A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

Disparities in medical expenditure and utilization among hypertensive men and women in the U.S.: Cross-section and lifetime analysis

Objectives. To investigate procedural gender equity by assessing predisposing, enabling and need predictors of gender differences in annual medical expenditures and utilization among hypertensive individuals in the U.S. Also, to estimate and compare lifetime medical expenditures among hypertensive men and women in the U.S. ^ Data source. 2001-2004 the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS);1986-2000 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and National Health Interview Survey linked to mortality in the National Death Index through 2002 (2002 NHIS-NDI). ^ Study design. We estimated total medical expenditure using four equations regression model, specific medical expenditures using two equations regression model and utilization using negative binomial regression model. Procedural equity was assessed by applying the Aday et al. theoretical framework. Expenditures were estimated in 2004 dollars. We estimated hypertension-attributable medical expenditure and utilization among men and women. ^ To estimate lifetime expenditures from ages 20 to 85+, we estimated medical expenditures with cross-sectional data and survival with prospective data. The four equations regression model were used to estimate average annual medical expenditures defined as sum of inpatient stay, emergency room visits, outpatient visits, office based visits, and prescription drugs expenditures. Life tables were used to estimate the distribution of life time medical expenditures for hypertensive men and women at different age and factors such as disease incidence, medical technology and health care cost were assumed to be fixed. Both total and hypertension attributable expenditures among men and women were estimated. ^ Data collection. We used the 2001-2004 MEPS household component and medical condition files; the NHIS person and condition files from 1986-1996 and 1997-2000 sample adult files were used; and the 1986-2000 NHIS that were linked to mortality in the 2002 NHIS-NDI. ^ Principal findings. Hypertensive men had significantly less utilization for most measures after controlling predisposing, enabling and need factors than hypertensive women. Similarly, hypertensive men had less prescription drug (-9.3%), office based (-7.2%) and total medical (-4.5%) expenditures than hypertensive women. However, men had more hypertension-attributable medical expenditures and utilization than women. ^ Expected total lifetime expenditure for average life table individuals at age 20, was $188,300 for hypertensive men and $254,910 for hypertensive women. But the lifetime expenditure that could be attributed to hypertension was $88,033 for men and $40,960 for women. ^ Conclusion. Hypertensive women had more utilization and expenditure for most measures than hypertensive men, possibly indicating procedural inequity. However, relatively higher hypertension-attributable health care of men shows more utilization of resources to treat hypertension related diseases among men than women. Similar results were reported in lifetime analyses.^ Key words: gender, medical expenditures, utilization, hypertension-attributable, lifetime expenditure ^

Trends in utilization of computer tomography (CT) scans for victims of motor vehicle collision (MVCs) in a level I trauma center from 1996 to 2006

Purpose. To evaluate trends in the utilization of head, abdominal, thoracic and other body regions CTs in the management of victims of MVC at a level I trauma center from 1996 to 2006.^ Method. From the trauma registry, I identified patients involved in MVC's in a level I trauma center and categorized them into three age groups of 13-18, 19-55 and ≥56. I used International Classification of Disease (ICD-9-CM) codes to find the type and number of CTs examinations performed for each patient. I plotted the mean number of CTs per patient against year of admission to find the crude estimate of change in utilization pattern for each type of CT. I used logistic regression to assess whether repetitive CTs (≥ 2) for head, abdomen, thorax and other body regions were associated with age group and year of admission for MVC patients. I adjusted the estimates for gender, ethnicity, insurance status, mechanism and severity of injury, intensive care unit admission status, patient disposition (dead or alive) and year of admission.^ Results. Utilization of head, abdominal, thoracic and other body regions CTs significantly increased over 11-year period. Utilization of head CT was greatest in the 13-18 age group, and increased from 0.58 CT/patient in 1996 to 1.37 CT/patient in 2006. Abdominal CTs were more common in the ≥56+ age group, and increased from 0.33 CT/patient in 1996 to 0.72 CT/patient in 2006. Utilization of thoracic CTs was higher in the 56+ age group, and increased from 0.01 CT/patient in 1996 to 0.42 CT/patient in 2006. Utilization of other CTs did not change materially during the study period for adolescents, adults or older adults. In the multivariable analysis, after adjustment for potential confounders, repetitive head CTs significantly increased in the 13-18 age group (95% CI: 1.29-1.87, p=<0.001) relative to the 19-55 age group. Repetitive thoracic CT use was lower in adolescents (95% CI: 0.22-0.70, p=<0.001) relative to the 19-55 age group.^ Conclusion. There has been a substantial increase in the utilization of head, abdominal, thoracic and other CTs in the management of MVC patients. Future studies need to identify if increased utilization of CTs have resulted in better health outcome for these patients. ^

