Forecasting cost based on a stochastic utilization plan and a fixed cost function

The application of Markov processes is very useful to health-care problems. The objective of this study is to provide a structured methodology of forecasting cost based upon combining a stochastic model of utilization (Markov Chain) and deterministic cost function. The perspective of the cost in this study is the reimbursement for the services rendered. The data to be used is the OneCare database of claim records of their enrollees over a two-year period of January 1, 1996–December 31, 1997. The model combines a Markov Chain that describes the utilization pattern and its variability where the use of resources by risk groups (age, gender, and diagnosis) will be considered in the process and a cost function determined from a fixed schedule based on real costs or charges for those in the OneCare claims database. The cost function is a secondary application to the model. Goodness-of-fit will be used checked for the model against the traditional method of cost forecasting. ^

The relationship between hospital financial performance and information technology integration strategy selection

In light of the new healthcare regulations, hospitals are increasingly reevaluating their IT integration strategies to meet expanded healthcare information exchange requirements. Nevertheless, hospital executives do not have all the information they need to differentiate between the available strategies and recognize what may better fit their organizational needs. ^ In the interest of providing the desired information, this study explored the relationships between hospital financial performance, integration strategy selection, and strategy change. The integration strategies examined – applied as binary logistic regression dependent variables and in the order from most to least integrated – were Single-Vendor (SV), Best-of-Suite (BoS), and Best-of-Breed (BoB). In addition, the financial measurements adopted as independent variables for the models were two administrative labor efficiency and six industry standard financial ratios designed to provide a broad proxy of hospital financial performance. Furthermore, descriptive statistical analyses were carried out to evaluate recent trends in hospital integration strategy change. Overall six research questions were proposed for this study. ^ The first research question sought to answer if financial performance was related to the selection of integration strategies. The next questions, however, explored whether hospitals were more likely to change strategies or remain the same when there was no external stimulus to change, and if they did change, they would prefer strategies closer to the existing ones. These were followed by a question that inquired if financial performance was also related to strategy change. Nevertheless, rounding up the questions, the last two probed if the new Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) Act had any impact on the frequency and direction of strategy change. ^ The results confirmed that financial performance is related to both IT integration strategy selection and strategy change, while concurred with prior studies that suggested hospital and environmental characteristics are associated factors as well. Specifically this study noted that the most integrated SV strategy is related to increased administrative labor efficiency and the hybrid BoS strategy is associated with improved financial health (based on operating margin and equity financing ratios). On the other hand, no financial indicators were found to be related to the least integrated BoB strategy, except for short-term liquidity (current ratio) when involving strategy change. ^ Ultimately, this study concluded that when making IT integration strategy decisions hospitals closely follow the resource dependence view of minimizing uncertainty. As each integration strategy may favor certain organizational characteristics, hospitals traditionally preferred not to make strategy changes and when they did, they selected strategies that were more closely related to the existing ones. However, as new regulations further heighten revenue uncertainty while require increased information integration, moving forward, as evidence already suggests a growing trend of organizations shifting towards more integrated strategies, hospitals may be more limited in their strategy selection choices.^

Quality of care for uninsured type 2 diabetic patients in a financial assistance medical home model

The medically uninsured population in the United States is 16% or 42 million people and consists of a significant number of Type 2 diabetic patients which is the predominant form of diabetes with 798,000 new cases diagnosed each year. There is limited health services research on uninsured populations concerning health system measures or specific disease conditions. ^ The purpose of this investigation was to determine the impact a newly implemented health care program had on the quality of care provided to patients with Type 2 diabetes. The primary study objective was to compare the quality of care while controlling for utilization, and health status of patients in the new program to their status during the previous financial assistance program. The research design was a retrospective matched-pairs design. The study population consisted of 225 patients who received medical care during 1996 and 1997 at the University Health System in San Antonio, Texas. ^ Six quality of care measures individually failed to demonstrate a statistically significant difference when compared between the two periods. However, an index measure reflecting the number of patients who received all six of the quality of care measures demonstrated a statistically significant increase in 1997 (p-value < 0.05). In 1996, 8 patients (2.6%) received all six medical management components. In 1997, 38 patients (16.8%) received all six medical management components. Four regression models were analyzed; two out of the four models demonstrated inconsistent results based on the program membership variable. ^ It is concluded that there has been a small effect of the Carelink program demonstrated by an increase from 8 to 38 patients receiving all quality of care components for Type 2 diabetics at the UHS. It is recommended that additional research be conducted in order to evaluate the quality of care provided to Type 2 diabetic patients. ^

