S9511: a Southwest Oncology Group phase II study of trimetrexate, 5-fluorouracil, and leucovorin in unresectable or metastatic adenocarcinoma of the stomach.

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of this trial was to evaluate the response rate for trimetrexate in conjunction with 5-FU and leucovorin (LV) (= TFL) in the treatment of advanced gastric cancer in a phase II, cooperative group setting. METHODS: Patients with locally advanced, unresectable, or metastatic adenocarcinoma of the stomach received trimetrexate 110 mg/m IV over 60 minutes day 1, followed by 5-FU 500 mg/m IV bolus and LV 200 mg/m IV over 60 minutes day 2, followed by oral LV 15 mg every 6 hours x 7 doses, all weekly for 6 weeks followed by 2 weeks of rest, continued until progression. RESULTS: Characteristics for 37 eligible patients: median age 63 (range: 23-83); male/female: 69% of 31%; performance status 0/1/2 15/20/1. The confirmed response rate was 19%, and median overall survival was 6 months. Two patients died as a result of therapy, 1 because of infection without significant neutropenia, and 1 due to perforation of a responding gastric lesion. Seventy-two percent experienced grades 3 and 4 toxicity, most commonly diarrhea, fatigue, and lymphopenia. CONCLUSIONS: This regimen achieves response rates comparable to other 5-FU-based regimens, when used in treatment of incurable gastric cancer. Toxicity appears manageable.

Apply response adaptive randomization to group sequential with early stopping

Group sequential methods and response adaptive randomization (RAR) procedures have been applied in clinical trials due to economical and ethical considerations. Group sequential methods are able to reduce the average sample size by inducing early stopping, but patients are equally allocated with half of chance to inferior arm. RAR procedures incline to allocate more patients to better arm; however it requires more sample size to obtain a certain power. This study intended to combine these two procedures. We applied the Bayesian decision theory approach to define our group sequential stopping rules and evaluated the operating characteristics under RAR setting. The results showed that Bayesian decision theory method was able to preserve the type I error rate as well as achieve a favorable power; further by comparing with the error spending function method, we concluded that Bayesian decision theory approach was more effective on reducing average sample size.^

A simulation study using the hybrid statistic and the meta-analysis t-test for data with matched and unmatched subjects in the interim analysis of clinical trials

An interim analysis is usually applied in later phase II or phase III trials to find convincing evidence of a significant treatment difference that may lead to trial termination at an earlier point than planned at the beginning. This can result in the saving of patient resources and shortening of drug development and approval time. In addition, ethics and economics are also the reasons to stop a trial earlier. In clinical trials of eyes, ears, knees, arms, kidneys, lungs, and other clustered treatments, data may include distribution-free random variables with matched and unmatched subjects in one study. It is important to properly include both subjects in the interim and the final analyses so that the maximum efficiency of statistical and clinical inferences can be obtained at different stages of the trials. So far, no publication has applied a statistical method for distribution-free data with matched and unmatched subjects in the interim analysis of clinical trials. In this simulation study, the hybrid statistic was used to estimate the empirical powers and the empirical type I errors among the simulated datasets with different sample sizes, different effect sizes, different correlation coefficients for matched pairs, and different data distributions, respectively, in the interim and final analysis with 4 different group sequential methods. Empirical powers and empirical type I errors were also compared to those estimated by using the meta-analysis t-test among the same simulated datasets. Results from this simulation study show that, compared to the meta-analysis t-test commonly used for data with normally distributed observations, the hybrid statistic has a greater power for data observed from normally, log-normally, and multinomially distributed random variables with matched and unmatched subjects and with outliers. Powers rose with the increase in sample size, effect size, and correlation coefficient for the matched pairs. In addition, lower type I errors were observed estimated by using the hybrid statistic, which indicates that this test is also conservative for data with outliers in the interim analysis of clinical trials.^

THEORETICAL STUDIES ON THE METHODS OF RECONSTRUCTING PHYLOGENETIC TREES FROM DNA SEQUENCE DATA (MOLECULAR EVOLUTION, HOMINOID EVOLUTION, COMPUTER SIMULATION)