A study of the determinants of the utilization of preventive health care service among Chicanos

This study examines the individual and health care system determinants of two types of preventive health care practice behaviors, having a routine physical exam or a preventive dental exam, in the past year among Chicanos in the Southwestern United States. The study utilizes the Health System Model, developed by Aday and Andersen in 1974, to analyze the relative effect of education, income and occupation on the use of discretionary health care, controlling for other individual and health care system determinants.^ The study is based on a sample of 4,111 Mexican origin adults, drawn from the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HHANES). This sample is representative of Mexican American residing in the Southwestern United States.^ The study tests the hypothesis that education is the most important social class predictor of preventive health care practice behavior. The fully elaborated model tests the hypothesis that individual determinants alone are insufficient to explain the use of preventive health care services among Chicanos.^ The study found that education and income are statistically significant social class indicators only as it relates to having a preventive dental exam. Education is not the most important social class predictor of either preventive health care practice behavior. Health care system determinants are key predictors of both behaviors. Need, as measured by self-perceived health status of teeth and gender, is as important a determinant as having dental insurance coverage as it relates to having a preventive dental exam. Implications for health programs to effectively reach Chicano target groups and remove access barriers to their use of discretionary health care services are discussed. ^

UTILIZATION OF EVALUATION RESULTS

The issue over utilization of evaluation results has been receiving increasing attention lately. However, a continuing problem has been the lack of knowledge of the specific determinants of the utilization of evaluation results, the extent that these results are used, and the absence in the literature of empirical investigations of those determinants. The purposes of the current study were to examine the patterns of utilization of the recommendations made to an organization following an extensive evaluation, and to quantitatively examine some determinants of that utilization. During the course of the ten-month study, a number of important points regarding evaluation studies, and the utilization of their results were identified. Primary among these was the fact that a definition of utilization that requires adoption of recommendations is limited. Tremendous amounts of organizational activity may accrue from the results of an evaluation regardless of whether the results are adopted. In addition, none of the characteristics of the recommendations that were examined proved to be significant predictors of the extent of their utilization other than whether adoption was considered an authority decision or the results of staff concensus. ^

Funding the utilization of community health workers in Texas

Community health workers (CHWs) are volunteers or paid members of communities that perform outreach, patient assistance, health education, and assist in navigation of healthcare system amongst other duties. The utilization of CHWs in hospital and community setting provides health benefits to their communities while reducing cost to the overall healthcare system. ^ The general population of Texas lacks adequate access to primary care. An important indicator of such a crisis is excessive usage of emergency department services in Texas, especially by the large minority population within the state. Also, unmanaged chronic diseases have been shown to be correlated with the excessive usage of emergency services. According to a recent survey of 25 Houston metropolitan area hospitals, almost 54% of the ER visits could have been resolved in primary care settings. A Galveston based study also indicated that the ER usage was higher amongst African-Americans and Latinos. Meanwhile, 28.5% of the total ER visits were made by Latinos from the surrounding areas (Begley et al., 2007). There is substantial evidence present which indicates enormous cost-savings that CHWs have produced in Texas and nationwide through reduction in unnecessary ER visits along with better management of chronic diseases (Fedder et al, 2003). ^ This paper provides an analysis regarding the need and importance for sustainable and stable sources of funding for Community health workers (CHWs) in Texas utilizing Kingdon's model of Agenda Setting as framework. The policy analysis is also aimed at reporting on the policy process and actions taken by Children at Risk to address this critical issue. Children at Risk, a Houston based advocacy organization, has created a legislative proposal that calls on the Texas Health and Human Commission to apply for a Medicaid §§1115 waiver to provide sustainable sources of funding for CHWs, Rep. John Zerwas sponsored HB 2244 bill and it was filed on March 3, 2011. The bill would affect the use of CHWs in Texas in two ways: 1) through the establishment and operation of a program designed to train and educate CHWs 2) by creating a statewide training and certification advisory committee. The advisory committee is required in the bill to submit recommendations for providing sustainable funding and employment for CHWs. The HB 2244 failed to move out of the House Public Health committee. However, HB2244 was amended into HB 2610 introduced by Representative Guillen. The House Bill 2610 is geared towards establishing a community-based navigator program in order to assist individuals applying for public assistance through the Internet. The House Bill 2610 was signed by the Governor and will be effective September 1, 2011.^

