SURVIVAL PREDICTION FOR BRAIN TUMOR PATIENTS USING GENE EXPRESSION DATA

Brain tumor is one of the most aggressive types of cancer in humans, with an estimated median survival time of 12 months and only 4% of the patients surviving more than 5 years after disease diagnosis. Until recently, brain tumor prognosis has been based only on clinical information such as tumor grade and patient age, but there are reports indicating that molecular profiling of gliomas can reveal subgroups of patients with distinct survival rates. We hypothesize that coupling molecular profiling of brain tumors with clinical information might improve predictions of patient survival time and, consequently, better guide future treatment decisions. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the general goal of this research is to build models for survival prediction of glioma patients using DNA molecular profiles (U133 Affymetrix gene expression microarrays) along with clinical information. First, a predictive Random Forest model is built for binary outcomes (i.e. short vs. long-term survival) and a small subset of genes whose expression values can be used to predict survival time is selected. Following, a new statistical methodology is developed for predicting time-to-death outcomes using Bayesian ensemble trees. Due to a large heterogeneity observed within prognostic classes obtained by the Random Forest model, prediction can be improved by relating time-to-death with gene expression profile directly. We propose a Bayesian ensemble model for survival prediction which is appropriate for high-dimensional data such as gene expression data. Our approach is based on the ensemble "sum-of-trees" model which is flexible to incorporate additive and interaction effects between genes. We specify a fully Bayesian hierarchical approach and illustrate our methodology for the CPH, Weibull, and AFT survival models. We overcome the lack of conjugacy using a latent variable formulation to model the covariate effects which decreases computation time for model fitting. Also, our proposed models provides a model-free way to select important predictive prognostic markers based on controlling false discovery rates. We compare the performance of our methods with baseline reference survival methods and apply our methodology to an unpublished data set of brain tumor survival times and gene expression data, selecting genes potentially related to the development of the disease under study. A closing discussion compares results obtained by Random Forest and Bayesian ensemble methods under the biological/clinical perspectives and highlights the statistical advantages and disadvantages of the new methodology in the context of DNA microarray data analysis.

Detailed analysis of sequence changes occurring during vlsE antigenic variation in the mouse model of Borrelia burgdorferi infection.

Lyme disease Borrelia can infect humans and animals for months to years, despite the presence of an active host immune response. The vls antigenic variation system, which expresses the surface-exposed lipoprotein VlsE, plays a major role in B. burgdorferi immune evasion. Gene conversion between vls silent cassettes and the vlsE expression site occurs at high frequency during mammalian infection, resulting in sequence variation in the VlsE product. In this study, we examined vlsE sequence variation in B. burgdorferi B31 during mouse infection by analyzing 1,399 clones isolated from bladder, heart, joint, ear, and skin tissues of mice infected for 4 to 365 days. The median number of codon changes increased progressively in C3H/HeN mice from 4 to 28 days post infection, and no clones retained the parental vlsE sequence at 28 days. In contrast, the decrease in the number of clones with the parental vlsE sequence and the increase in the number of sequence changes occurred more gradually in severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) mice. Clones containing a stop codon were isolated, indicating that continuous expression of full-length VlsE is not required for survival in vivo; also, these clones continued to undergo vlsE recombination. Analysis of clones with apparent single recombination events indicated that recombinations into vlsE are nonselective with regard to the silent cassette utilized, as well as the length and location of the recombination event. Sequence changes as small as one base pair were common. Fifteen percent of recovered vlsE variants contained "template-independent" sequence changes, which clustered in the variable regions of vlsE. We hypothesize that the increased frequency and complexity of vlsE sequence changes observed in clones recovered from immunocompetent mice (as compared with SCID mice) is due to rapid clearance of relatively invariant clones by variable region-specific anti-VlsE antibody responses.

