POLYCHOTOMOUS LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS (HYPERTENSION, CORONARY HEART DISEASE)

The history of the logistic function since its introduction in 1838 is reviewed, and the logistic model for a polychotomous response variable is presented with a discussion of the assumptions involved in its derivation and use. Following this, the maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters are derived along with a Newton-Raphson iterative procedure for evaluation. A rigorous mathematical derivation of the limiting distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators is then presented using a characteristic function approach. An appendix with theorems on the asymptotic normality of sample sums when the observations are not identically distributed, with proofs, supports the presentation on asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, two applications of the model are presented using data from the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program, a prospective, population-based, randomized trial of treatment for hypertension. The first application compares the risk of five-year mortality from cardiovascular causes with that from noncardiovascular causes; the second application compares risk factors for fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease with those for fatal or nonfatal stroke. ^

A screening for anti-West Nile immunoglobulin-G and immunoglobulin-M in the Cameron County Hispanic cohort

This study is designed to be a cross-sectional, retrospective analysis of the seroprevalence of anti-WNV antibodies in 1,006 plasma samples collected from February 2, 2006 to June 18, 2007 originally for The Cameron County Hispanic Cohort: Extreme obesity and uncontrolled diabetes on the U.S.-Mexico border, major concerns for populations with health disparities. The aim of this thesis research is to give a more up-to-date picture of Flavivirus activity in south Texas, which can potentially contribute to the surveillance objective of arboviral control in this area. A West Nile virus (WNV) seroprevalence study in humans in this particular area has never before been completed. Plasma samples were tested using immunoglobulin-G (IgG) and immunoglobulin-M (IgM) WNV enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Estimated seroprevalence for this particular population was 0.98% or 9.8 cases of West Nile disease per 1,000 citizens. After IgG testing, seroprevalence in the study population was found to be 15.4%. Specimens tested for WNV IgG were compared with a subset of specimens (N=803) tested for history of primary dengue virus (DENV) infection. Of the 803 specimens tested for IgG to DENV, 308 were positive. Of the 132 positive WNV IgG specimens in the subset, 131 (99.2%) tested also tested positive for DENV IgG. It would be helpful to use standard plaque reduction neutralization testing to determine if the seroprevalence is in fact lower because of cross-reaction to DENV on testing. Regardless of the possibility of other Flavivirus activity occurring prior to the introduction of WNV into the United States and the potential for cross-reactivity, Texas has ranked in the top 5 states with the highest, laboratory confirmed incidence of infection with WNV since 2003. Indicating that climate factors and the presence of suitable vectors makes Texas a hotspot for WNV activity. ^ A description of the study population by age, gender, and income was done indicating a statistically significant income difference with a mean household income per year being $13,413.55 for a case and $20,268.80 for non-cases (p=0.001). Lower income neighborhoods should be targeted for education and prevention of vector-borne diseases during the summer months in Cameron County. With respect to gender, being male has been noted in the literature to be a risk factor for infection with WNV (25). In this study, females comprised approximately 68% of the study population, they also made up 66.5% of the positive IgG specimens. An odds ratio of 0.91 indicates that women are less likely to be IgG positive for WNV as compared to men; however, this was not found to be significant based on the 95% confidence interval, but is consistent with the literature. When looking at age difference between positive and negative/equivocal cases, there was no statistical difference found between the two groups. ^ We concluded that this study will enable us to understand the epidemiology of WNV transmission since its introduction into the United States and hopefully to maintain or improve the current measures we have in place to prevent infections that are seen annually with WNV.^

The relationship of obesity and cardiovascular disease

Aim. To review published literature on the relationship of obesity and cardiovascular disease.^ Methods. To look at all the studies published on the topic from 2005.^ Results. In the studies done prior to 2011, body mass index and in particular waist to hip ratio (51.57) was found to be associated with coronary heart disease. But, this relationship was challenged by the latest Lancet 2011meta-analysis 1 which concluded that singly or in combination, body-mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio did not importantly improve prediction of first-onset cardiovascular disease when additional information exists on blood pressure, history of diabetes, and cholesterol measures were available. Furthermore, they also found long-term reproducibility of BMI to be superior to that of waist-to-hip ratio (or waist circumference). Interestingly, body mass index in later childhood and early adult life showed positive association with coronary heart disease later in life 2. In US female health professionals 3 increasing body mass index was found to be associated with increased coronary heart disease risk. Overall 4, physical activity was found to be independently associated with fewer risk factors, less coronary artery disease, and fewer adverse events in women. Finally, obesity was found to be associated with increased overall cardiovascular mortality and coronary heart disease mortality 5.^ Conclusions. There is insufficient data to draw guidelines regarding parameters of obesity affecting cardiovascular disease. But there is data to support that lower body mass index would lead to decreased cardiovascular disease mortality. And physical activity has a direct association with less coronary artery disease in women.^