Data quality in trauma transfusion studies and the impact of missing data on predicting massive transfusion

Maximizing data quality may be especially difficult in trauma-related clinical research. Strategies are needed to improve data quality and assess the impact of data quality on clinical predictive models. This study had two objectives. The first was to compare missing data between two multi-center trauma transfusion studies: a retrospective study (RS) using medical chart data with minimal data quality review and the PRospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study with standardized quality assurance. The second objective was to assess the impact of missing data on clinical prediction algorithms by evaluating blood transfusion prediction models using PROMMTT data. RS (2005-06) and PROMMTT (2009-10) investigated trauma patients receiving ≥ 1 unit of red blood cells (RBC) from ten Level I trauma centers. Missing data were compared for 33 variables collected in both studies using mixed effects logistic regression (including random intercepts for study site). Massive transfusion (MT) patients received ≥ 10 RBC units within 24h of admission. Correct classification percentages for three MT prediction models were evaluated using complete case analysis and multiple imputation based on the multivariate normal distribution. A sensitivity analysis for missing data was conducted to estimate the upper and lower bounds of correct classification using assumptions about missing data under best and worst case scenarios. Most variables (17/33=52%) had <1% missing data in RS and PROMMTT. Of the remaining variables, 50% demonstrated less missingness in PROMMTT, 25% had less missingness in RS, and 25% were similar between studies. Missing percentages for MT prediction variables in PROMMTT ranged from 2.2% (heart rate) to 45% (respiratory rate). For variables missing >1%, study site was associated with missingness (all p≤0.021). Survival time predicted missingness for 50% of RS and 60% of PROMMTT variables. MT models complete case proportions ranged from 41% to 88%. Complete case analysis and multiple imputation demonstrated similar correct classification results. Sensitivity analysis upper-lower bound ranges for the three MT models were 59-63%, 36-46%, and 46-58%. Prospective collection of ten-fold more variables with data quality assurance reduced overall missing data. Study site and patient survival were associated with missingness, suggesting that data were not missing completely at random, and complete case analysis may lead to biased results. Evaluating clinical prediction model accuracy may be misleading in the presence of missing data, especially with many predictor variables. The proposed sensitivity analysis estimating correct classification under upper (best case scenario)/lower (worst case scenario) bounds may be more informative than multiple imputation, which provided results similar to complete case analysis.^

Studies of subcellular localization and complex formation of the Agrobacterium tumefaciens transport ATPase VirB11

The VirB11 ATPase is an essential component of an Agrobacterium tumefaciens type IV bacterial secretion system that transfers oncogenic nucleoprotein complexes to susceptible plant cells. This dissertation investigates the subcellular localization and homo-oligomeric state of the VirB11 ATPase in order to provide insights about the assembly of the protein as a subunit of this membrane-associated transfer system. Subcellular fractionation studies and quantitative immunoblot analysis demonstrated that $\sim$30% of VirB11 partitioned as soluble protein and $\sim$70% was tightly associated with the bacterial cytoplasmic membrane. No differences were detected in VirB11 subcellular localization and membrane association in the presence or absence of other transport system components. Mutations in virB11 affecting protein function were mapped near the amino terminus, just upstream of a region encoding a Walker 'A' nucleotide-binding site, and within the Walker 'A' motif partitioned almost exclusively with the cytoplasmic membrane, suggesting that an activity associated with nucleotide binding could modulate the affinity of VirB11 for the cytoplasmic membrane. Merodiploid analysis of VirB11 mutant and truncation derivatives provided strong evidence that VirB11 functions as a homo- or heteromultimer and that the C-terminal half of VirB11 contains a protein interaction domain. A combination of biochemical and molecular genetic approaches suggested that VirB11 and the green fluorescence protein (GFP) formed a mixed multimer as demonstrated by immunoprecipitation experiments with anti-GFP antibodies. Second, a hybrid protein composed of VirB11 fused to the N-terminal DNA-binding domain of bacteriophage $\lambda$ cI repressor conferred immunity to $\lambda$ superinfection, demonstrating that VirB11 self-association promotes dimerization of the chimeric repressor. A conserved Walker 'A' motif, though required for VirB11 function in T-complex export, was not necessary for VirB11 self-association. Sequences in both the N- and the C-terminal halves of the protein were found to contribute to self-association of the full length protein. Chemical cross-linking experiments with His$\sb6$ tagged VirB11 suggested that VirB11 probably assembles into a higher order homo-oligomeric complex. ^