Runaway and Throwaway Youth: Time for Policy Changes and Public Responsibility

The traditional American dream of owning a home, obtaining a college education, and working at a good, paying job is only that, a dream, for scores of homeless youth in America today. There is a growing street population of young people who have been thrown out of their homes by their caretakers or their families, and who face life-threatening situations each day. For these youth, the furthest thing in their lives is reaching the so-called “American Dream;” and their most immediate need is survival, simply living out the day in front of them. They have few options that lead to a decent and safe living environment. Their age, lack of work experience, and absence of a high school diploma make it most difficult to find a job. As a result, they turn to other means for survival; runaways and throwaways are most vulnerable to falling prey to the sex trade, selling drugs, or being lured into human trafficking, and some steal or panhandle. Street youth end up spending their nights in bus stations or finding a room in an abandoned building or an empty stairwell to sleep. Attempting to identify a specific number of homeless youth is difficult at best, but what is even more perplexing is our continued inability to effectively protect our children. We are left with a basic question framed by the fundamental tenets of justice: what is a community’s responsibility to its youth who, for whatever reason, end up living on the streets or in unsafe, abusive environments? The purpose of this paper is to briefly outline the characteristics of homeless youth, in particular differentiating between throwaways and runaways; explore the current federal response to homeless youth; and finally, address the nagging question that swirls around all children: can we aggressively aspire to be a community where every child is healthy and safe, and able to realize his or her fullest potential?

Detailed analysis of sequence changes occurring during vlsE antigenic variation in the mouse model of Borrelia burgdorferi infection.

Lyme disease Borrelia can infect humans and animals for months to years, despite the presence of an active host immune response. The vls antigenic variation system, which expresses the surface-exposed lipoprotein VlsE, plays a major role in B. burgdorferi immune evasion. Gene conversion between vls silent cassettes and the vlsE expression site occurs at high frequency during mammalian infection, resulting in sequence variation in the VlsE product. In this study, we examined vlsE sequence variation in B. burgdorferi B31 during mouse infection by analyzing 1,399 clones isolated from bladder, heart, joint, ear, and skin tissues of mice infected for 4 to 365 days. The median number of codon changes increased progressively in C3H/HeN mice from 4 to 28 days post infection, and no clones retained the parental vlsE sequence at 28 days. In contrast, the decrease in the number of clones with the parental vlsE sequence and the increase in the number of sequence changes occurred more gradually in severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) mice. Clones containing a stop codon were isolated, indicating that continuous expression of full-length VlsE is not required for survival in vivo; also, these clones continued to undergo vlsE recombination. Analysis of clones with apparent single recombination events indicated that recombinations into vlsE are nonselective with regard to the silent cassette utilized, as well as the length and location of the recombination event. Sequence changes as small as one base pair were common. Fifteen percent of recovered vlsE variants contained "template-independent" sequence changes, which clustered in the variable regions of vlsE. We hypothesize that the increased frequency and complexity of vlsE sequence changes observed in clones recovered from immunocompetent mice (as compared with SCID mice) is due to rapid clearance of relatively invariant clones by variable region-specific anti-VlsE antibody responses.

p75 receptor-mediated neurotrophism: A new mechanism of melanoma cell survival and invasion