(1) A mathematical theory for computing the probabilities of various nucleotide configurations is developed, and the probability of obtaining the correct phylogenetic tree (model tree) from sequence data is evaluated for six phylogenetic tree-making methods (UPGMA, distance Wagner method, transformed distance method, Fitch-Margoliash's method, maximum parsimony method, and compatibility method). The number of nucleotides (m*) necessary to obtain the correct tree with a probability of 95% is estimated with special reference to the human, chimpanzee, and gorilla divergence. m* is at least 4,200, but the availability of outgroup species greatly reduces m* for all methods except UPGMA. m* increases if transitions occur more frequently than transversions as in the case of mitochondrial DNA. (2) A new tree-making method called the neighbor-joining method is proposed. This method is applicable either for distance data or character state data. Computer simulation has shown that the neighbor-joining method is generally better than UPGMA, Farris' method, Li's method, and modified Farris method on recovering the true topology when distance data are used. A related method, the simultaneous partitioning method, is also discussed. (3) The maximum likelihood (ML) method for phylogeny reconstruction under the assumption of both constant and varying evolutionary rates is studied, and a new algorithm for obtaining the ML tree is presented. This method gives a tree similar to that obtained by UPGMA when constant evolutionary rate is assumed, whereas it gives a tree similar to that obtained by the maximum parsimony tree and the neighbor-joining method when varying evolutionary rate is assumed. ^

Cultural models of healing and health: An ethnography of professional nurses and healers

Cultural models of the domains healing and health are important in how people understand health and their behavior regarding it. The biomedicine model has been predominant in Western society. Recent popularity of holistic health and alternative healing modalities contrasts with the biomedical model and the assumptions upon which that model has been practiced. The holistic health movement characterizes an effort by health care providers and others such as nurses to expand the biomedical model and has often incorporated alternative modalities. This research described and compared the cultural models of healing of professional nurses and alternative healers. A group of nursing faculty who promote a holistic model were compared to a group of healers using healing touch. Ethnographic methods of participant observation, free listing and pile sort were used. Theoretical sampling in the free listings reached saturation at 18 in the group of nurses and 21 in the group of healers. Categories consistent for both groups emerged from the data. These were: physical, mental, attitude, relationships, spiritual, self management, and health seeking including biomedical and alternative resources. The healers had little differentiation between the concepts health and healing. The nurses, however, had more elements in self management for health and in health seeking for healing. This reflects the nurse's role in facilitating the shift in locus of responsibility between health and healing. The healers provided more specific information regarding alternative resources. The healer's conceptualization of health was embedded in a spiritual belief system and contrasted dramatically with that of biomedicine. The healer's models also contrasted with holistic health in the areas of holism, locus of responsibility, and dealing with uncertainty. The similarity between the groups and their dissimilarity to biomedicine suggest a larger cultural shift in beliefs regarding health care. ^

Design and implementation of a multicriteria medical decision support system for diagnosis and treatment

Health care providers face the problem of trying to make decisions with inadequate information and also with an overload of (often contradictory) information. Physicians often choose treatment long before they know which disease is present. Indeed, uncertainty is intrinsic to the practice of medicine. Decision analysis can help physicians structure and work through a medical decision problem, and can provide reassurance that decisions are rational and consistent with the beliefs and preferences of other physicians and patients. ^ The primary purpose of this research project is to develop the theory, methods, techniques and tools necessary for designing and implementing a system to support solving medical decision problems. A case study involving “abdominal pain” serves as a prototype for implementing the system. The research, however, focuses on a generic class of problems and aims at covering theoretical as well as practical aspects of the system developed. ^ The main contributions of this research are: (1) bridging the gap between the statistical approach and the knowledge-based (expert) approach to medical decision making; (2) linking a collection of methods, techniques and tools together to allow for the design of a medical decision support system, based on a framework that involves the Analytic Network Process (ANP), the generalization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to dependence and feedback, for problems involving diagnosis and treatment; (3) enhancing the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in the ANP framework by incorporating group consensus weights; and (4) developing a computer program to assist in the implementation of the system. ^

A COMPARISON OF TWO METHODS FOR THE DETECTION OF FECAL POLLUTION IN DRINKING WATER (HYDROGEN SULFIDE, INDICATOR, MODIFICATION)

A new technique for the detection of microbiological fecal pollution in drinking and in raw surface water has been modified and tested against the standard multiple-tube fermentation technique (most-probable-number, MPN). The performance of the new test in detecting fecal pollution in drinking water has been tested at different incubation temperatures. The basis for the new test was the detection of hydrogen sulfide produced by the hydrogen sulfide producing bacteria which are usually associated with the coliform group. The positive results are indicated by the appearance of a brown to black color in the contents of the fermentation tube within 18 to 24 hours of incubation at 35 (+OR-) .5(DEGREES)C. For this study 158 water samples of different sources have been used. The results were analyzed statistically with the paired t-test and the one-way analysis of variance. No statistically significant difference was noticed between the two methods, when tested 35 (+OR-) .5(DEGREES)C, in detecting fecal pollution in drinking water. The new test showed more positive results with raw surface water, which could be due to the presence of hydrogen sulfide producing bacteria of non-fecal origin like Desulfovibrio and Desulfomaculum. The survival of the hydrogen sulfide producing bacteria and the coliforms was also tested over a 7-day period, and the results showed no significant difference. The two methods showed no significant difference when used to detect fecal pollution at a very low coliform density. The results showed that the new test is mostly effective, in detecting fecal pollution in drinking water, when used at 35 (+OR-) .5(DEGREES)C. The new test is effective, simple, and less expensive when used to detect fecal pollution in drinking water and raw surface water at 35 (+OR-) .5(DEGREES)C. The method can be used for qualitative and/or quantitative analysis of water in the field and in the laboratory. ^

