Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Effect of progressive mandibular advancement on pharyngeal airway size in anesthetized adults.

BACKGROUND: General anesthesia in adult humans is associated with narrowing or complete closure of the pharyngeal airway. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of progressive mandibular advancement on pharyngeal airway size in normal adults during intravenous infusion of propofol for anesthesia. METHODS: Magnetic resonance imaging was performed in nine normal adults during wakefulness and during propofol anesthesia. A commercially available intraoral appliance was used to manually advance the mandible. Images were obtained during wakefulness without the appliance and during anesthesia with the participants wearing the appliance under three conditions: without mandibular advancement, advancement to 50% maximum voluntary advancement, and maximum advancement. Using computer software, airway area and maximum anteroposterior and lateral airway diameters were measured on the axial images at the level of the soft palate, uvula, tip of the epiglottis, and base of the epiglottis. RESULTS: Airway area across all four airway levels decreased during anesthesia without mandibular advancement compared with airway area during wakefulness (P < 0.007). Across all levels, airway area at 50% advancement during anesthesia was less than that at centric occlusion during wakefulness (P = 0.06), but airway area with maximum advancement during anesthesia was similar to that during wakefulness (P = 0.64). In general, anteroposterior and lateral airway diameters during anesthesia without mandibular advancement were decreased compared with wakefulness and were restored to their wakefulness values with 50% and/or maximal advancement. CONCLUSIONS: Maximum mandibular advancement during propofol anesthesia is required to restore the pharyngeal airway to its size during wakefulness in normal adults.

Parents' impressions of inappropriate television content for Hispanic preschool children

Rates of childhood obesity have increased three-fold in the last 20 years, and experts estimate that well over half of adolescents with a Body Mass Index at or above the 95th percentile become obese adults. These trends are even more pronounced in ethnic minority and lower income populations that are disproportionately impacted by obesity and its complications. It would be appropriate, then, to focus obesity interventions on Hispanic children. Television viewing, especially, has been shown to contribute to obesity by increasing caloric intake and decreasing physical activity. Parent involvement has proven to be a critical component in changing children’s health behaviors. In order to explore parents’ motivations for limiting their children’s television viewing, I qualitatively analyzed data from twenty-five interviews with Houston area Head Start parents. Using Grounded Theory, four main categories of concern emerged from the audio-recorded conversations: developmentally inappropriate content, the influence of television, poor health behaviors/outcomes, and general disapproval with television. Developmentally inappropriate content was the most frequently mentioned category with 119 mentions. This included violence, the most common sub-theme. In all, parents were more concerned with television content that produced proximate consequences such as modeling violent behavior or inappropriate language. Content that encouraged behaviors that led to obesity or other delayed consequences were of less concern to the parents. This suggests that future interventions aimed at encouraging Hispanic parents to reduce their children’s television viewing should draw motivation from parents’ concerns about developmentally inappropriate content, rather than focusing on deleterious health outcomes such as obesity. ^

RNA polymerase II large subunit degradation induced by ecteinascidin 743: Molecular characterization and subsequent rational investigation of antitumor mechanisms in cancers with clinical response

Ecteinascidin 743 (Et-743), which is a novel DNA minor groove alkylator with a unique spectrum of antitumor activity, is currently being evaluated in phase II/III clinical trials. Although the precise molecular mechanisms responsible for the observed antitumor activity are poorly understood, recent data suggests that post-translational modifications of RNA polymerase II Large Subunit (RNAPII LS) may play a central role in the cellular response to this promising anticancer agent. The stalling of an actively transcribing RNAPII LS at Et-743-DNA adducts is the initial cellular signal for transcription-coupled nucleotide excision repair (TC-NER). In this manner, Et-743 poisons TC-NER and produces DNA single strand breaks. Et-743 also inhibits the transcription and RNAPII LS-mediated expression of selected genes. Because the poisoning of TC-NER and transcription inhibition are critical components of the molecular response to Et-743 treatment, we have investigated if changes in RNAPII LS contribute to the disruption of these two cellular pathways. In addition, we have studied changes in RNAPII LS in two tumors for which clinical responses were reported in phase I/II clinical trials: renal cell carcinoma and Ewing's sarcoma. Our results demonstrate that Et-743 induces degradation of the RNAPII LS that is dependent on active transcription, a functional 26S proteasome, and requires functional TC-NER, but not global genome repair. Additionally, we have provided the first experimental data indicating that degradation of RNAPII LS might lead to the inhibition of activated gene transcription. A set of studies performed in isogenic renal carcinoma cells deficient in von Hippel-Lindau protein, which is a ubiquitin-E3-ligase for RNAPII LS, confirmed the central role of RNAPII LS degradation in the sensitivity to Et-743. Finally, we have shown that RNAPII LS is also degraded in Ewing's sarcoma tumors following Et-743 treatment and provide data to suggest that this event plays a role in decreased expression of the Ewing's sarcoma oncoprotein, EWS-Fli1. Altogether, these data implicate degradation of RNAPII LS as a critical event following Et-743 exposure and suggest that the clinical activity observed in renal carcinoma and Ewing's sarcoma may be mediated by disruption of molecular pathways requiring a fully functional RNAPII LS. ^

The characterization of residential fungal spores and the relationship with housing characteristics in the Houston area

