SURVIVAL PREDICTION FOR BRAIN TUMOR PATIENTS USING GENE EXPRESSION DATA

Brain tumor is one of the most aggressive types of cancer in humans, with an estimated median survival time of 12 months and only 4% of the patients surviving more than 5 years after disease diagnosis. Until recently, brain tumor prognosis has been based only on clinical information such as tumor grade and patient age, but there are reports indicating that molecular profiling of gliomas can reveal subgroups of patients with distinct survival rates. We hypothesize that coupling molecular profiling of brain tumors with clinical information might improve predictions of patient survival time and, consequently, better guide future treatment decisions. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the general goal of this research is to build models for survival prediction of glioma patients using DNA molecular profiles (U133 Affymetrix gene expression microarrays) along with clinical information. First, a predictive Random Forest model is built for binary outcomes (i.e. short vs. long-term survival) and a small subset of genes whose expression values can be used to predict survival time is selected. Following, a new statistical methodology is developed for predicting time-to-death outcomes using Bayesian ensemble trees. Due to a large heterogeneity observed within prognostic classes obtained by the Random Forest model, prediction can be improved by relating time-to-death with gene expression profile directly. We propose a Bayesian ensemble model for survival prediction which is appropriate for high-dimensional data such as gene expression data. Our approach is based on the ensemble "sum-of-trees" model which is flexible to incorporate additive and interaction effects between genes. We specify a fully Bayesian hierarchical approach and illustrate our methodology for the CPH, Weibull, and AFT survival models. We overcome the lack of conjugacy using a latent variable formulation to model the covariate effects which decreases computation time for model fitting. Also, our proposed models provides a model-free way to select important predictive prognostic markers based on controlling false discovery rates. We compare the performance of our methods with baseline reference survival methods and apply our methodology to an unpublished data set of brain tumor survival times and gene expression data, selecting genes potentially related to the development of the disease under study. A closing discussion compares results obtained by Random Forest and Bayesian ensemble methods under the biological/clinical perspectives and highlights the statistical advantages and disadvantages of the new methodology in the context of DNA microarray data analysis.

The use of the computerized and revised vital record in conducting etiologic studies on neural tube defects

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of computerized vital records in Texas for conducting etiologic studies on neural tube defects (NTDs), using the revised and expanded National Centers for Health Statistics vital record forms introduced in Texas in 1989.^ Cases of NTDs (anencephaly and spina bifida) among Harris County (Houston) residents were identified from the computerized birth and death records for 1989-1991. The validity of the system was then measured against cases ascertained independently through medical records and death certificates. The computerized system performed poorly in its identification of NTDs, particularly for anencephaly, where the false positive rate was 80% with little or no improvement over the 3-year period. For both NTDs the sensitivity and predictive value positive of the tapes were somewhat higher for Hispanic than non-Hispanic mothers.^ Case control studies were conducted utilizing the tape set and the independently verified data set, using controls selected from the live birth tapes. Findings varied widely between the data sets. For example, the anencephaly odds ratio for Hispanic mothers (vs. non-Hispanic) was 1.91 (CI = 1.38-2.65) for the tape file, but 3.18 (CI = 1.81-5.58) for verified records. The odds ratio for diabetes was elevated for the tape set (OR = 3.33, CI = 1.67-6.66) but not for verified cases (OR = 1.09, CI = 0.24-4.96), among whom few mothers were diabetic. It was concluded that computerized tapes should not be solely relied on for NTD studies.^ Using the verified cases, Hispanic mother was associated with spina bifida, and Hispanic mother, teen mother, and previous pregnancy terminations were associated with anencephaly. Mother's birthplace, education, parity, and diabetes were not significant for either NTD.^ Stratified analyses revealed several notable examples of statistical interaction. For anencephaly, strong interaction was observed between Hispanic origin and trimester of first prenatal care.^ The prevalence was 3.8 per 10,000 live births for anencephaly and 2.0 for spina bifida (5.8 per 10,000 births for the combined categories). ^

A STUDY OF DIVERSITY AND COMMUNITY COMPARISON INDICES BY BIOASSAY OF COPPER USING COLONIZED BENTHIC MACROINVERTEBRATES

A community bioassay of copper was performed using benthic macroinvertebrates colonized on multiplate substrate samplers. Five copper concentrations ranging from 0.080-2.20 mg/l total copper were administered to five artificial streams by a Mount and Brungs proportional dilutor. Free copper ion as Cu('++) ranged from .002-.053 mg/l. A sixth stream received no copper and served as a control. Substrates were sampled at days 0, 14, and 28, and the results were used to compare 13 indices used or proposed to assess aquatic environmental impact. Sensitivity of the indices to changes in communities with respect to concentration and time was the basis for the comparison.^ Results indicated that all of the 8 diversity or richness indices tested gave approximately the same result (with the exception of number of species); they increased over the first 2-3 concentrations, then declined. Included among these was the Shannon index which gave false positive results, i.e., it increased, indicating enrichment, when in fact perturbation had occurred. This result was due to the disproportionate effect on the most abundant taxa, which caused a more even distribution of individuals among species. Number of species and individuals declined with increased concentration and time, with only one exception in the case of species, indicating perturbation.^ Results of five community comparison indices were varied at day 14 but by day 28 the results indicated a clear, nearly monotonic, trend due to copper impact. It was assumed that day 28 observations, though probably still changing, were nearer stability than at day 14 and therefore more representative of natural conditions. The changes in community comparison indices showed good agreement at 28 days and reflected the general decline in species and individuals. No single community comparison index could be set apart as superior to the others. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ATTITUDE ASSESSMENT/ROLE PERCEPTION AND THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF HOSPITAL DEPARTMENT MANAGERS