A focused ethnographic study of community social capital

Social capital, a relatively new public health concept, represents the intangible resources embedded in social relationships that facilitate collective action. Current interest in the concept stems from empirical studies linking social capital with health outcomes. However, in order for social capital to function as a meaningful research variable, conceptual development aimed at refining the domains, attributes, and boundaries of the concept are needed. An existing framework of social capital (Uphoff, 2000), developed from studies in India, was selected for congruence with the inductive analysis of pilot data from a community that was unsuccessful at mobilizing collective action. This framework provided the underpinnings for a formal ethnographic research study designed to examine the components of social capital in a community that had successfully mobilized collective action. The specific aim of the ethnographic study was to examine the fittingness of Uphoff's framework in the contrasting American community. A contrasting context was purposefully selected to distinguish essential attributes of social capital from those that were specific to one community. Ethnographic data collection methods included participant observation, formal interviews, and public documents. Data was originally analyzed according to codes developed from Uphoff's theoretical framework. The results from this analysis were only partially satisfactory, indicating that the theoretical framework required refinement. The refinement of the coding system resulted in the emergence of an explanatory theory of social capital that was tested with the data collected from formal fieldwork. Although Uphoff's framework was useful, the refinement of the framework revealed, (1) trust as the dominant attribute of social capital, (2) efficacy of mutually beneficial collective action as the outcome indicator, (3) cognitive and structural domains more appropriately defined as the cultural norms of the community and group, and (4) a definition of social capital as the combination of the cognitive norms of the community and the structural norms of the group that are either constructive or destructive to the development of trust and the efficacy of mutually beneficial collective action. This explanatory framework holds increased pragmatic utility for public health practice and research. ^

Sociodemographic characteristics as predictors of successful smoking cessation among a group of Hispanic Spanish speaking smokers

Few studies have examined predictors of smoking abstinence among Hispanic groups. The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relations of sociodemographic characteristics and smoking related factors with smoking abstinence among a group of Hispanic Spanish speaking smokers. This study utilized previously collected data from Hispanic Spanish-speaking smokers (N = 246) who participated in a study entitled Smoking Cessation Services for Hispanic Smokers in Texas. ^ The first study examined sociodemographic characteristics and smoking related mechanisms that predicted smoking abstinence among this group. Two of the characteristics were related to smoking abstinence, marital status and acculturation level. Being unmarried increased the likelihood of being abstinent at the 12 week assessment (OR = 1.80). Those in the high acculturation group were twice as likely to be abstinent (OR = 2.24). Of the smoking related mechanisms, those with higher positive reinforcement expectancies were less likely to be abstinent (OR = .86), as were those with a higher level of affiliative attachment (OR = .86), a higher level of craving (OR = .78) and a higher tolerance to the effect of smoking (OR = .74). The second study was to examine the relationship of objective measures of socioeconomic status (SES) (income, education, or employment) with smoking abstinence among this group. This study also compared the relationship of a subjective measure of SES (Social Status Ladder) to smoking abstinence. None of the objective measures of SES were related to smoking abstinence at the 12 week assessment. The subjective measure of SES did predict smoking abstinence (OR = 1.9) indicting that those that rated themselves ≤4 on the SES scale were more likely to be abstinent. ^ Although this group was recruited using various methods across the state of Texas, the fact that they preferred to interact with the counselor in Spanish may limit the study findings. The results of this study highlight the need for research to examine specific subgroups of people and understand the special circumstances that influence their health behaviors. Furthering our knowledge of the relations between sociodemographic characteristics and smoking cessation could lead to interventions that reduce disparities in smoking cessation. ^

Clinical decisions related to CBC screening of asymptomatic full-term infants at risk for group B streptococcus disease