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Utilization of BRCA Testing Among Obstetricians and Gynecologists

Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) is an inherited cancer syndrome that is associated with mutations in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Carriers of BRCA mutations, both men and women, are at an increased risk for developing certain cancers. Carriers are most notably at an increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancers; however an increased risk for prostate cancer, melanoma, and pancreatic cancers has also been associated with these mutations. In 2009 the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) released a practice bulletin stating that evaluating a patient’s risk for HBOC should be a routine part of obstetric and gynecologic practice. A survey was created and completed by 83 obstetricians and gynecologists in the greater Houston, TX area. The survey consisted of four sections designed to capture demographic information, attitudes towards HBOC and BRCA testing, utilization of BRCA testing, and the overall knowledge of respondents with regards to HBOC and BRCA testing. This study found that the majority of participants indicated that they felt that obstetricians and gynecologists should have the primary responsibility of identifying patients who may be at increased risk of carrying a BRCA mutation. Moreover, this study found that the majority of participants indicated that they felt comfortable or very comfortable in identifying patients at an increased risk of carrying a BRCA mutation. However, only about a quarter of participants indicated that they order BRCA genetic testing one to two times per month or more. Lastly, this study demonstrates that the overall knowledge of HBOC and BRCA testing among this population of obstetricians and gynecologists is poor. The results of this study stress the need for more education regarding HBOC, genetic testing, and strategies for identifying patients that may be at risk for having a mutation in a BRCA gene. Furthermore, it reiterates the importance of raising awareness to current practice guidelines and recommendations that can assist obstetricians and gynecologist to better identify and manage patients that may be at an increased risk of having HBOC.

ATTITUDES TOWARD AND UTILIZATION OF NON-INVASIVE PRENATAL TESTING FOR CHROMOSOME ANEUPLOIDY AMONG OB/GYNS

Prenatal diagnosis is traditionally made via invasive procedures such as amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling (CVS). However, both procedures carry a risk of complications, including miscarriage. Many groups have spent years searching for a way to diagnose a chromosome aneuploidy without putting the fetus or the mother at risk for complications. Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for chromosome aneuploidy became commercially available in the fall of 2011, with detection rates similar to those of invasive procedures for the common autosomal aneuploidies (Palomaki et al., 2011; Ashoor et al. 2012; Bianchi et al. 2012). Eventually NIPT may become the diagnostic standard of care and reduce invasive procedure-related losses (Palomaki et al., 2011). The integration of NIPT into clinical practice has potential to revolutionize prenatal diagnosis; however, it also raises some crucial issues for practitioners. Now that the test is clinically available, no studies have looked at the physicians that will be ordering the testing or referring patients to practitioners who do. This study aimed to evaluate the attitudes of OB/GYN’s and how they are incorporating the test into clinical practice. Our study shows that most physicians are offering this new, non-invasive technology to their patients, and that their practices were congruent with the literature and available professional society opinions. Those physicians who do not offer NIPT to their patients would like more literature on the topic as well as instructive guidelines from their professional societies. Additionally, this study shows that the practices and attitudes of MFMs and OBs differ. Our population feels that the incorporation of NIPT will change their practices by lowering the amount of invasive procedures, possibly replacing maternal serum screening, and that it will simplify prenatal diagnosis. However, those physicians who do not offer NIPT to their patients are not quite sure how the test will affect their clinical practice. From this study we are able to glean how physicians are incorporating this new technology into their practice and how they feel about the addition to their repertoire of tests. This knowledge gives insight as to how to best move forward with the quickly changing field of prenatal diagnosis.

