Hispanics. However, the regression analysis found Hispanics lost more year of potential from all-causes of death compared to non-Hispanic whites. This indicates that the effect of ethnicity on YPLL differs for different methods of analysis. Future research efforts should keep in mind the method of analysis when using YPLL. Understanding differences in mortality among Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites is important for targeting future health policies and research to aid in eliminating Hispanic health disparities. ^

Comparison of alternative methods of contact tracing in a syphilis control program

The purpose of this study was to compare the relative effectiveness of alternative methods of tracing named contacts of syphilis patients. A total of 236 contacts, identified by patients in two City of Houston Department of Health and Human Services clinics during the period April 1 through July 31, 1987, were studied. After contacts were grouped by sex and age, the proportion brought to examination by each of three methods, and by a combination of methods, was determined for each subgroup.^ The study found that 78.4% of all the 236 named sex contacts reported were located and brought to examination by the various methods of contact tracing and that 21.6% were missed. Of the 185 contacts examined, a combination of methods identified 47.7% of the cases, telephone contact, 28.6%, field contact, 16.9%, and patient referral, 11.8%.^ Of the 236 contacts reported, males made up 56.8% and females 43.2%. Contact tracing was more successful among females, with 81.4% of the 102 named female contacts, as compared to 76.1% of the 134 named male contacts being brought to examination. It is not known whether equal efforts were exerted in the follow-up of both male and female contacts. In both female and male subgroups, a combination of methods brought over 40% of sex contacts to examination. Telephone contact among females yielded 27.7% of the cases and field contact 18.1%, whereas in males, telephone contact identified 29.4% of the cases and field contact 15.7%. Patient referral was the least productive method in both sex groups, locating 12.8% in males as compared to 10.8% in females.^ On an age specific basis, a combination of methods was the most effective method in the 15-39 age group, whereas telephone contact was most effective in the 40-44 age group, and field contact in the 50-54 age group. Of all the methods of contact tracing, patient referral was the least productive in most age groups.^ Future studies of contact tracing should incorporate several important variables which were not examined in this study. ^

The Need for Balanced Methods of Measuring Performance

Michelle Rhee weighs in on measuring success in pubic education.

Gene by BMI Interactions Influencing C-Reactive Protein Levels in European-Americans

C-Reactive Protein (CRP) is a biomarker indicating tissue damage, inflammation, and infection. High-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) is an emerging biomarker often used to estimate an individual’s risk for future coronary heart disease (CHD). hsCRP levels falling below 1.00 mg/l indicate a low risk for developing CHD, levels ranging between 1.00 mg/l and 3.00 mg/l indicate an elevated risk, and levels exceeding 3.00 mg/l indicate high risk. Multiple Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) have identified a number of genetic polymorphisms which influence CRP levels. SNPs implicated in such studies have been found in or near genes of interest including: CRP, APOE, APOC, IL-6, HNF1A, LEPR, and GCKR. A strong positive correlation has also been found to exist between CRP levels and BMI, a known risk factor for CHD and a state of chronic inflammation. We conducted a series of analyses designed to identify loci which interact with BMI to influence CRP levels in a subsample of European-Americans in the ARIC cohort. In a stratified GWA analysis, 15 genetic regions were identified as having significantly (p-value < 2.00*10-3) distinct effects on hsCRP levels between the two obesity strata: lean (18.50 kg/m2 < BMI < 24.99 kg/m2) and obese (BMI ≥ 30.00 kg/m2). A GWA analysis performed on all individuals combined (i.e. not a priori stratified for obesity status) with the inclusion of an additional parameter for BMI by gene interaction, identified 11 regions which interact with BMI to influence hsCRP levels. Two regions containing the genes GJA5 and GJA8 (on chromosome 1) and FBXO11 (on chromosome 2) were identified in both methods of analysis suggesting that these genes possibly interact with BMI to influence hsCRP levels. We speculate that atrial fibrillation (AF), age-related cataracts and the TGF-β pathway may be the biological processes influenced by the interaction of GJA5, GJA8 and FBXO11, respectively, with BMI to cause changes in hsCRP levels. Future studies should focus on the influence of gene x bmi interaction on AF, age-related cataracts and TGF-β.

A Bayesian approach to estimating the intraclass correlation coefficient

A Bayesian approach to estimating the intraclass correlation coefficient was used for this research project. The background of the intraclass correlation coefficient, a summary of its standard estimators, and a review of basic Bayesian terminology and methodology were presented. The conditional posterior density of the intraclass correlation coefficient was then derived and estimation procedures related to this derivation were shown in detail. Three examples of applications of the conditional posterior density to specific data sets were also included. Two sets of simulation experiments were performed to compare the mean and mode of the conditional posterior density of the intraclass correlation coefficient to more traditional estimators. Non-Bayesian methods of estimation used were: the methods of analysis of variance and maximum likelihood for balanced data; and the methods of MIVQUE (Minimum Variance Quadratic Unbiased Estimation) and maximum likelihood for unbalanced data. The overall conclusion of this research project was that Bayesian estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient can be appropriate, useful and practical alternatives to traditional methods of estimation. ^