Age -period -cohort analysis: An extension of Cox's lifetable regression with time -dependent covariates

It is well known that an identification problem exists in the analysis of age-period-cohort data because of the relationship among the three factors (date of birth + age at death = date of death). There are numerous suggestions about how to analyze the data. No one solution has been satisfactory. The purpose of this study is to provide another analytic method by extending the Cox's lifetable regression model with time-dependent covariates. The new approach contains the following features: (1) It is based on the conditional maximum likelihood procedure using a proportional hazard function described by Cox (1972), treating the age factor as the underlying hazard to estimate the parameters for the cohort and period factors. (2) The model is flexible so that both the cohort and period factors can be treated as dummy or continuous variables, and the parameter estimations can be obtained for numerous combinations of variables as in a regression analysis. (3) The model is applicable even when the time period is unequally spaced.^ Two specific models are considered to illustrate the new approach and applied to the U.S. prostate cancer data. We find that there are significant differences between all cohorts and there is a significant period effect for both whites and nonwhites. The underlying hazard increases exponentially with age indicating that old people have much higher risk than young people. A log transformation of relative risk shows that the prostate cancer risk declined in recent cohorts for both models. However, prostate cancer risk declined 5 cohorts (25 years) earlier for whites than for nonwhites under the period factor model (0 0 0 1 1 1 1). These latter results are similar to the previous study by Holford (1983).^ The new approach offers a general method to analyze the age-period-cohort data without using any arbitrary constraint in the model. ^

NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

Sex Trafficking of Minors in the U.S.: Implications for Policy, Prevention and Research

Context: Information currently available on the trafficking of minors in the U.S. for commercial sexual exploitation includes approximations of the numbers involved, risk factors that increase the likelihood of victimization and methods of recruitment and control. However, specific characteristics about this vulnerable population remain largely unknown. Objective: This article has two distinct purposes. The first is to provide the reader with an overview of available information on minor sex trafficking in the U.S. The second is to present findings and discuss policy, research, and educational implications from secondary data analysis of 115 cases of minor sex trafficking in the U.S. Design: Minor sex trafficking cases were identified through two main venues - a review of U.S. Department of Justice press releases of human trafficking cases and an online search of media reports. Searches covered the time period from October 28, 2000, which coincided with the passage of the VTVPA through October 31, 2009. Cases were included in analysis if the incident involved at least one victim under the age of 18, occurred in the U.S., and at least one perpetrator had been arrested, indicted, or convicted. Results: A total of 115 separate incidents involving at least 153 victims were located. These occurrences involved 215 perpetrators, with the majority of them having been convicted (n = 117, 53.4%), The number of victims involved in a single incident ranged from 1 to 9. Over 90% of victims were female who ranged in age from 5 to 17 years. There were more U.S. minor victims than those from other countries. Victims had been in captivity from less than 6 months to 5 years. Minors most commonly fell into exploitation through some type of false promise indicated (16.3%, n = 25), followed by kidnapping (9.8%, n = 15). Over a fifth of the sample (22.2%, n = 34) were abused through two commercial sex practices, with almost all (94.1%, n = 144) used in prostitution. One of every five victims (24.8%, n = 38) had been advertised on an Internet website. Conclusions: Results of a review of known information about minor sex trafficking and findings from analysis of 115 incidents of the sex trafficking of youth in the U.S. indicate a need for stronger legislation to educate various professional groups, more comprehensive services for victims, stricter laws for pimps and traffickers, and preventive educational interventions beginning at a young age.