Attitudes and other barriers to the utilization of clinical research findings by American physicians: A systematic review

Background: The Institute of Medicine estimates that only a maximum of 25% of clinical research findings are incorporated into practice by physicians. To improve clinical practice, efforts have been made to promote evidence-based medicine and the use of clinical guidelines. Despite these efforts, the gap between research and clinical practice remains wide.^ Objective: To systematically review the literature describing the factors which influence the use of clinical research recommendations by American physicians.^ Hypothesis: Barriers exist in the application of clinical research into clinical practice, and are multifactorial. The establishment of the Clinical and Translational Awards (CTSA; special federal grants awarded to selected institutions to support clinical and translational research) has reduced the effect of these barriers and improved the process of clinical research translation into practice among American physicians.^ Aims: Identify barriers and facilitators of the use of research findings in clinical practice by American physicians. Contrast studies published six years before and after the creation of the CTSA.^ Methods: The sources of data include published literature from Medline, PubMed and PsycINFO. Selected studies must be qualitative, a survey of American clinicians, based on evidence-based medicine practice, clinical guidelines or treatment pathways. Systematic reviews and reports were excluded, as well as studies with less than 100 respondents.^ Results: In total, 1036 abstracts were reviewed; 115 full text potential articles were identified and reviewed, and a total of 31 studies met all criteria for inclusion in the final review.^ Conclusions: The barriers against the application of clinical research findings, in the forms of clinical guidelines, evidence-based medicine guides and clinical pathways, can be divided broadly into physician barriers, practice/system barriers and patient barriers. Physician barriers are the most common barriers, especially the lack of familiarity with guidelines and the lack of time. Of the factors which improve the use of research based guidelines, physician factors such as younger age, lower duration of clinical practice, specialty training, and practice in large group Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) settings with fewer patients seen were the most commonly cited.^

Patient classification system: An integrated method for measuring nursing intensity and optimizing resource allocation

A patient classification system was developed integrating a patient acuity instrument with a computerized nursing distribution method based on a linear programming model. The system was designed for real-time measurement of patient acuity (workload) and allocation of nursing personnel to optimize the utilization of resources.^ The acuity instrument was a prototype tool with eight categories of patients defined by patient severity and nursing intensity parameters. From this tool, the demand for nursing care was defined in patient points with one point equal to one hour of RN time. Validity and reliability of the instrument was determined as follows: (1) Content validity by a panel of expert nurses; (2) predictive validity through a paired t-test analysis of preshift and postshift categorization of patients; (3) initial reliability by a one month pilot of the instrument in a practice setting; and (4) interrater reliability by the Kappa statistic.^ The nursing distribution system was a linear programming model using a branch and bound technique for obtaining integer solutions. The objective function was to minimize the total number of nursing personnel used by optimally assigning the staff to meet the acuity needs of the units. A penalty weight was used as a coefficient of the objective function variables to define priorities for allocation of staff.^ The demand constraints were requirements to meet the total acuity points needed for each unit and to have a minimum number of RNs on each unit. Supply constraints were: (1) total availability of each type of staff and the value of that staff member (value was determined relative to that type of staff's ability to perform the job function of an RN (i.e., value for eight hours RN = 8 points, LVN = 6 points); (2) number of personnel available for floating between units.^ The capability of the model to assign staff quantitatively and qualitatively equal to the manual method was established by a thirty day comparison. Sensitivity testing demonstrated appropriate adjustment of the optimal solution to changes in penalty coefficients in the objective function and to acuity totals in the demand constraints.^ Further investigation of the model documented: correct adjustment of assignments in response to staff value changes; and cost minimization by an addition of a dollar coefficient to the objective function. ^

