Joint effects of pulmonary function and aerobic power on survival in a cohort of healthy adults

Objective measurements of physical fitness and pulmonary function are related individually to long-term survival, both in healthy people and in those who are ill. These factors are furthermore known to be related to one another physiologically in people with pulmonary disease, because advanced pulmonary disease causes ventilatory limitation to exercise. Healthy people do not have ventilatory limitation to exercise, but rather have ventilatory reserve. The relationship between pulmonary function and exercise performance in healthy people is minimal. Exercise performance has been shown to modify the effect of pulmonary function on mortality in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but the relationship between these factors in healthy people has not been studied and is not known. The purpose of this study is to quantify the joint effects of pulmonary function and exercise performance as these bear on mortality in a cohort of healthy adults. This investigation is an historical cohort study over 20 years of follow-up of 29,624 adults who had complete preventive medicine, spirometry and treadmill stress examinations at the Cooper Clinic in Dallas, Texas.^ In 20 years of follow-up, there were 738 evaluable deaths. Forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV$\sb1$) percent of predicted, treadmill time in minutes percent of predicted, age, gender, body mass index, baseline smoking status, serum glucose and serum total cholesterol were all significant, independent predictors of mortality risk. There were no frank interactions, although age had an important increasing effect on the risk associated with smoking when other covariates were controlled for in a proportional-hazards model. There was no confounding effect of exercise performance on pulmonary function. In agreement with the pertinent literature on independent effects, each unit increase in FEV$\sb1$ percent predicted was associated with about eight tenths of a percent reduction in adjusted mortality rate. The concept of physiologic reserve is useful in interpretation of the findings. Since pulmonary function does not limit exercise tolerance in healthy adults, it is reasonable to expect that exercise tolerance would not modify the effect of pulmonary function on mortality. Epidemiologic techniques are useful for elucidating physiological correlates of mortality risk. ^

Postoperative renal function preservation with nonischemic femoral arterial cannulation for thoracoabdominal aortic repair.

BACKGROUND: Renal failure after thoracoabdominal aortic repair is a significant clinical problem. Distal aortic perfusion for organ and spinal cord protection requires cannulation of the left femoral artery. In 2006, we reported the finding that direct cannulation led to leg ischemia in some patients and was associated with increased renal failure. After this finding, we modified our perfusion technique to eliminate leg ischemia from cannulation. In this article, we present the effects of this change on postoperative renal function. METHODS: Between February 1991 and July 2008, we repaired 1464 thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms. Distal aortic perfusion was used in 1088, and these were studied. Median patient age was 68 years, and 378 (35%) were women. In September 2006, we began to adopt a sidearm femoral cannulation technique that provides distal aortic perfusion while maintaining downstream flow to the leg. This was used in 167 patients (15%). We measured the joint effects of preoperative glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and cannulation technique on the highest postoperative creatinine level, postoperative renal failure, and death. Analysis was by multiple linear or logistic regression with interaction. RESULTS: The preoperative GFR was the strongest predictor of postoperative renal dysfunction and death. No significant main effects of sidearm cannulation were noted. For peak creatinine level and postoperative renal failure, however, strong interactions between preoperative GFR and sidearm cannulation were present, resulting in reductions of postoperative renal complications of 15% to 20% when GFR was <60 mL>/min/1.73 m(2). For normal GFR, the effect was negated or even reversed at very high levels of GFR. Mortality, although not significantly affected by sidearm cannulation, showed a similar trend to the renal outcomes. CONCLUSION: Use of sidearm cannulation is associated with a clinically important and highly statistically significant reduction in postoperative renal complications in patients with a low GFR. Reduced renal effect of skeletal muscle ischemia is the proposed mechanism. Effects among patients with good preoperative renal function are less clear. A randomized trial is needed.

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^