Distribution of quality adjusted life expectancy: A systems approach

Statistical methods are developed which assess survival data for two attributes; (1) prolongation of life, (2) quality of life. Health state transition probabilities correspond to prolongation of life and are modeled as a discrete-time semi-Markov process. Imbedded within the sojourn time of a particular health state are the quality of life transitions. They reflect events which differentiate perceptions of pain and suffering over a fixed time period. Quality of life transition probabilities are derived from the assumptions of a simple Markov process. These probabilities depend on the health state currently occupied and the next health state to which a transition is made. Utilizing the two forms of attributes the model has the capability to estimate the distribution of expected quality adjusted life years (in addition to the distribution of expected survival times). The expected quality of life can also be estimated within the health state sojourn time making more flexible the assessment of utility preferences. The methods are demonstrated on a subset of follow-up data from the Beta Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This model contains the structure necessary to make inferences when assessing a general survival problem with a two dimensional outcome. ^

The chronobiology of the menstrual life sequence of American women

Seasonal variation in menarche, menstrual cycle length and menopause was investigated using Tremin Trust data. Too, self-reported hot flash data for women with natural and surgically-induced menopause were analyzed for rhythms.^ Menarche data from approximately 600 U.S. women born between 1940 and 1970 revealed a 6-month rhythm (first acrophase in January, double amplitude of 58%M). A notable shift from a December-January peak in menarche for those born in the 1940s and 1950s to an August-September peak for those born in the 1960s was observed. Groups of girls 8-14 and 15-17 yr old at menarche exhibited a seasonal difference in the pattern of menarche occurrence of about 6 months in relation to each other. Girls experiencing menarche during August-October were statistically significantly younger than those experiencing it at other times. Season of birth was not associated with season of menarche.^ The lengths of approximately 150,000 menstrual intervals of U.S. women were analyzed for seasonality. Menstrual intervals possibly disturbed by natural (e.g., childbirth) or other events (e.g., surgery, medication) were excluded. No 6- or 12-month rhythmicities were found for specific interval lengths (14-24, 25-31 and 32-56 days) or ages in relation to menstrual interval (9-11, 12-13, 15-19, 20-24, 25-39, 40-44 and 44 yr old and older).^ Hot flash data of 14 women experiencing natural menopause (NM) and 11 experiencing surgically-induced menopause (SIM) did not differ in frequency of hot flashes. Hot flashes in NM women exhibited 12- and 8-hr, but not 24-hr rhythmicities. Hot flashes in SIM women exhibited 24- and 12-hr, but not 8-hr, rhythmicities. Regardless of type of menopause, women with a peak frequency in hot flashes during the morning (0400 through 0950) were distinguishable from those with such in the evening (1600 through 2159).^ Data from approximately 200 U.S. women revealed a 6-month rhythm in menopause with first peak in May. No significant 12-month variation in menopause was detected by Cosinor analysis. Season of birth and age at menopause were not associated with season of menopause. Age at menopause declined significantly over the years for women born between 1907 and 1926, inclusive. ^