Optimal, minimax, and Bayesian two-stage designs in two-dose phase II clinical trials

Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^

Viability of enteric bacterial pathogens in transport media

Bacterial pathogens such as enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Salmonella, and Campylobacter spp. are associated with up to 80% of diarrheal illness to travelers from developed countries to developing countries. In order to study acute gastrointestinal diseases, researchers from developed countries such as the United States rely on transporting clinical specimens from the developing countries to laboratories in the U.S. in transport media systems. There are few commercially available transport media systems cited in the literature or designated by transport system manufacturers for the transport of enteric bacteria. Therefore a laboratory-based study was conducted to assess three commercial available transport media systems, two gel swabs and one liquid vial, to determine the most appropriate for the maintenance and recovery of common enteric bacterial pathogens. A total of 13 bacterial enteropathogens were recovered from 25°C and 4°C storage temperatures at time points up to 21 days. The results demonstrated that the gel swab and liquid vial transport systems performed similarly for all isolates at both temperatures. All three transport media systems struggled to maintain the isolates at recoverable concentrations when stored at 4°C and it is recommended that isolates be stored at 25°C in transport media systems. Lastly, swab transport systems are recommend for transport since they are small and easy to pack, resist leakage, and are less expensive than similarly performing liquid vial transport media systems.^