Nonlinear tests for genetic studies of complex disease

Linkage and association studies are major analytical tools to search for susceptibility genes for complex diseases. With the availability of large collection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and the rapid progresses for high throughput genotyping technologies, together with the ambitious goals of the International HapMap Project, genetic markers covering the whole genome will be available for genome-wide linkage and association studies. In order not to inflate the type I error rate in performing genome-wide linkage and association studies, multiple adjustment for the significant level for each independent linkage and/or association test is required, and this has led to the suggestion of genome-wide significant cut-off as low as 5 × 10 −7. Almost no linkage and/or association study can meet such a stringent threshold by the standard statistical methods. Developing new statistics with high power is urgently needed to tackle this problem. This dissertation proposes and explores a class of novel test statistics that can be used in both population-based and family-based genetic data by employing a completely new strategy, which uses nonlinear transformation of the sample means to construct test statistics for linkage and association studies. Extensive simulation studies are used to illustrate the properties of the nonlinear test statistics. Power calculations are performed using both analytical and empirical methods. Finally, real data sets are analyzed with the nonlinear test statistics. Results show that the nonlinear test statistics have correct type I error rates, and most of the studied nonlinear test statistics have higher power than the standard chi-square test. This dissertation introduces a new idea to design novel test statistics with high power and might open new ways to mapping susceptibility genes for complex diseases. ^

Analysis of Variation in Clubfoot Candidate Genes

Isolated clubfoot, a common birth defect occurring in more than 135,000 livebirths worldwide each year, is associated with significant health care and financial burdens. Clubfoot is defined by forefoot adduction, hindfoot varus, midfoot cavus and hindfoot equinus. Isolated clubfoot, which is the focus of these studies, is distinct from syndromic clubfoot because there are no other associated malformations. Population, family, twin and segregation analysis studies provide evidence that genetic and environmental factors play an etiologic role in isolated clubfoot. The studies described in this thesis were performed to define the role of genetic variation in isolated clubfoot. Interrogation of a deletion region associated with syndromic clubfoot, suggested that CASP8 and CASP10, two apoptotic genes, play a role in isolated clubfoot. To explore the role of apoptotic genes in clubfoot, SNPs spanning genes involved in the apoptotic pathway in the six chromosomal deletion regions, and limb patterning genes, HOXD and HOXA, were interrogated. SNPs in mitochondrial mediated apoptotic genes and several SNPs in HOXA and HOXD genes were modestly associated with clubfoot with the most significant SNP, rs3801776, located in the basal promoter of HOXA9. Several significant associations were found with SNPs in NFAT2 and TNIP2. Significant gene interactions were detected between SNPs in HOX and apoptotic genes. These findings suggest a model for clubfoot in which variation in one gene is not sufficient to cause the malformation but requires variation several genes to perturb protein expression sufficiently to alter muscle and foot development. These results significantly impact our knowledge base by delineating underlying mechanisms causing clubfoot.

Concept, design and implementation of a cardiovascular gene-centric 50 k SNP array for large-scale genomic association studies.

A wealth of genetic associations for cardiovascular and metabolic phenotypes in humans has been accumulating over the last decade, in particular a large number of loci derived from recent genome wide association studies (GWAS). True complex disease-associated loci often exert modest effects, so their delineation currently requires integration of diverse phenotypic data from large studies to ensure robust meta-analyses. We have designed a gene-centric 50 K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array to assess potentially relevant loci across a range of cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory syndromes. The array utilizes a "cosmopolitan" tagging approach to capture the genetic diversity across approximately 2,000 loci in populations represented in the HapMap and SeattleSNPs projects. The array content is informed by GWAS of vascular and inflammatory disease, expression quantitative trait loci implicated in atherosclerosis, pathway based approaches and comprehensive literature searching. The custom flexibility of the array platform facilitated interrogation of loci at differing stringencies, according to a gene prioritization strategy that allows saturation of high priority loci with a greater density of markers than the existing GWAS tools, particularly in African HapMap samples. We also demonstrate that the IBC array can be used to complement GWAS, increasing coverage in high priority CVD-related loci across all major HapMap populations. DNA from over 200,000 extensively phenotyped individuals will be genotyped with this array with a significant portion of the generated data being released into the academic domain facilitating in silico replication attempts, analyses of rare variants and cross-cohort meta-analyses in diverse populations. These datasets will also facilitate more robust secondary analyses, such as explorations with alternative genetic models, epistasis and gene-environment interactions.