Change Detection Memory in Rhesus Monkeys and Humans

Visual short-term memory (VSTM) is the storage of visual information over a brief time period (usually a few seconds or less). Over the past decade, the most popular task for studying VSTM in humans has been the change detection task. In this task, subjects must remember several visual items per trial in order to identify a change following a brief delay interval. Results from change detection tasks have shown that VSTM is limited; humans are only able to accurately hold a few visual items in mind over a brief delay. However, there has been much debate in regard to the structure or cause of these limitations. The two most popular conceptualizations of VSTM limitations in recent years have been the fixed-capacity model and the continuous-resource model. The fixed-capacity model proposes a discrete limit on the total number of visual items that can be stored in VSTM. The continuous-resource model proposes a continuous-resource that can be allocated among many visual items in VSTM, with noise in item memory increasing as the number of items to be remembered increases. While VSTM is far from being completely understood in humans, even less is known about VSTM in non-human animals, including the rhesus monkey (Macaca mulatta). Given that rhesus monkeys are the premier medical model for humans, it is important to understand their VSTM if they are to contribute to understanding human memory. The primary goals of this study were to train and test rhesus monkeys and humans in change detection in order to directly compare VSTM between the two species and explore the possibility that direct species comparison might shed light on the fixed-capacity vs. continuous-resource models of VSTM. The comparative results suggest qualitatively similar VSTM for the two species through converging evidence supporting the continuous-resource model and thereby establish rhesus monkeys as a good system for exploring neurophysiological correlates of VSTM.

Calcification of a collagen-liposome complex

The purpose of the study was to evaluate in vitro calcification potential among liposomes composed of phospholipids with variations in fatty acid chains and polar head groups. The liposome was also modified by utilizing mixed phospholipids, incorporation of different types of protein to the liposome, or complexing with various collagen preparations. The samples were then incubated in a metastable calcium phosphate solution for the proposed time period. Calcium and phosphate uptake were measured. Resulting precipitates were processed for x-ray diffraction and electron microscopy. Acidic phospholipid, Dioleoylphosphatidic acid and mixed phospholipids, Dioleoylphosphatidic acid/Dipalmitoylphosphatidylethanolamine liposomes calcified at a faster rate and to a greater degree than other phospholipids tested. The incorporation of polylysine, fibronectin, bone protein, or the complexing with collagen decreased the rate and amount of calcification. Electron microscopy demonstrated the similarity of the calcified collagen-liposome complex to the natural calcification matrix. These preparations may be used as a model to study the role of membrane lipids and collagen-phospholipid during the process of calcification.^ The in vivo study was designed to determine whether the potential existed for the promotion of bone healing by the synthetic liposome-collagen complex. The implant materials were modified to provide decreased antigenicity, biocompatability while maintaining their bone conduction properties. The samples were placed subcutaneously and/or subperiosteally and/or in 8 mm calvarium defects of adult rats. Histological and immunological studies demonstrated that the implant itself retained minimal antigenicity and did not inhibit bone formation. However, modification of the implant may contain the bone induction property and be utilized to stimulate bony healing. ^

