The assumptions and effects of conservative procedures in low -dose risk assessment for setting safety standards

Conservative procedures in low-dose risk assessment are used to set safety standards for known or suspected carcinogens. However, the assumptions upon which the methods are based and the effects of these methods are not well understood.^ To minimize the number of false-negatives and to reduce the cost of bioassays, animals are given very high doses of potential carcinogens. Results must then be extrapolated to much smaller doses to set safety standards for risks such as one per million. There are a number of competing methods that add a conservative safety factor into these calculations.^ A method of quantifying the conservatism of these methods was described and tested on eight procedures used in setting low-dose safety standards. The results using these procedures were compared by computer simulation and by the use of data from a large scale animal study.^ The method consisted of determining a "true safe dose" (tsd) according to an assumed underlying model. If one assumed that Y = the probability of cancer = P(d), a known mathematical function of the dose, then by setting Y to some predetermined acceptable risk, one can solve for d, the model's "true safe dose".^ Simulations were generated, assuming a binomial distribution, for an artificial bioassay. The eight procedures were then used to determine a "virtual safe dose" (vsd) that estimates the tsd, assuming a risk of one per million. A ratio R = ((tsd-vsd)/vsd) was calculated for each "experiment" (simulation). The mean R of 500 simulations and the probability R $<$ 0 was used to measure the over and under conservatism of each procedure.^ The eight procedures included Weil's method, Hoel's method, the Mantel-Byran method, the improved Mantel-Byran, Gross's method, fitting a one-hit model, Crump's procedure, and applying Rai and Van Ryzin's method to a Weibull model.^ None of the procedures performed uniformly well for all types of dose-response curves. When the data were linear, the one-hit model, Hoel's method, or the Gross-Mantel method worked reasonably well. However, when the data were non-linear, these same methods were overly conservative. Crump's procedure and the Weibull model performed better in these situations. ^

NHERF1 – New Modifier of Colorectal Cancer Progression

Colorectal cancer (CRC) develops from multiple progressive modifications of normal intestinal epithelium into adenocarcinoma. Loss of cell polarity has been implicated as an early event in this process, but the molecular players involved are not well known. NHERF1 (Na+/H+ Exchanger Regulatory Factor 1) is an adaptor protein with apical membrane localization in polarized epithelia. In this study, we tested our hypothesis that NHERF1 plays a role in CRC. We examined surgical CRC resection specimens for changes in NHERF1 expression, and modeled these changes in two- and three-dimensional (2D and 3D) Caco-2 CRC cell systems. NHERF1 had significant alterations from normal to adenoma and carcinoma transitions (2=38.5, d.f.=4, P<0.001), displaying apical membrane localization in normal tissue but loss of expression in adenoma and ectopic overexpression in carcinoma. In Caco-2 cell models, NHERF1 depletion induced epithelial-mesenchymal-transition in 2D cell monolayers and disruption of apical-basal polarity in 3D cyst system. The mesenchymal phenotype of NHERF1-depleted cells was fully restored by re-expression of NHERF1 at the apical membrane. Cytoplasmic and nuclear NHERF1 re-expression not only failed to restore the epithelial phenotype but led to more aggressive phenotypes. Our findings suggest that membrane NHERF1 is an important regulator of epithelial morphogenesis, and that changes in NHERF1 expression correlate with CRC progression. NHERF1 loss and ectopic expression that induce massive disruption of epithelial cell polarity may, thereby, mark important steps in CRC development.

Multiple imputation for missing continuous and dichotomous data: The effects of patterns of missingness and variable correlations on type I error with small samples