Trophism as a "clonal dominance" support mechanism for tumor cells is an unexplored area of tumor progression. This report presents evidence that the human melanoma low-affinity neurotrophin receptor (p75) can signal independently of its high-affinity tyrosine kinase counterparts, the TRK family of kinases. Signaling may be accomplished by a p75-associated purine-analog-sensitive kinase and results in enhanced invasion into a reconstituted basement membrane with a corresponding stimulation of matrix metalloproteinase-2 expression. Additionally, a "stress culture" survival assay was developed to mimic the growth limiting conditions encountered by melanoma cells in a rapidly growing primary tumor or metastatic deposit prior to neoangiogenesis. Under these conditions, p75, promotes the survival of high p75 expressing brain-colonizing melanoma cells. Extensive 70W melanoma cell-cell contact, which downregulates p75, immediately precedes the induction of cell death associated with diminished production of two key cell survival factors, bcl-2 and the p85 subunit of phosphoinositol-3-kinase, and an elevation in apoptosis promoting intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROSs). Since one function of bcl-2 may be to control the generation of ROSs via the antioxidant pathway, these cells may receive a apoptosis-prompting "double hit". 70W melanoma cell death occurred by an apoptotic mechanism displaying classical morphological changes including plasma membrane blebbing, loss of microvilli and redistribution of ribosomes. 70W apoptosis could be pharmacologically triggered following anti-p75 monoclonal antibody-mediated clustering of p75 receptors. 70W cells fluorescently sorted for high-p75 expression (p75$\sp{\rm H}$ cells) exhibited an augmented survival potential and a predilection to sort with the S + G2/M growth phase, relative to their low p75 expressing, p75$\sp{\rm L}$ counterparts. Apoptosis is significantly delayed by p75$\sp{\rm H}$ cells, whereas p75$\sp{\rm L}$ cells are exquisitely prone to initiate apoptosis. Importantly, the p75$\sp{\rm L}$ cells that survive apoptosis, highly re-expressed p75 and were remarkably responsive to exogenous NGF.^ These are the first data to implicate p75-mediated neurotrophism as an invasion and survival support mechanism employed by brain-metastatic cells. In particular, these results may have implications in little understood phenomena of tumor progression, such as the emergence of "clonal dominance" and tumor dormancy. ^

The impact of functional impairment on the survival of patients with Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD), the most common form of dementia, is the fifth leading cause of death among U.S. adults aged 65 or older. Most AD patients have shorter life expectancy compared with older people without dementia. This disease has become an enormous challenge in the aging society and is also a global problem. Not only do families of patients with Alzheimer's disease need to pay attention to this problem, but also the healthcare system and society as a whole have to confront. In dementia, functional impairment is associated with basic activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). For patients with Alzheimer's disease, problems typically appear in performing IADL and progress to the inability of managing less complex ADL functions of personal care. Thus, assessment of ADLs can be used for early accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. It should be useful for patients, caregivers, clinicians, and policy planners to estimate the survival of patients with Alzheimer's disease. However, it is unclear that when making predictions of patient outcome according to their histories, time-dependent covariates will provide us with important information on how changes in a patient's status can effect the survival. In this study, we examined the effect of impaired basic ADL as measured by the Physical Self-Maintenance Scale (PSMS) and utilized a multistate survival analysis approach to estimate the probability of death in the first few years of initial visit for AD patients taking into consideration the possibility of impaired basic ADL. The dataset used in this study was obtained from the Baylor Alzheimer's Disease and Memory Disorders Center (ADMDC). No impaired basic ADL and older age at onset of impaired basic ADL were associated with longer survival. These findings suggest that the occurrence of impaired basic ADL and age at impaired basic ADL could be predictors of survival among patients with Alzheimer's disease. ^

Is family medicine meeting the HIV/AIDS challenge? A national survey of family physicians' beliefs, clinical competence, and experience regarding HIV disease

A national sample of family physicians was surveyed to (1) assess family physicians' beliefs about the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and individuals at risk for infection, their clinical competence regarding HIV-related issues, and their experiences with HIV disease; (2) present conclusions to the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP) to effect the development of an early clinical care protocol and a continuing medical education curriculum; and (3) collect base-line data for use in the evaluation of an early clinical care protocol and a continuing medical education curriculum, in the case that such programs are developed and disseminated. After considering retired or deceased respondents, of the 2,660 physicians surveyed, 1,678 (63.7%) responded. The resulting sample was representative of the active members of the AAFP. About 77% of the respondents were unable to accurately identify the universal precautions for blood and body fluids to prevent occupational transmission of HIV or hepatitis B virus (HBV). Residency trained and board certified physicians expressed fewer "external constraints," such as fear of losing patients, obviating them from providing treatment to individuals with HIV disease (p =.004 and p $<$.001, respectively). These physicians also manifested fewer "internal constraints" to the provision of HIV treatment, such as fear of becoming infected (p $<$.001 and p =.012, respectively). Residency trained physicians also expressed a greater comfort with discussing sexually-related topics with their patients than did non-residency trained physicians (p $<$.001). There were 67.1% of the physicians surveyed who reported never providing treatment to an individual with HIV disease. Residency trained and board certified physicians expressed a greater likelihood to provide treatment to HIV-infected patients (p $<$.001) than non-residency trained and non-board certified physicians.^ Among the various primary care specialties, family medicine is especially vulnerable to the current challenges of HIV/AIDS. These challenges are augmented by the epidemiologic pattern that characterizes AIDS. For the past several years, we have seen AIDS in this country assume a similar pattern to that seen in most other countries; HIV is becoming increasingly prevalent in the heterosexual population as well as in locations removed from metropolitan centers. This current phase of the epidemic generates greater pressures upon primary care physicians, particularly family physicians, to become better acquainted with the means to provide early care to HIV/AIDS patients and to prevent HIV/AIDS among their patients. Family medicine is especially appropriate for providing care to HIV patients because family medicine involves treatment to all age groups and conditions; other primary care specialties focus on limited patient populations or specific conditions. Family physicians should be armed with the expertise to confront HIV/AIDS. However, family physicians' clinical competence and experience with HIV is not known. The data collected in this survey describes their competencies, attitudes, and experiences. ^