Regulation of the gastrin-releasing peptide/bombesin receptor

Gastrin-releasing peptide (GRP) and other bombesin-like peptides stimulate hormone secretion and cell proliferation by binding to specific G-protein-coupled receptors. Three studies were performed to identify potential mechanisms involved in GRP/bombesin receptor regulation.^ Although bombesin receptors are localized throughout the gastrointestinal tract, few gastrointestinal cell lines are available to study bombesin action. In the first study, the binding and function of bombesin receptors in the human HuTu-80 duodenal cancer cell line were characterized. ($\sp{125}$I-Tyr$\sp4$) bombesin bound with high affinity to a GRP-preferring receptor. Bombesin treatment increased IP$\sb3$ production, but had no effect on cell proliferation. Similar processing of ($\sp{125}$I-Tyr$\sp4$) bombesin and of GRP-receptors was observed in HuTu-80 cells and Swiss 3T3 fibroblasts, a cell line which mitogenically responds to bombesin. Therefore, the lack of a bombesin mitogenic effect in HuTu-80 cells is not due to unusual processing of ($\sp{125}$I-Tyr$\sp4$) bombesin or rapid GRP-receptor down-regulation.^ In the second study, a bombesin antagonist was developed to study the processing and regulatory events after antagonist binding. As previously shown, receptor bound agonist, ($\sp{125}$I-Tyr$\sp4$) bombesin, was rapidly internalized and degraded in chloroquine-sensitive compartments. Interestingly, receptor-bound antagonist, ($\sp{125}$I-D-Tyr$\sp6$) bombesin(6-13)PA was not internalized, but degraded at the cell-surface. In contrast to bombesin, (D-Tyr$\sp6$) bombesin(6-13)PA treatment did not cause receptor internalization. Together these results demonstrate that receptor regulation and receptor-mediated processing of antagonist is different from that of agonist.^ Bombesin receptors undergo acute desensitization. By analogy to other G-protein-coupled receptors, a potential desensitization mechanism may involve receptor phosphorylation. In the final study, $\sp{32}$P-labelled Swiss 3T3 fibroblasts and CHO-mBR1 cells were treated with bombesin and the GRP-receptor was immunoprecipitated. In both cell lines, bombesin treatment markedly stimulated GRP-receptor phosphorylation. Furthermore, bombesin-stimulated GRP-receptor phosphorylation occurred within the same time period as bombesin-stimulated desensitization, demonstrating that these two processes are correlated.^ In conclusion, these studies of GRP-receptor regulation further our understanding of bombesin action and provide insight into G-protein-coupled receptor regulation in general. ^

The effects of population density on the spread of disease

The objective of this study is to identify the relationship between population density and the initial stages of the spread of disease in a local population. This study proposes to concentrate on the question of how population density affects the distribution of the susceptible individuals in a local population and thus affects the spread of the disease, measles. Population density is measured by the average of the number of contacts with susceptible individuals by each individual in the population during a fixed-length time period. The term “contact with susceptible individuals” means sufficient contact between two people for the disease to pass from an infectious person to a susceptible person. The fixed-length time period is taken to be the average length of time an infected person is infectious without symptoms of the disease. For this study of measles, the time period will be seven days. ^ While much attention has been given to modeling the entire epidemic process of measles, attempts have not been made to study the characteristics of contact rates required to initiate an epidemic. This study explores the relationship between population density, given a specific herd immunity rate in the population, and initial rate of the spread of the disease by considering the underlying distribution of contacts with susceptibles by the individuals in the population. ^ This study does not seek to model an entire measles epidemic, but to model the above stated relationship for the local population within which the first infective person is introduced. This study describes the mathematical relationship between population density parameters and contact distribution parameters. ^ The results are displayed in graphs that show the effects of different population densities on the spread of disease. The results support the idea that the number of new infectives is strongly related to the distribution of susceptible contacts. The results also show large differences in the epidemic measures between populations with densities equal to four versus three. ^

The transformation of a health care system: An ecology perspective

Beginning in the early 1980s, the health care system experienced momentous realignments. Fundamental changes in structures of traditional health care organizations, shifts in authority and relationships of professionals and institutions, and the increasing influence of managed care contributed to a relatively stable industry entering into a state of turbulence. The dynamics of these changes are recurring themes in the health services literature. The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the content of this literature over a defined time period and within the perspective of a theory of organizational change. ^ Using a theoretical framework based upon the organizational theory known as Organizational Ecology, secondary data from the period between 1983 and 1994 was reviewed. Analysis of the literature identified through a defined search methodology was focused upon determining the manner in which the literature characterized changes that were described. Using a model constructed from fundamentals of Organizational Ecology with which to structure an assessment of content, literature was summarized for the manner and extent of change in specific organizational forms and for the changes in emphasis by the environmental dynamics directing changes in the population of organizations. Although it was not the intent of the analysis to substantiate causal relationships between environmental resources selected as the determinants of organizational change and the observed changes in organizational forms, the structured review of content of the literature established a strong basis for inferring such a relationship. ^ The results of the integrative review of the literature and the power of the appraisal achieved through the theoretical framework constructed for the analysis indicate that there is considerable value in such an approach. An historical perspective on changes which have transformed the health care system developed within a defined organizational theory provide a unique insight into these changes and indicate the need for further development of such an analytical model. ^