MODELING SPORADIC TUMOR FORMATION DRIVEN BY TELOMERE DYSFUNCTION IN THE GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT

Colorectal cancer is a complex disease that is thought to arise when cells accumulate mutations that allow for uncontrolled growth. There are several recognized mechanisms for generating such mutations in sporadic colon cancer; one of which is chromosomal instability (CIN). One hypothesized driver of CIN in cancer is the improper repair of dysfunctional telomeres. Telomeres comprise the linear ends of chromosomes and play a dual role in cancer. Its length is maintained by the ribonucleoprotein, telomerase, which is not a normally expressed in somatic cells and as cells divide, telomeres continuously shorten. Critically shortened telomeres are considered dysfunctional as they are recognized as sites of DNA damage and cells respond by entering into replicative senescence or apoptosis, a process that is p53-dependent and the mechanism for telomere-induced tumor suppression. Loss of this checkpoint and improper repair of dysfunctional telomeres can initiate a cycle of fusion, bridge and breakage that can lead to chromosomal changes and genomic instability, a process that can lead to transformation of normal cells to cancer cells. Mouse models of telomere dysfunction are currently based on knocking out the telomerase protein or RNA component; however, the naturally long telomeres of mice require multiple generational crosses of telomerase null mice to achieve critically short telomeres. Shelterin is a complex of six core proteins that bind to telomeres specifically. Pot1a is a highly conserved member of this complex that specifically binds to the telomeric single-stranded 3’ G-rich overhang. Previous work in our lab has shown that Pot1a is essential for chromosomal end protection as deletion of Pot1a in murine embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) leads to open telomere ends that initiate a DNA damage response mediated by ATR, resulting in p53-dependent cellular senescence. Loss of Pot1a in the background of p53 deficiency results in increased aberrant homologous recombination at telomeres and elevated genomic instability, which allows Pot1a-/-, p53-/- MEFs to form tumors when injected into SCID mice. These phenotypes are similar to those seen in cells with critically shortened telomeres. In this work, we created a mouse model of telomere ysfunction in the gastrointestinal tract through the conditional deletion of Pot1a that recapitulates the microscopic features seen in severe telomere attrition. Combined intestinal loss of Pot1a and p53 lead to formation of invasive adenocarcinomas in the small and large intestines. The tumors formed with long latency, low multiplicity and had complex genomes due to chromosomal instability, features similar to those seen in sporadic human colorectal cancers. Taken together, we have developed a novel mouse model of intestinal tumorigenesis based on genomic instability driven by telomere dysfunction.

Evaluation of candidate genes for susceptibility to spina bifida

Neural tube defects (NTDs) are the most common severely disabling birth defects in the United States, with a frequency of approximately 1–2 of every 1,000 births. This text includes the identification and evaluation of candidate susceptibility genes that confer risk for the development of neural tube defects (NTDs). The project focused on isolated meningomyelocele, also termed spina bifida (SB). ^ Spina bifida is a complex disease with multifactorial inheritance, therefore the subject population (consisting of North American Caucasians and Hispanics of Mexicali-American descent) was composed of 459 simplex SB families who were tested for genetic associations utilizing the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT), a nonparametric linkage technique. Three categories of candidate genes were studied, including (1) human equivalents of genes determined in mouse models to cause NTDs, (2) HOX and PAX genes, and (3) the MTHFR gene involved in the metabolic pathway of folate. ^ The C677T variant of the 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene was the first mutation in this gene to be implicated as a risk factor for NTDs. Our evaluation of the MTHFR gene provides evidence that maternal C677T homozygosity is a risk factor for upper level spina bifida defects in Hispanics [OR = 2.3, P = 0.02]. This observed risk factor is of great importance due to the high prevalence of this homozygous genotype in the Hispanic population. Additionally, maternal C677T/A1298C compound heterozygosity is a risk factor for upper level spina bifida defects in non-Hispanic whites [OR = 3.6, P = 0.03]. ^ For TDT analysis, our total population of 1128 subjects were genotyped for 54 markers from within and/or flanking the 20 candidate genes/gene regions of interest. Significant TDT findings were obtained for 3 of the 54 analyzed markers: d20s101 flanking the PAX1 gene (P = 0.019), d1s228 within the PAX7 gene (P = 0.011), and d2s110 within the PAX8 gene (P = 0.013). These results were followed-up by testing the genes directly for mutations utilizing single-strand conformational analysis (SSCA) and direct sequencing. Multiple variations were detected in each of these PAX genes; however, these variations were not passed from parent to child in phase with the positively transmitted alleles. Therefore, these variations do not contribute to the susceptibility of spina bifida, but rather are previously unreported single nucleotide polymorphisms. ^