Factors associated with HPV16 status and survival among patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx

Background: Squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx (SCCOP) is characterized by local tumor aggressiveness, high recurrence rates, a high incidence of second primary tumors, and medical comorbidities. Significant trends in demographic and clinical characteristics as well as survival among SCCOP patients have been observed over time, likely owing to the changing etiology of the disease. Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) infection is associated with a significant proportion of these cancers. Biomarkers that may aid in identifying patients that are at higher risk of recurrence and death are important so that these patients may be followed more closely to improve their quality of life. ^ Study population and methods: The retrospective review (Specific Aim 2) included 3891 newly diagnosed, previously untreated patients presenting to our institution between 1955 and 2004. A total of 2299 patients treated at our institution were included in survival and recursive partitioning analysis. The prospective cohort study (Specific Aim 3) included 266 patients presenting to our institution between January 2006 and September 2009. ^ Results: The results from the retrospective review showed that over time, patients presented at younger ages and were more likely to have base of tongue/tonsil tumors and to be never/former smokers and moreover survival improved significantly over time. In survival and recursive partitioning analyses, the TNM staging system was efficient in prognosticating patients prior to 1995. However, in the recent decade, the TNM staging system was completely inadequate. The factors having the greatest positive effect on overall survival since 1995 were those common to HPV-associated SCCOP. The results from the prospective cohort study indicate that patients with high nodal stage and those with late stage disease have increased levels of pretreatment serum HPV DNA. ^ Conclusions: We saw a distinct improvement in survival among SCCOP patients over the past 50 years at our institution. The main factors contributing to this were changes in clinical characteristics, in particular surrogates for HPV status. The current TNM staging system for SCCOP is inadequate and incorporation of HPV status (and perhaps smoking status) is encouraged. Furthermore, although pretreatment circulating levels of HPV DNA was associated with higher N category and overall disease stage, it has limited utility as a marker for recurrence among SCCOP patients.^

Targeting Special Populations for Family Preservation: The Influence of Worker Competence and Organizational Culture

Today there are approximately 581,000 children in the United States foster care system. Children of color, one special population group, are disproportionately represented in the foster care system. Family preservation, a program that aims to improve family functioning and thus decrease the need for foster care, has been examined closely. Some researchers believe that family preservation programs have failed partly due to practitioners' inability to target appropriate families (Feldman, 1990; Schuerman, Rzepnicki & Littell, 1994). Additionally, research confirms that children of color are not the target of family preservation services (Denby, Curtis, & Alford, 1998). Improvements in the effectiveness of family preservation will require many types of reform both internal and external to the program. Among the types of internal reform needed is accurate "targeting of services. " Given the overrepresentation of children of color in the foster care system, this group must be among those who are targeted for services. The results of a national survey of 254 family preservation workers reveal a "profile" of the worker who is likely to target special populations, including children of color, for family preservation services. A case is made for service improvements and training to facilitate the "profiled" workers' competencies.