Theoretical and experimental studies of linkage disequilibrium in human populations

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is defined as the nonrandom association of alleles at two or more loci in a population and may be a useful tool in a diverse array of applications including disease gene mapping, elucidating the demographic history of populations, and testing hypotheses of human evolution. However, the successful application of LD-based approaches to pertinent genetic questions is hampered by a lack of understanding about the forces that mediate the genome-wide distribution of LD within and between human populations. Delineating the genomic patterns of LD is a complex task that will require interdisciplinary research that transcends traditional scientific boundaries. The research presented in this dissertation is predicated upon the need for interdisciplinary studies and both theoretical and experimental projects were pursued. In the theoretical studies, I have investigated the effect of genotyping errors and SNP identification strategies on estimates of LD. The primary importance of these two chapters is that they provide important insights and guidance for the design of future empirical LD studies. Furthermore, I analyzed the allele frequency distribution of 26,530 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in three populations and generated the first-generation natural selection map of the human genome, which will be an important resource for explaining and understanding genomic patterns of LD. Finally, in the experimental study, I describe a novel and simple, low-cost, and high-throughput SNP genotyping method. The theoretical analyses and experimental tools developed in this dissertation will facilitate a more complete understanding of patterns of LD in human populations. ^

Delineating the molecular basis of human genetic diseases: Epigenetic and functional studies

Identifying and characterizing the genes responsible for inherited human diseases will ultimately lead to a more holistic understanding of disease pathogenesis, catalyze new diagnostic and treatment modalities, and provide insights into basic biological processes. This dissertation presents research aimed at delineating the genetic and molecular basis of human diseases through epigenetic and functional studies and can be divided into two independent areas of research. The first area of research describes the development of two high-throughput melting curve based methods to assay DNA methylation, referred to as McMSP and McCOBRA. The goal of this project was to develop DNA methylation methods that can be used to rapidly determine the DNA methylation status at a specific locus in a large number of samples. McMSP and McCOBRA provide several advantages over existing methods, as they are simple, accurate, robust, and high-throughput making them applicable to large-scale DNA methylation studies. McMSP and McCOBRA were then used in an epigenetic study of the complex disease Ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Specifically, I tested the hypothesis that aberrant patterns of DNA methylation in five AS candidate genes contribute to disease susceptibility. While no statistically significant methylation differences were observed between cases and controls, this is the first study to investigate the hypothesis that epigenetic variation contributes to AS susceptibility and therefore provides the conceptual framework for future studies. ^ In the second area of research, I performed experiments to better delimit the function of aryl hydrocarbon receptor-interacting protein-like 1 (AIPL1), which when mutated causes various forms of inherited blindness such as Leber congenital amaurosis. A yeast two-hybrid screen was performed to identify putative AIPL1-interacting proteins. After screening 2 × 106 bovine retinal cDNA library clones, 6 unique putative AIPL1-interacting proteins were identified. While these 6 AIPL1 protein-protein interactions must be confirmed, their identification is an important step in understanding the functional role of AIPL1 within the retina and will provide insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying inherited blindness. ^