Objective. Although complete blood count (CBC) changes occur with the development of clinical sepsis in newborns, the CBC has not been reported to be a sensitive predictor of sepsis in asymptomatic full-term newborn infants, nor has it been reported to be related to risk factors for sepsis or clinical decisions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the WBC/I:T (immature:total neutrophil) ratio and maternal group B streptococcal (GBS) risk factors (rupture of membranes ≥18 hours, maternal temperature ≥100.4°F, maternal age ≤20 years, previous infant with invasive GBS disease, maternal GBS bacteriuria, and black ethnicity); and to evaluate the relationship between the WBC/I:T ratios and providers' clinical decisions (observe versus repeat the CBC or complete sepsis evaluation) in the asymptomatic full-term newborn at risk for early-onset GBS sepsis. ^ Methods. Medical records of infants admitted to the well baby nursery at a tertiary care teaching hospital in Houston, TX between 1/1/99 and 12/31/00 whose gestational ages were ≥35 weeks; who had mothers with GBS positive or unknown culture status and inadequate intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis; and who had screening CBCs performed in the first 30 hours of life because of GBS risk were reviewed (n = 412). Demographic information, maternal GBS risk factors, CBC results, clinical decisions, and rationales for clinical decisions were collected. ^ Results. With the exception of black ethnicity (p = .0000, odds ratio = 0.213), no statistically significant differences in risk factors between infants with normal and abnormal WBC counts or normal and abnormal I:T ratios were found. Infants with abnormal WBCs had a significantly higher likelihood of having a CBC repeated (p = 0.002 for WBC). Providers documented the CBC result in the rationale for clinical decisions in 62% of the cases. ^ Conclusion. The CBC results were not related to maternal risk factors for GBS except for ethnicity. Black infants had significantly lower WBC levels than infants of other ethnicities, although this difference was clinically insignificant. Infants with abnormal WBCs had a significantly higher likelihood of undergoing repeat CBCs but not sepsis evaluations. Provider rationale was difficult to evaluate due to insufficient documentation. The screening CBC result did not impact the clinicians' decisions to initiate sepsis evaluations in this population. ^

Alpha C protein of group B Streptococcus as a potential vaccine candidate

Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is a leading cause of life-threatening infection in neonates and young infants, pregnant women, and non-pregnant adults with underlying medical conditions. Immunization has theoretical potential to prevent significant morbidity and mortality from GBS disease. Alpha C protein (α C), found in 70% of non-type III capsule polysaccharide group B Streptococcus, elicits antibodies protective against α C-expressing strains in experimental animals and is an appealing carrier for a GBS conjugate vaccine. We determined whether natural exposure to α C elicits antibodies in women and if high maternal α C-specific serum antibody at delivery is associated with protection against neonatal disease. An ELISA was designed to measure α C-specific IgM and IgG in human sera. A case-control design (1:3 ratio) was used to match α C-expressing GBS colonized and non-colonized women by age and compare quantified serum α C-specific IgM and IgG. Sera also were analyzed from bacteremic neonates and their mothers and from women with invasive GBS disease. Antibody concentrations were compared using t-tests on log-transformed data. Geometric mean concentrations of α C-specific IgM and IgG were similar in sera from 58 α C strain colonized and 174 age-matched non-colonized women (IgG 245 and 313 ng/ml; IgM 257 and 229 ng/ml, respectively). Delivery sera from mothers of 42 neonates with GBS α C sepsis had similar concentrations of α C-specific IgM (245 ng/ml) and IgG (371 ng/ml), but acute sera from 13 women with invasive α C-expressing GBS infection had significantly higher concentrations (IgM 383 and IgG 476 ng/ml [p=0.036 and 0.038, respectively]). Convalescent sera from 5 of these women 16-49 days later had high α C-specific IgM and IgG concentrations (1355 and 4173 ng/ml, respectively). In vitro killing of α C-expressing GBS correlated with total α C-specific antibody concentration. Invasive disease but not colonization elicits α C-specific IgM and IgG in adults. Whether α C-specific IgG induced by vaccine would protect against disease in neonates merits further investigation. ^

An intervention mapping approach: Identification of human trafficking victims by health professionals