Much of the current healthcare financial literature addresses the concern of government officials, the public, and healthcare providers regarding the need for control of health care costs. The literature suggests that attitudes of hospital department managers toward their role in financial management affects their ability to effect favorable financial results.^ There were several objectives of the dissertation: (1) To identify whether or not there exists a relationship between the attitude/role perception of hospital managers and the financial performance of their departments. (2) To compile a descriptive survey data base of key factors identified in the financial literature from individual hospitals. (3) To compile a brief descriptive survey of hospital managers' financial management background and training (both formal and informal). (4) To conduct an attitude assessment/role perception survey regarding the importance or relevance of a suggested financial management role set (i.e., issues discussed in the current literature) as viewed by the selected hospital managers and their matched administrators. (5) To propose plausible theoretical models and statistical tests of seven proposed hypotheses.^ The statistical results of a variety of methods generally suggested, for the sample population, that the null hypothesis should not be rejected concerning the relationships between a department manager's financial attitudes and role perceptions and the resultant financial performance.^ The fact that the results of this study did not suggest that there was a significant relationship which existed between role perception and financial performance does not necessarily indicate that the theories supporting such a relationship in literature are false, not that such a relationship does not exist. Several alternative theories were postulated to explain the apparent lack of statistical relationship, and suggestions for refinement and/or improvement of further research were discussed. ^

The assumptions and effects of conservative procedures in low -dose risk assessment for setting safety standards

Conservative procedures in low-dose risk assessment are used to set safety standards for known or suspected carcinogens. However, the assumptions upon which the methods are based and the effects of these methods are not well understood.^ To minimize the number of false-negatives and to reduce the cost of bioassays, animals are given very high doses of potential carcinogens. Results must then be extrapolated to much smaller doses to set safety standards for risks such as one per million. There are a number of competing methods that add a conservative safety factor into these calculations.^ A method of quantifying the conservatism of these methods was described and tested on eight procedures used in setting low-dose safety standards. The results using these procedures were compared by computer simulation and by the use of data from a large scale animal study.^ The method consisted of determining a "true safe dose" (tsd) according to an assumed underlying model. If one assumed that Y = the probability of cancer = P(d), a known mathematical function of the dose, then by setting Y to some predetermined acceptable risk, one can solve for d, the model's "true safe dose".^ Simulations were generated, assuming a binomial distribution, for an artificial bioassay. The eight procedures were then used to determine a "virtual safe dose" (vsd) that estimates the tsd, assuming a risk of one per million. A ratio R = ((tsd-vsd)/vsd) was calculated for each "experiment" (simulation). The mean R of 500 simulations and the probability R $<$ 0 was used to measure the over and under conservatism of each procedure.^ The eight procedures included Weil's method, Hoel's method, the Mantel-Byran method, the improved Mantel-Byran, Gross's method, fitting a one-hit model, Crump's procedure, and applying Rai and Van Ryzin's method to a Weibull model.^ None of the procedures performed uniformly well for all types of dose-response curves. When the data were linear, the one-hit model, Hoel's method, or the Gross-Mantel method worked reasonably well. However, when the data were non-linear, these same methods were overly conservative. Crump's procedure and the Weibull model performed better in these situations. ^

False -positives and false-negatives in tests for trend

False-positive and false-negative values were calculated for five different designs of the trend test and it was demonstrated that a design suggested by Portier and Hoel in 1984 for a different problem produced the lowest false-positive and false-negative rates when applied to historical spontaneous tumor rate data for Fischer Rats. ^

Pencil -beam redefinition algorithm dose calculations for electron therapy treatment planning

The electron pencil-beam redefinition algorithm (PBRA) of Shiu and Hogstrom has been developed for use in radiotherapy treatment planning (RTP). Earlier studies of Boyd and Hogstrom showed that the PBRA lacked an adequate incident beam model, that PBRA might require improved electron physics, and that no data existed which allowed adequate assessment of the PBRA-calculated dose accuracy in a heterogeneous medium such as one presented by patient anatomy. The hypothesis of this research was that by addressing the above issues the PBRA-calculated dose would be accurate to within 4% or 2 mm in regions of high dose gradients. A secondary electron source was added to the PBRA to account for collimation-scattered electrons in the incident beam. Parameters of the dual-source model were determined from a minimal data set to allow ease of beam commissioning. Comparisons with measured data showed 3% or better dose accuracy in water within the field for cases where 4% accuracy was not previously achievable. A measured data set was developed that allowed an evaluation of PBRA in regions distal to localized heterogeneities. Geometries in the data set included irregular surfaces and high- and low-density internal heterogeneities. The data was estimated to have 1% precision and 2% agreement with accurate, benchmarked Monte Carlo (MC) code. PBRA electron transport was enhanced by modeling local pencil beam divergence. This required fundamental changes to the mathematics of electron transport (divPBRA). Evaluation of divPBRA with the measured data set showed marginal improvement in dose accuracy when compared to PBRA; however, 4% or 2mm accuracy was not achieved by either PBRA version for all data points. Finally, PBRA was evaluated clinically by comparing PBRA- and MC-calculated dose distributions using site-specific patient RTP data. Results show PBRA did not agree with MC to within 4% or 2mm in a small fraction (<3%) of the irradiated volume. Although the hypothesis of the research was shown to be false, the minor dose inaccuracies should have little or no impact on RTP decisions or patient outcome. Therefore, given ease of beam commissioning, documentation of accuracy, and calculational speed, the PBRA should be considered a practical tool for clinical use. ^