Forecasting cost based on a stochastic utilization plan and a fixed cost function

The application of Markov processes is very useful to health-care problems. The objective of this study is to provide a structured methodology of forecasting cost based upon combining a stochastic model of utilization (Markov Chain) and deterministic cost function. The perspective of the cost in this study is the reimbursement for the services rendered. The data to be used is the OneCare database of claim records of their enrollees over a two-year period of January 1, 1996–December 31, 1997. The model combines a Markov Chain that describes the utilization pattern and its variability where the use of resources by risk groups (age, gender, and diagnosis) will be considered in the process and a cost function determined from a fixed schedule based on real costs or charges for those in the OneCare claims database. The cost function is a secondary application to the model. Goodness-of-fit will be used checked for the model against the traditional method of cost forecasting. ^

The use of culturally related health practices and health care utilization among Hispanic women in farmworker communities

Breast and cervical cancer screening rates continue to be lower in Hispanic women than other ethnic subgroups. Several factors have been identified that influence health care utilization. The use of preventive services (cancer screenings and adherence) in addition to yearly doctor visits are often used to measure health care utilization. A secondary analysis of an existing dataset containing baseline survey data collected from participants of an intervention trial to test the Cultivando La Salud (CLS) program was used to analyze the association between cultural health practice use (use of curandero,s obador, and herbal remedies) and health care utilization. The sample consisted of women 50 years of age and older living in farmer communities in four sites: Eagle Pass, TX, Anthony, NM, Merced, CA, and Watsonville, CA (n=708). Participants reported using a curandero (5.67%), sobador (29.79%), and herbal remedies (46.65%) at some point in their lives. The use of cultural health practices was found to significantly influence utilization of certain health care services: use of herbal remedies influence doctor visits, adherence to mammography screening and adherence to Pap test screening; use of a curandero influenced ever having a mammogram; use of a sobador influenced ever having a mammogram, ever having a Pap test, and Pap test adherence. In addition, women reporting use of curandero or herbal remedies were found to be more avoidant of the health care system than those that reported not using them. Further research is needed to further analyze the influence of cultural health practices on health care utilization. ^

A project to improve the information seeking skills and increase the use of evidence-based research in public health practice

The ability of public health practitioners (PHPs) to work efficiently and effectively is negatively impacted by their lack of knowledge of the broad range of evidence-based practice information resources and tools that can be utilized to guide them in their development of health policies and programs. This project, a three-hour continuing education hands-on workshop with supporting resources, was designed to increase knowledge and skills of these resources. The workshop was presented as a pre-conference continuing education program for the Texas Public Health Association (TPHA) 2008 Annual Conference. Topics included: identification of evidence-based practice resources to aid in the development of policies and programs; identification of sources of publicly available data; utilization of data for community assessments; and accessing and searching the literature through a collection of databases available to all citizens of Texas. Supplemental resources included a blog that served as a gateway to the resources explored during the presentation, a community assessment workbook that incorporates both Healthy People 2010 objectives and links to reliable sources of data, and handouts providing additional instruction on the use of the resources covered during the workshop.^ Before- and after-workshop surveys based on Kirkpatrick's 4-level model of evaluation and the Theory of Planned Behavior were administered. Of the questions related to the trainer, the workshop, and the usefulness of the workshop, participants gave "Good" to "Excellent" responses to all one question. Confidence levels overall increased a statistically significant amount; measurements of attitude, social norms, and control showed no significant differences before and after the workshop. Lastly, participants indicated they were likely to use resources shown during the workshop within a one to three month time period on average. ^ The workshop and creation of supplemental resources served as a pilot for a funded project that will be continued with the development and delivery of four 4-week long webinar-based training sessions to be completed by December 2008. ^