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of predictor variable correlations and patterns of missingness with dichotomous and/or continuous data in small samples when missing data is multiply imputed. Missing data of predictor variables is multiply imputed under three different multivariate models: the multivariate normal model for continuous data, the multinomial model for dichotomous data and the general location model for mixed dichotomous and continuous data. Subsequent to the multiple imputation process, Type I error rates of the regression coefficients obtained with logistic regression analysis are estimated under various conditions of correlation structure, sample size, type of data and patterns of missing data. The distributional properties of average mean, variance and correlations among the predictor variables are assessed after the multiple imputation process. ^ For continuous predictor data under the multivariate normal model, Type I error rates are generally within the nominal values with samples of size n = 100. Smaller samples of size n = 50 resulted in more conservative estimates (i.e., lower than the nominal value). Correlation and variance estimates of the original data are retained after multiple imputation with less than 50% missing continuous predictor data. For dichotomous predictor data under the multinomial model, Type I error rates are generally conservative, which in part is due to the sparseness of the data. The correlation structure for the predictor variables is not well retained on multiply-imputed data from small samples with more than 50% missing data with this model. For mixed continuous and dichotomous predictor data, the results are similar to those found under the multivariate normal model for continuous data and under the multinomial model for dichotomous data. With all data types, a fully-observed variable included with variables subject to missingness in the multiple imputation process and subsequent statistical analysis provided liberal (larger than nominal values) Type I error rates under a specific pattern of missing data. It is suggested that future studies focus on the effects of multiple imputation in multivariate settings with more realistic data characteristics and a variety of multivariate analyses, assessing both Type I error and power. ^

Growth and development of body fat distribution from skinfold measurements: Longitudinal principal components

Longitudinal principal components analyses on a combination of four subcutaneous skinfolds (biceps, triceps, subscapular and suprailiac) were performed using data from the London Longitudinal Growth Study. The main objectives were to discover at what age during growth sex differences in body fat distribution occur and to see if there is continuity in body fatness and body fat distribution from childhood into the adult status (18 years). The analyses were done for four age sectors (3mon-3yrs, 3yrs-8yrs, 8yrs-18yrs and 3yrs-18yrs). Longitudinal principal component one (LPC1) for each age interval in both sexes represents the population mean fat curve. Component two (LPC2) is a velocity of fatness component. Component three (LPC3) in the 3mon-3yrs age sector represents infant fat wave in both sexes. In the next two age sectors component three in males represents peaks and shifts in fat growth (change in velocity), while in females it represents body fat distribution. Component four (LPC4) in the same two age sectors is a reversal in the sexes of the patterns seen for component three, i.e., in males it is body fat distribution and in females velocity shifts. Components five and above represent more complicated patterns of change (multiple increases and decreases across the age interval). In both sexes there is strong tracking in fatness from middle childhood to adolescence. In males only there is also a low to moderate tracking of infant fat with middle to late childhood fat. These data are strongly supported in the literature. Several factors are known to predict adult fatness among the most important being previous levels of fatness (at earlier ages) and the age at rebound. In addition we found that the velocity of fat change in middle childhood was highly predictive of later fatness (r $\approx -$0.7), even more so than age at rebound (r $\approx -$0.5). In contrast to fatness (LPC1), body fat distribution (LPC3-LPC4) did not track well even though significant components of body fat distribution occur at each age. Tracking of body fat distribution was higher in females than males. Sex differences in body fat distribution are non existent. Some sex differences are evident with the peripheral-to-central ratios after age 14 years. ^