Background. Today modern day slavery is known as human trafficking and is a growing pandemic that is a grave human rights violation. Estimates suggest that 12.3 million people are working under conditions of force, fraud or coercion. Working toward eradication is a worthy effort; it would free millions of humans from slavery, mostly women and children, as well as uphold basic human rights. One tactic to eradicating human trafficking is to increase identification of victims among those likely to encounter victims of human trafficking.^ Purpose. This study aims to develop an intervention that improves certain stakeholders' ability, in the health clinic setting, to appropriately identify and report victims of human trafficking to the National Human Trafficking Resource Center.^ Methods. The Intervention Mapping (IM) process was used by program planners to develop an intervention for health professionals. This methodology is a six step process that guides program planners to develop an intervention. Each step builds on the others through the execution of a needs assessment, and the development of matrices based on performance objectives and determinants of the targeted health behavior. The end product results in an ecological, theoretical, and evidence based intervention.^ Discussion. The IM process served as a useful protocol for program planners to take an ecological approach as well as incorporate theory and evidence into the intervention. Consultation with key informants, the planning group, adopters, implementers, and individuals responsible for institutionalization also contributed to the practicality and feasibility of the intervention. Program planners believe that this intervention fully meets recommendations set forth in the literature.^ Conclusions. The intervention mapping methodology enabled program planners to develop an intervention that is appropriate and acceptable to the implementer and the recipients.^

Performance tiers: Implementing comparative effectiveness analysis in the health care setting through operations research and spatial methods

This dissertation develops and tests a comparative effectiveness methodology utilizing a novel approach to the application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in health studies. The concept of performance tiers (PerT) is introduced as terminology to express a relative risk class for individuals within a peer group and the PerT calculation is implemented with operations research (DEA) and spatial algorithms. The analysis results in the discrimination of the individual data observations into a relative risk classification by the DEA-PerT methodology. The performance of two distance measures, kNN (k-nearest neighbor) and Mahalanobis, was subsequently tested to classify new entrants into the appropriate tier. The methods were applied to subject data for the 14 year old cohort in the Project HeartBeat! study.^ The concepts presented herein represent a paradigm shift in the potential for public health applications to identify and respond to individual health status. The resultant classification scheme provides descriptive, and potentially prescriptive, guidance to assess and implement treatments and strategies to improve the delivery and performance of health systems. ^

Comparison of alternative methods of contact tracing in a syphilis control program

The purpose of this study was to compare the relative effectiveness of alternative methods of tracing named contacts of syphilis patients. A total of 236 contacts, identified by patients in two City of Houston Department of Health and Human Services clinics during the period April 1 through July 31, 1987, were studied. After contacts were grouped by sex and age, the proportion brought to examination by each of three methods, and by a combination of methods, was determined for each subgroup.^ The study found that 78.4% of all the 236 named sex contacts reported were located and brought to examination by the various methods of contact tracing and that 21.6% were missed. Of the 185 contacts examined, a combination of methods identified 47.7% of the cases, telephone contact, 28.6%, field contact, 16.9%, and patient referral, 11.8%.^ Of the 236 contacts reported, males made up 56.8% and females 43.2%. Contact tracing was more successful among females, with 81.4% of the 102 named female contacts, as compared to 76.1% of the 134 named male contacts being brought to examination. It is not known whether equal efforts were exerted in the follow-up of both male and female contacts. In both female and male subgroups, a combination of methods brought over 40% of sex contacts to examination. Telephone contact among females yielded 27.7% of the cases and field contact 18.1%, whereas in males, telephone contact identified 29.4% of the cases and field contact 15.7%. Patient referral was the least productive method in both sex groups, locating 12.8% in males as compared to 10.8% in females.^ On an age specific basis, a combination of methods was the most effective method in the 15-39 age group, whereas telephone contact was most effective in the 40-44 age group, and field contact in the 50-54 age group. Of all the methods of contact tracing, patient referral was the least productive in most age groups.^ Future studies of contact tracing should incorporate several important variables which were not examined in this study. ^

Multivariate methods for correlated effects sizes

Current statistical methods for estimation of parametric effect sizes from a series of experiments are generally restricted to univariate comparisons of standardized mean differences between two treatments. Multivariate methods are presented for the case in which effect size is a vector of standardized multivariate mean differences and the number of treatment groups is two or more. The proposed methods employ a vector of independent sample means for each response variable that leads to a covariance structure which depends only on correlations among the $p$ responses on each subject. Using weighted least squares theory and the assumption that the observations are from normally distributed populations, multivariate hypotheses analogous to common hypotheses used for testing effect sizes were formulated and tested for treatment effects which are correlated through a common control group, through multiple response variables observed on each subject, or both conditions.^ The asymptotic multivariate distribution for correlated effect sizes is obtained by extending univariate methods for estimating effect sizes which are correlated through common control groups. The joint distribution of vectors of effect sizes (from $p$ responses on each subject) from one treatment and one control group and from several treatment groups sharing a common control group are derived. Methods are given for estimation of linear combinations of effect sizes when certain homogeneity conditions are met, and for estimation of vectors of effect sizes and confidence intervals from $p$ responses on each subject. Computational illustrations are provided using data from studies of effects of electric field exposure on small laboratory animals. ^