Delineating the molecular basis of human genetic diseases: Epigenetic and functional studies

Identifying and characterizing the genes responsible for inherited human diseases will ultimately lead to a more holistic understanding of disease pathogenesis, catalyze new diagnostic and treatment modalities, and provide insights into basic biological processes. This dissertation presents research aimed at delineating the genetic and molecular basis of human diseases through epigenetic and functional studies and can be divided into two independent areas of research. The first area of research describes the development of two high-throughput melting curve based methods to assay DNA methylation, referred to as McMSP and McCOBRA. The goal of this project was to develop DNA methylation methods that can be used to rapidly determine the DNA methylation status at a specific locus in a large number of samples. McMSP and McCOBRA provide several advantages over existing methods, as they are simple, accurate, robust, and high-throughput making them applicable to large-scale DNA methylation studies. McMSP and McCOBRA were then used in an epigenetic study of the complex disease Ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Specifically, I tested the hypothesis that aberrant patterns of DNA methylation in five AS candidate genes contribute to disease susceptibility. While no statistically significant methylation differences were observed between cases and controls, this is the first study to investigate the hypothesis that epigenetic variation contributes to AS susceptibility and therefore provides the conceptual framework for future studies. ^ In the second area of research, I performed experiments to better delimit the function of aryl hydrocarbon receptor-interacting protein-like 1 (AIPL1), which when mutated causes various forms of inherited blindness such as Leber congenital amaurosis. A yeast two-hybrid screen was performed to identify putative AIPL1-interacting proteins. After screening 2 × 106 bovine retinal cDNA library clones, 6 unique putative AIPL1-interacting proteins were identified. While these 6 AIPL1 protein-protein interactions must be confirmed, their identification is an important step in understanding the functional role of AIPL1 within the retina and will provide insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying inherited blindness. ^

Candidate gene identification following linkage: Search for hypertension susceptibility genes

Following up genetic linkage studies to identify the underlying susceptibility gene(s) for complex disease traits is an arduous yet biologically and clinically important task. Complex traits, such as hypertension, are considered polygenic with many genes influencing risk, each with small effects. Chromosome 2 has been consistently identified as a genomic region with genetic linkage evidence suggesting that one or more loci contribute to blood pressure levels and hypertension status. Using combined positional candidate gene methods, the Family Blood Pressure Program has concentrated efforts in investigating this region of chromosome 2 in an effort to identify underlying candidate hypertension susceptibility gene(s). Initial informatics efforts identified the boundaries of the region and the known genes within it. A total of 82 polymorphic sites in eight positional candidate genes were genotyped in a large hypothesis-generating sample consisting of 1640 African Americans, 1339 whites, and 1616 Mexican Americans. To adjust for multiple comparisons, resampling-based false discovery adjustment was applied, extending traditional resampling methods to sibship samples. Following this adjustment for multiple comparisons, SLC4A5, a sodium bicarbonate transporter, was identified as a primary candidate gene for hypertension. Polymorphisms in SLC4A5 were subsequently genotyped and analyzed for validation in two populations of African Americans (N = 461; N = 778) and two of whites (N = 550; N = 967). Again, SNPs within SLC4A5 were significantly associated with blood pressure levels and hypertension status. While not identifying a single causal DNA sequence variation that is significantly associated with blood pressure levels and hypertension status across all samples, the results further implicate SLC4A5 as a candidate hypertension susceptibility gene, validating previous evidence for one or more genes on chromosome 2 that influence hypertension related phenotypes in the population-at-large. The methodology and results reported provide a case study of one approach for following up the results of genetic linkage analyses to identify genes influencing complex traits. ^

Expression study of the atherosclerosis mouse aorta reveals significant disturbance of calcium signaling pathway