Tracking the Flow of Information through the Hippocampal Formation in the Rat

The hippocampus receives input from upper levels of the association cortex and is implicated in many mnemonic processes, but the exact mechanisms by which it codes and stores information is an unresolved topic. This work examines the flow of information through the hippocampal formation while attempting to determine the computations that each of the hippocampal subfields performs in learning and memory. The formation, storage, and recall of hippocampal-dependent memories theoretically utilize an autoassociative attractor network that functions by implementing two competitive, yet complementary, processes. Pattern separation, hypothesized to occur in the dentate gyrus (DG), refers to the ability to decrease the similarity among incoming information by producing output patterns that overlap less than the inputs. In contrast, pattern completion, hypothesized to occur in the CA3 region, refers to the ability to reproduce a previously stored output pattern from a partial or degraded input pattern. Prior to addressing the functional role of the DG and CA3 subfields, the spatial firing properties of neurons in the dentate gyrus were examined. The principal cell of the dentate gyrus, the granule cell, has spatially selective place fields; however, the behavioral correlates of another excitatory cell, the mossy cell of the dentate polymorphic layer, are unknown. This report shows that putative mossy cells have spatially selective firing that consists of multiple fields similar to previously reported properties of granule cells. Other cells recorded from the DG had single place fields. Compared to cells with multiple fields, cells with single fields fired at a lower rate during sleep, were less likely to burst, and were more likely to be recorded simultaneously with a large population of neurons that were active during sleep and silent during behavior. These data suggest that single-field and multiple-field cells constitute at least two distinct cell classes in the DG. Based on these characteristics, we propose that putative mossy cells tend to fire in multiple, distinct locations in an environment, whereas putative granule cells tend to fire in single locations, similar to place fields of the CA1 and CA3 regions. Experimental evidence supporting the theories of pattern separation and pattern completion comes from both behavioral and electrophysiological tests. These studies specifically focused on the function of each subregion and made implicit assumptions about how environmental manipulations changed the representations encoded by the hippocampal inputs. However, the cell populations that provided these inputs were in most cases not directly examined. We conducted a series of studies to investigate the neural activity in the entorhinal cortex, dentate gyrus, and CA3 in the same experimental conditions, which allowed a direct comparison between the input and output representations. The results show that the dentate gyrus representation changes between the familiar and cue altered environments more than its input representations, whereas the CA3 representation changes less than its input representations. These findings are consistent with longstanding computational models proposing that (1) CA3 is an associative memory system performing pattern completion in order to recall previous memories from partial inputs, and (2) the dentate gyrus performs pattern separation to help store different memories in ways that reduce interference when the memories are subsequently recalled.

Tracking of plasma lipids and lipoproteins, within-person and year-to-year variability in plasma cholesterol levels among participants from age 8 to 18 in Project HeartBeat!

Coronary heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States and increased blood cholesterol level has been found to be a major risk factor with roots in childhood. Tracking of cholesterol, i.e., the tendency to maintain a particular cholesterol level relative to the rest of the population, and variability in blood lipid levels with increase in age have implications for cholesterol screening and assessment of lipid levels in children for possible prevention of further rise to prevent adulthood heart disease. In this study the pattern of change in plasma lipids, over time, and their tracking were investigated. Also, within-person variance and retest reliability defined as the square root of within-person variance for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides and their relation to age, sex and body mass index among participants from age 8 to 18 years were investigated. ^ In Project HeartBeat!, 678 healthy children aged 8, 11 and 14 years at baseline were enrolled and examined at 4-monthly intervals for up to 4 years. We examined the relationship between repeated observations by Pearson's correlations. Age- and sex-specific quintiles were calculated and the probability of participants to remain in the uppermost quintile of their respective distribution was evaluated with life table methods. Plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C at baseline were strongly and significantly correlated with measurements at subsequent visits across the sex and age groups. Plasma triglyceride at baseline was also significantly correlated with subsequent measurements but less strongly than was the case for other plasma lipids. The probability to remain in the upper quintile was also high (60 to 70%) for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C. ^ We used a mixed longitudinal, or synthetic cohort design with continuous observations from age 8 to 18 years to estimate within person variance of plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides. A total of 5809 measurements were available for both cholesterol and triglycerides. A multilevel linear model was used. Within-person variance among repeated measures over up to four years of follow-up was estimated for total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides separately. The relationship of within-person and inter-individual variance with age, sex, and body mass index was evaluated. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted by calculating the deviation of −2log (likelihood) within the basic model and alternative models. The square root of within-person variance provided the retest reliability (within person standard deviation) for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides. We found 13.6 percent retest reliability for plasma cholesterol, 6.1 percent for HDL-cholesterol, 11.9 percent for LDL-cholesterol and 32.4 percent for triglycerides. Retest reliability of plasma lipids was significantly related with age and body mass index. It increased with increase in body mass index and age. These findings have implications for screening guidelines, as participants in the uppermost quintile tended to maintain their status in each of the age groups during a four-year follow-up. The magnitude of within-person variability of plasma lipids influences the ability to classify children into risk categories recommended by the National Cholesterol Education Program. ^