Government initiatives to expand access to employer-based health insurance

Employer-based health insurance is declining at records rates, which leaves an increasing number of people without access to affordable health insurance. As a result, municipalities are experiencing financial difficulties to provide health care services for their growing uninsured population. In attempt to combat this issue, three health polices have emerged within the last ten years, called Living Wage with a health insurance provision, Pay or Play, and Health Care Preference. These policies are gaining popularity as civic leaders recognize their ability to promote a public health goal by leveraging the power of city and county contracts to include a health insurance component in the competitive bidding practice for government contracts. ^ This is the first paper to conduct a retrospective analysis on whether these three health policies have been able to increase access to employer-based health insurance and/or support the local health care safety net based on the experiences of six municipalities over a 5-year period from 2001-2006. Although there was variation between the effectiveness of the policies, all three demonstrated success in that a number of contractors extended existing health insurance to employees not previously covered and the increased cost of contracting for the local government was, on average, less than 1 percent of the total operating budget. ^

The Open Door Mission: Measuring and predicting outcomes of one community-based substance abuse treatment program

The objectives of this study were to identify and measure the average outcomes of the Open Door Mission's nine-month community-based substance abuse treatment program, identify predictors of successful outcomes, and make recommendations to the Open Door Mission for improving its treatment program.^ The Mission's program is exclusive to adult men who have limited financial resources: most of which were homeless or dependent on parents or other family members for basic living needs. Many, but not all, of these men are either chemically dependent or have a history of substance abuse.^ This study tracked a cohort of the Mission's graduates throughout this one-year study and identified various indicators of success at short-term intervals, which may be predictive of longer-term outcomes. We tracked various levels of 12-step program involvement, as well as other social and spiritual activities, such as church affiliation and recovery support.^ Twenty-four of the 66 subjects, or 36% met the Mission's requirements for success. Specific to this success criteria; Fifty-four, or 82% reported affiliation with a home church; Twenty-six, or 39% reported full-time employment; Sixty-one, or 92% did not report or were not identified as having any post-treatment arrests or incarceration, and; Forty, or 61% reported continuous abstinence from both drugs and alcohol.^ Five research-based hypotheses were developed and tested. The primary analysis tool was the web-based non-parametric dependency modeling tool, B-Course, which revealed some strong associations with certain variables, and helped the researchers generate and test several data-driven hypotheses. Full-time employment is the greatest predictor of abstinence: 95% of those who reported full time employment also reported continuous post-treatment abstinence, while 50% of those working part-time were abstinent and 29% of those with no employment were abstinent. Working with a 12-step sponsor, attending aftercare, and service with others were identified as predictors of abstinence.^ This study demonstrates that associations with abstinence and the ODM success criteria are not simply based on one social or behavioral factor. Rather, these relationships are interdependent, and show that abstinence is achieved and maintained through a combination of several 12-step recovery activities. This study used a simple assessment methodology, which demonstrated strong associations across variables and outcomes, which have practical applicability to the Open Door Mission for improving its treatment program. By leveraging the predictive capability of the various success determination methodologies discussed and developed throughout this study, we can identify accurate outcomes with both validity and reliability. This assessment instrument can also be used as an intervention that, if operationalized to the Mission’s clients during the primary treatment program, may measurably improve the effectiveness and outcomes of the Open Door Mission.^

A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

Feminism, gender equity and sexual/reproductive health in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

Sexual/reproductive/health and rights are crucial public health concerns that have been specifically integrated into the Millennium Development Goals to be accomplished by 2015. These issues are related to several health outcomes, including HIV/AIDS and gender-based violence (GBV) among women. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), West Bank and Gaza (WBG), and Yemen. This region is primarily Arabic speaking (except for Israel and Iran), and primarily Muslim (except for Israel). Some traditional and cultural views and practices in this region engender gender inequalities, which manifest themselves in the economic, political and social spheres. HIV and gender-based violence in the region may be interlinked with gender inequalities which breed justification for partner violence and honour killings, and increase the chance that HIV will transform into an epidemic in the region if not addressed. A feminist framework, focused on economic, political and social empowerment for women would be useful to consider applying to sexual/reproductive health in the region.^