A number of indoor environmental factors, including bioaerosol or aeroallergen concentrations have been identified as exacerbators for asthma and allergenic conditions of the respiratory system. People generally spend 90% to 95% of their time indoors. Therefore, understanding the environmental factors that affect the presence of aeroallergens indoors as well as outdoors is important in determining their health impact, and in identifying potential intervention methods. This study aimed to assess the relationship between indoor airborne fungal spore concentrations and indoor surface mold levels, indoor versus outdoor airborne fungal spore concentrations and the effect of previous as well as current water intrusion. Also, the association between airborne concentration of indoor fungal spores and surface mold levels and the age of the housing structure were examined. Further, the correlation between indoor concentrations of certain species was determined as well. ^ Air and surface fungal measurements and related information were obtained from a Houston-area data set compiled from visits to homes filing insurance claims. During the sampling visit these complaint homes exhibited either visible mold or a combination of visible mold and water intrusion problems. These data were examined to assess the relationships between the independent and dependent variables using simple linear regression analysis, and independent t-tests. To examine the correlation between indoor concentrations of certain species, Spearman correlation coefficients were used. ^ There were 126 houses sampled, with spring, n=43 (34.1%), and winter, n=42 (33.3%), representing the seasons with the most samples. The summer sample illustrated the highest geometric mean concentration of fungal spores, GM=5,816.5 relative to winter, fall and spring (GM=1,743.4, GM=3,683.5 and GM=2,507.4, respectively). In all seasons, greater concentrations of fungal spores were observed during the cloudy weather conditions. ^ The results indicated no statistically significant association between outdoor total airborne fungal spore concentration and total living room airborne fungal spore concentration (β = 0.095, p = 0.491). Second, living room surface mold levels were not associated with living room airborne fungal spore concentration, (β= 0.011, p = 0.669). Third, houses with and without previous water intrusion did not differ significantly with respect to either living room (t(111) = 0.710, p = 0.528) or bedroom (t(111) =1.673, p = 0.162) airborne fungal spore concentrations. Likewise houses with and without current water intrusion did not differ significantly with respect to living room (t(109)=0.716, p = 0.476) or bedroom (t(109) = 1.035, p = 0.304) airborne fungal spore concentration. Fourth, houses with and without current water intrusion did not differ significantly with respect to living room (χ 2 (5) = 5.61, p = 0.346), or bedroom (χ 2 (5) = 1.80, p = 0.875) surface mold levels. Fifth, the age of the house structure did not predict living room (β = 0.023, p = 0.102) and bedroom (β = 0.023, p = 0.065) surface mold levels nor living room (β = 0.002, p = 0.131) and bedroom (β = 0.001, p = 0.650) fungal spore airborne concentration. Sixth, in houses with visually observed mold growth there was statistically significant differences between the mean living room concentrations and mean outdoor concentrations for Cladosporium (t (107) = 11.73, p < 0.0001), Stachybotrys (t (106)=2.288, p = 0.024, and Nigrosporia (t (102) = 2.267, p = 0.025). Finally, there was a significant correlation between several living room fungal species pairs, namely, Cladosporium and Stachybotrys (r = 0.373, p <0.01, n=65), Curvularia and Aspergillus/Penicillium (r = 0.205, p < 0.05, n= 111)), Curvularia and Stachybotrys (r = 0.205, p < 0.05, n=111), Nigrospora and Chaetomium (r = 0.254, p < 0.01, n=105) and Stachybotrys and Nigrospora (r = 0.269, p < 0.01, n=105). ^ This study has demonstrated several positive findings, i.e., significant pairwise correlations of concentrations of several fungal species in living room air, and significant differences between indoor and outdoor concentrations of three fungal species in homes with visible mold. No association was observed between indoor and outdoor fungal spore concentrations. Neither living room nor bedroom airborne spore concentrations and surface mold levels were related to the age of the house or to water intrusion, either previous or current. Therefore, these findings suggest the need for evaluating additional parameters, as well as combinations of factors such as humidity, temperature, age of structure, ventilation, and room size to better understand the determinants of airborne fungal spore concentrations and surface mold levels in homes. ^

Pediatric asthma incidence in Texas and associations with ambient ozone levels in an urban area an analysis using Medicaid claims data

Few recent estimates of childhood asthma incidence exist in the literature, although the importance of incidence surveillance for understanding asthma risk factors has been recognized. Asthma prevalence, morbidity and mortality reports have repeatedly shown that low-income children are disproportionately impacted by the disease. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of Medicaid claims data for providing statewide estimates of asthma incidence. Medicaid Analytic Extract (MAX) data for Texas children ages 0-17 enrolled in Medicaid between 2004 and 2007 were used to estimate incidence overall and by age group, gender, race and county of residence. A 13+ month period of continuous enrollment was required in order to distinguish incident from prevalent cases identified in the claims data. Age-adjusted incidence of asthma was 4.26/100 person-years during 2005-2007, higher than reported in other populations. Incidence rates decreased with age, were higher for males than females, differed by race, and tended to be higher in rural than urban areas. With this study, we were able to demonstrate the utility of MAX data for estimating asthma incidence, and create a dataset of incident cases to use in further analysis. ^ In subsequent analyses, we investigated a possible association between ambient air pollutants and incident asthma among Medicaid-enrolled children in Harris County Texas between 2005 and 2007. This population is at high risk for asthma, and living in an area with historically poor air quality. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios, adjusted for weather variables and aeroallergens, to assess the effect of increases in ozone, NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations on risk of developing asthma. Our results show that a 10 ppb increase in ozone was significantly associated with asthma during the warm season (May-October), with the strongest effect seen when a 6-day cumulative lag period was used to compute the exposure metric (OR=1.05, 95% CI, 1.02–1.08). Similar results were seen for NO2 and PM 2.5 (OR=1.07, 95% CI, 1.03–1.11 and OR=1.12, 95% CI, 1.03–1.22, respectively). PM2.5 also had significant effects in the cold season (November-April), 5-day cumulative lag: OR=1.11, 95% CI, 1.00–1.22. When compared with children in the lowest quartile of O3 exposure, the risk for children in the highest quartile was 20% higher. This study indicates that these pollutants are associated with newly-diagnosed childhood asthma in this low-income urban population, particularly during the summer months. ^