Atherosclerosis is a complex disease resulting from interactions of genetic and environmental risk factors leading to heart failure and stroke. Using an atherosclerotic mouse model (ldlr-/-, apobec1-/- designated as LDb), we performed microarray analysis to identify candidate genes and pathways, which are most perturbed in changes in the following risk factors: genetics (control C57BL/6 vs. LDb mice), shearstress (lesion-prone vs. lesion-resistant regions in LDb mice), diet (chow vs. high fat fed LDb mice) and age (2-month-old vs. 8-month old LDb mice). ^ Atherosclerotic lesion quantification and lipid profile studies were performed to assess the disease phenotype. A microarray study was performed on lesion-prone and lesion-resistant regions of each aorta. Briefly, 32 male C57BL/6 and LDb mice (n =16/each) were fed on either chow or high fat diet, sacrificed at 2- and 8-months old, and RNA isolated from the aortic lesion-prone and aortic lesion-resistant segments. Using 64 Affymetrix Murine 430 2.0 chips, we profiled differentially expressed genes with the cut off value of FDR ≤ 0.15 for t-test, and q <0.0001 for the ANOVA. The data were normalized using two normalization methods---invariant probe sets (Loess) and Quantile normalization, the statistical analysis was performed using t-tests and ANOVA, and pathway characterization was done using Pathway Express (Wayne State). The result identified the calcium signaling pathway as the most significant overrepresented pathway, followed by focal adhesion. In the calcium signaling pathway, 56 genes were found to be significantly differentially expressed out of 180 genes listed in the KEGG calcium signaling pathway. Nineteen of these genes were consistently identified by both statistical tests, 11 of which were unique to the test, and 26 were unique to the ANOVA test, using the cutoffs noted above. ^ In conclusion, this finding suggested that hypercholesterolemia drives the disease progression by altering the expression of calcium channels and regulators which subsequently results in cell differentiation, growth, adhesion, cytoskeletal change and death. Clinically, this pathway may serve as an important target for future therapeutic intervention, and thus the calcium signaling pathway may serve as an important target for future diagnostic and therapeutic intervention. ^

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with TGF-beta pathway and their significance in systemic sclerosis - A multilevel analysis

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) or Scleroderma is a complex disease and its etiopathogenesis remains unelucidated. Fibrosis in multiple organs is a key feature of SSc and studies have shown that transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) pathway has a crucial role in fibrotic responses. For a complex disease such as SSc, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis is a powerful tool for identifying genetic variations that affect expression of genes involved in this disease. In this study, a multilevel model is described to perform a multivariate eQTL for identifying genetic variation (SNPs) specifically associated with the expression of three members of TGF-β pathway, CTGF, SPARC and COL3A1. The uniqueness of this model is that all three genes were included in one model, rather than one gene being examined at a time. A protein might contribute to multiple pathways and this approach allows the identification of important genetic variations linked to multiple genes belonging to the same pathway. In this study, 29 SNPs were identified and 16 of them located in known genes. Exploring the roles of these genes in TGF-β regulation will help elucidate the etiology of SSc, which will in turn help to better manage this complex disease. ^

Biomedical informatics applications for epilepsy management: A systematic review

Epilepsy is a very complex disease which can have a variety of etiologies, co-morbidities, and a long list of psychosocial factors4. Clinical management of epilepsy patients typically includes serological tests, EEG's, and imaging studies to determine the single best antiepileptic drug (AED). Self-management is a vital component of achieving optimal health when living with a chronic disease. For patients with epilepsy self-management includes any necessary actions to control seizures and cope with any subsequent effects of the condition9; including aspects of treatment, seizure, and lifestyle. The use of computer-based applications can allow for more effective use of clinic visits and ultimately enhance the patient-provider relationship through focused discussion of determinants affecting self-management. ^ The purpose of this study is to conduct a systematic literature review on informatics application in epilepsy self-management in an effort to describe current evidence for informatics applications and decision support as an adjunct to successful clinical management of epilepsy. Each publication was analyzed for the type of study design utilized. ^ A total of 68 publications were included and categorized by the study design used, development stage, and clinical domain. Descriptive study designs comprised of three-fourths of the publications and indicate an underwhelming use of prospective studies. The vast majority of prospective studies also focused on clinician use to increase knowledge in treating patients with epilepsy. ^ Due to the chronic nature of epilepsy and the difficulty that both clinicians and patients can experience in managing epilepsy, more prospective studies are needed to evaluate applications that can effectively increase management activities. Within the last two decades of epilepsy research, management studies have employed the use of biomedical informatics applications. While the use of computer applications to manage epilepsy has increased, more progress is needed.^

Thoracic aortic disease in tuberous sclerosis complex: molecular pathogenesis and potential therapies in Tsc2+/- mice.

Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a genetic disorder with pleiotropic manifestations caused by heterozygous mutations in either TSC1 or TSC2. One of the less investigated complications of TSC is the formation of aneurysms of the descending aorta, which are characterized on pathologic examination by smooth muscle cell (SMC) proliferation in the aortic media. SMCs were explanted from Tsc2(+/-) mice to investigate the pathogenesis of aortic aneurysms caused by TSC2 mutations. Tsc2(+/-) SMCs demonstrated increased phosphorylation of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR), S6 and p70S6K and increased proliferation rates compared with wild-type (WT) SMCs. Tsc2(+/-) SMCs also had reduced expression of SMC contractile proteins compared with WT SMCs. An inhibitor of mTOR signaling, rapamycin, decreased SMC proliferation and increased contractile protein expression in the Tsc2(+/-) SMCs to levels similar to WT SMCs. Exposure to alpha-elastin fragments also decreased proliferation of Tsc2(+/-) SMCs and increased levels of p27(kip1), but failed to increase expression of contractile proteins. In response to artery injury using a carotid artery ligation model, Tsc2(+/-) mice significantly increased neointima formation compared with the control mice, and the neointima formation was inhibited by treatment with rapamycin. These results demonstrate that Tsc2 haploinsufficiency in SMCs increases proliferation and decreases contractile protein expression and suggest that the increased proliferative potential of the mutant cells may be suppressed in vivo by interaction with elastin. These findings provide insights into the molecular pathogenesis of aortic disease in TSC patients and identify a potential therapeutic target for treatment of this complication of the disease.

Evaluation of Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease in women

Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) is a ubiquitous organism responsible for most pulmonary and disseminated disease caused by non-tuberculosis (NTM) mycobacteria. Though MAC lung disease without predisposing factors is uncommon, in recent years it has been increasingly described in middle-aged and elderly women. Recognition and correct diagnosis, is often delayed due to the indolent nature of the disease. It is unclear if these women have significant clinical disease as or if their airways are simply colonized by the bacterium. This study describes the clinical presentation, identifies risk factors, and describes the clinical significance of MAC lung disease in HIV-negative women aged 50 or greater. ^ A hybrid study design utilizing both cross-sectional and case-control methodologies was used. A comparison population was selected from previously identified tuberculosis suspects found throughout Harris County. The study population had at least one acid fast bacillus pulmonary culture performed between 1/1/1998 and 12/31/2000 from a pulmonary source. Clinical presentation and symptoms were analyzed using a cross-sectional design. Past medical history and other risk factors were evaluated using a traditional case-control study design. Differences in categorical variables were estimated with the Chi Square or Fisher's Exact test as appropriate. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were utilized to evaluate associations. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify predictive factors for MAC. All statistical tests were two-sided and P-values <0.05 were considered statistically significant. ^ Culture confirmed MAC pulmonary cases were more likely to be white, have bronchiectasis, scoliosis, evidence of cavitation and pleural changes on chest radiography and granulomas on histopathologic examination than women whose pulmonary cultures were AFB negative. After controlling for selected risk factors, white race continued to be significantly associated with MAC lung disease (OR = 4.6, 95% CI = 2.3, 9.2). In addition, asthma history, smoking history and alcohol use were less likely to be evident among MAC cases in a multivariate analysis. Right upper and right middle lobe disease was further noted among clinically significant cases. Based on population data, MAC lung disease appears to represent a significant clinical syndrome in HIV-negative women thus supporting the theory of the Lady Windermere Syndrome. ^

Mutations in the cofilin partner Aip1/Wdr1 cause autoinflammatory disease and macrothrombocytopenia.

A pivotal mediator of actin dynamics is the protein cofilin, which promotes filament severing and depolymerization, facilitating the breakdown of existing filaments, and the enhancement of filament growth from newly created barbed ends. It does so in concert with actin interacting protein 1 (Aip1), which serves to accelerate cofilin's activity. While progress has been made in understanding its biochemical functions, the physiologic processes the cofilin/Aip1 complex regulates, particularly in higher organisms, are yet to be determined. We have generated an allelic series for WD40 repeat protein 1 (Wdr1), the mammalian homolog of Aip1, and report that reductions in Wdr1 function produce a dramatic phenotype gradient. While severe loss of function at the Wdr1 locus causes embryonic lethality, macrothrombocytopenia and autoinflammatory disease develop in mice carrying hypomorphic alleles. Macrothrombocytopenia is the result of megakaryocyte maturation defects, which lead to a failure of normal platelet shedding. Autoinflammatory disease, which is bone marrow-derived yet nonlymphoid in origin, is characterized by a massive infiltration of neutrophils into inflammatory lesions. Cytoskeletal responses are impaired in Wdr1 mutant neutrophils. These studies establish an essential requirement for Wdr1 in megakaryocytes and neutrophils, indicating that cofilin-mediated actin dynamics are critically important to the development and function of both cell types.