BAYESIAN STATISTICAL METHODS IN GENE-ENVIRONMENT AND GENE-GENE INTERACTION STUDIES

Complex diseases such as cancer result from multiple genetic changes and environmental exposures. Due to the rapid development of genotyping and sequencing technologies, we are now able to more accurately assess causal effects of many genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies have been able to localize many causal genetic variants predisposing to certain diseases. However, these studies only explain a small portion of variations in the heritability of diseases. More advanced statistical models are urgently needed to identify and characterize some additional genetic and environmental factors and their interactions, which will enable us to better understand the causes of complex diseases. In the past decade, thanks to the increasing computational capabilities and novel statistical developments, Bayesian methods have been widely applied in the genetics/genomics researches and demonstrating superiority over some regular approaches in certain research areas. Gene-environment and gene-gene interaction studies are among the areas where Bayesian methods may fully exert its functionalities and advantages. This dissertation focuses on developing new Bayesian statistical methods for data analysis with complex gene-environment and gene-gene interactions, as well as extending some existing methods for gene-environment interactions to other related areas. It includes three sections: (1) Deriving the Bayesian variable selection framework for the hierarchical gene-environment and gene-gene interactions; (2) Developing the Bayesian Natural and Orthogonal Interaction (NOIA) models for gene-environment interactions; and (3) extending the applications of two Bayesian statistical methods which were developed for gene-environment interaction studies, to other related types of studies such as adaptive borrowing historical data. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model framework that allows us to investigate the genetic and environmental effects, gene by gene interactions (epistasis) and gene by environment interactions in the same model. It is well known that, in many practical situations, there exists a natural hierarchical structure between the main effects and interactions in the linear model. Here we propose a model that incorporates this hierarchical structure into the Bayesian mixture model, such that the irrelevant interaction effects can be removed more efficiently, resulting in more robust, parsimonious and powerful models. We evaluate both of the 'strong hierarchical' and 'weak hierarchical' models, which specify that both or one of the main effects between interacting factors must be present for the interactions to be included in the model. The extensive simulation results show that the proposed strong and weak hierarchical mixture models control the proportion of false positive discoveries and yield a powerful approach to identify the predisposing main effects and interactions in the studies with complex gene-environment and gene-gene interactions. We also compare these two models with the 'independent' model that does not impose this hierarchical constraint and observe their superior performances in most of the considered situations. The proposed models are implemented in the real data analysis of gene and environment interactions in the cases of lung cancer and cutaneous melanoma case-control studies. The Bayesian statistical models enjoy the properties of being allowed to incorporate useful prior information in the modeling process. Moreover, the Bayesian mixture model outperforms the multivariate logistic model in terms of the performances on the parameter estimation and variable selection in most cases. Our proposed models hold the hierarchical constraints, that further improve the Bayesian mixture model by reducing the proportion of false positive findings among the identified interactions and successfully identifying the reported associations. This is practically appealing for the study of investigating the causal factors from a moderate number of candidate genetic and environmental factors along with a relatively large number of interactions. The natural and orthogonal interaction (NOIA) models of genetic effects have previously been developed to provide an analysis framework, by which the estimates of effects for a quantitative trait are statistically orthogonal regardless of the existence of Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) within loci. Ma et al. (2012) recently developed a NOIA model for the gene-environment interaction studies and have shown the advantages of using the model for detecting the true main effects and interactions, compared with the usual functional model. In this project, we propose a novel Bayesian statistical model that combines the Bayesian hierarchical mixture model with the NOIA statistical model and the usual functional model. The proposed Bayesian NOIA model demonstrates more power at detecting the non-null effects with higher marginal posterior probabilities. Also, we review two Bayesian statistical models (Bayesian empirical shrinkage-type estimator and Bayesian model averaging), which were developed for the gene-environment interaction studies. Inspired by these Bayesian models, we develop two novel statistical methods that are able to handle the related problems such as borrowing data from historical studies. The proposed methods are analogous to the methods for the gene-environment interactions on behalf of the success on balancing the statistical efficiency and bias in a unified model. By extensive simulation studies, we compare the operating characteristics of the proposed models with the existing models including the hierarchical meta-analysis model. The results show that the proposed approaches adaptively borrow the historical data in a data-driven way. These novel models may have a broad range of statistical applications in both of genetic/genomic and clinical studies.