CHARACTERIZING AND TREATING THE NEUROPATHOLOGY OF TUBEROUS SCLEROSIS COMPLEX IN THE MOUSE

Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a multisystem, autosomal dominant disorder affecting approximately 1 in 6000 births. Developmental brain abnormalities cause substantial morbidity and mortality and often lead to neurological disease including epilepsy, cognitive disabilities, and autism. TSC is caused by inactivating mutations in either TSC1 or TSC2, whose protein products are known inhibitors of mTORC1, an important kinase regulating translation and cell growth. Nonetheless, neither the pathophysiology of the neurological manifestations of TSC nor the extent of mTORC1 involvement in the development of these lesions is known. Murine models would greatly advance the study of this debilitating disorder. This thesis will describe the generation and characterization of a novel brain-specific mouse model of TSC, Tsc2flox/ko;hGFAP-Cre. In this model, the Tsc2 gene has been removed from most neurons and glia of the cortex and hippocampus by targeted Cre-mediated deletion in radial glial neuroprogenitor cells. The Tsc2flox/ko;hGFAP-Cre mice fail to thrive beginning postnatal day 8 and die from seizures around 23 days. Further characterization of these mice demonstrated megalencephaly, enlarged neurons, abnormal neuronal migration, altered progenitor pools, hypomyelination, and an astrogliosis. The similarity of these defects to those of TSC patients establishes this mouse as an excellent model for the study of the neuropathology of TSC and testing novel therapies. We further describe the use of this mouse model to assess the therapeutic potential of the macrolide rapamycin, an inhibitor of mTORC1. We demonstrate that rapamycin administered from postnatal day 10 can extend the life of the mutant animals 5 fold. Since TSC is a neurodevelopmental disorder, we also assessed in utero and/or immediate postnatal treatment of the animals with rapamycin. Amazingly, combined in utero and postnatal rapamycin effected a histologic rescue that was almost indistinguishable from control animals, indicating that dysregulation of mTORC1 plays a large role in TSC neuropathology. In spite of the almost complete histologic rescue, behavioral studies demonstrated that combined treatment resulted in poorer learning and memory than postnatal treatment alone. Postnatally-treated animals behaved similarly to treated controls, suggesting that immediate human treatment in the newborn period might provide the most opportune developmental timepoint for rapamycin administration.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinsonism-dementia complex of Guam: Descriptive epidemiology, secular trends, and birth cohort effects on incidence, 1950--1989

This study describes the patterns of occurrence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and parkinsonism-dementia complex (PDC) of Guam during 1950-1989. Both ALS and PDC occur with high frequency among the indigenous Chamorro population, first recognized in the early 1950's. Reports in the early 1980's indicated that both ALS and PDC were disappearing, due to a purported reduction in exposure to harmful environmental factors as a result of the dramatic changes in lifestyle that took place after World War II. However, this study provides compelling evidence that ALS and PDC have not disappeared on Guam and that rates for both are higher during 1980-1989 than previously reported.^ The patterns of occurrence for both ALS and PDC overlap in most respects: (1) incidence and mortality are decreasing; (2) median age at onset is increasing; (3) males are at increased risk for developing disease; (4) risk is higher for those residing in the south compared to the non-south; and (5) age-specific incidence is decreasing over time except in the oldest age groups.^ Age-specific incidence of ALS and PDC, separately and together, is generally higher for cohorts born before 1920 than for those born after 1920. A significant birth cohort effect on the incidence of PDC for the 1906-1915 birth cohort was found, but not for ALS and for ALS and PDC together. Whether or not a cohort effect, period effect, or both are associated with incidence of ALS and PDC cannot be determined from the data currently available and will require additional follow-up of individuals born after 1920.^ The epidemiological data amassed over this 40-year period provide evidence that supports an environmental exposure model for disease occurrence as opposed to a simple genetic or infectious disease model. Whether neurodegenerative disease in this population occurs as a consequence of a single exposure or is explained by a multifactorial model such as a genetic predisposition with some environmental interaction is yet to be determined. However, descriptive studies such as this can provide clues concerning timing and location of potential adverse exposures but cannot determine etiology, underscoring the urgent need for analytic studies of ALS and PDC to further investigate existing etiologic hypotheses and to test new hypotheses. ^