THE INHIBITORY EFFECTS OF VSV INFECTION ON MULV PRODUCTION OCCUR BETWEEN SYNTHESIS AND RELEASE OF MULV GENOMIC RNA

The inhibitory effects of VSV infection on MuLV production were investigated using the VSV temperature-sensitive mutants t1B17(I & V), tsT1026(I), tsG22(II), and ts052(II). At the permissive temperature, all four mutants suppressed the release of virion-associated MuLV gRNA by approximately 98% within 0.5 to 2.5 hr post infection. At the restrictive temperature and in the absence of cell killing, infection with t1B17(I & V) inhibited the release of MuLV gRNA, while tsT1026(I) and tsG22(II) did not. In contrast, ts052(II) inhibited the release of MuLV gRNA and induced cell killing. During the same time period and at either temperature, all four mutants did not suppress either MuLV-associated protein release or intracellular MuLV sRNA synthesis. These results indicate that VSV inhibits MULV gRNA release at a level somewhere between the synthesis and release of newly synthesized gRNA.^

For-profit business safety interventions: A systematic, descriptive review of the literature

The purpose of this research was to determine if principles from organizational theory could be used as a framework to compare and contrast safety interventions developed by for-profit industry for the time period 1986–1996. A literature search of electronic databases and manual search of journals and local university libraries' book stacks was conducted for safety interventions developed by for-profit businesses. To maintain a constant regulatory environment, the business sectors of nuclear power, aviation and non-profits were excluded. Safety intervention evaluations were screened for scientific merit. Leavitt's model from organization theory was updated to include safety climate and renamed the Updated Leavitt's Model. In all, 8000 safety citations were retrieved, 525 met the inclusion criteria, 255 met the organizational safety intervention criteria, and 50 met the scientific merit criteria. Most came from non-public health journals. These 50 were categorized by the Updated Leavitt's Model according to where within the organizational structure the intervention took place. Evidence tables were constructed for descriptive comparison. The interventions clustered in the areas of social structure, safety climate, the interaction between social structure and participants, and the interaction between technology and participants. No interventions were found in the interactions between social structure and technology, goals and technology, or participants and goals. Despite the scientific merit criteria, many still had significant study design weaknesses. Five interventions tested for statistical significance but none of the interventions commented on the power of their study. Empiric studies based on safety climate theorems had the most rigorous designs. There was an attempt in these studies to address randomization amongst subjects to avoid bias. This work highlights the utility of using the Updated Leavitt's Model, a model from organizational theory, as a framework when comparing safety interventions. This work also highlights the need for better study design of future trials of safety interventions. ^

Texas Department of Health organizational structure changes: A reflection of public health policy and agency expansion, September 1, 1946--June 30, 1994

The premise of this study is that changes in the agency's organizational structure reflect changes in government public health policy. Based on this premise, this study tracks the changes in the organizational structure and the overall expansion of the Texas Department of Health to understand the evolution of changing public health priorities in state policy from September 1, 1946 through June 30, 1994, a period of growth and new responsibilities. It includes thirty-seven observations of organizational structure as depicted by organizational charts of the agency and/or adapted from public documents. ^ The major questions answered are, what are the changes in the organizational structure, why did they occur and, what are the policy priorities reflected in these changes in and across the various time periods. ^ The analysis of the study included a thorough review of the organizational structure of the agency for the time-span of the study, the formulation of the criteria to be used in ascertaining the changes, the delineation of the changes in the organizational structure and comparison of the observations sequentially to characterize the change, the discovery of reasons for the structural changes (financial, statutory - federal and state, social and political factors), and the determination of policy priorities for each time period and their relation to the expansion and evolution of the agency. ^ The premise that the organizational structure of the agency and the changes over time reflect government public health policy and agency expansion was found to be true. ^

Youth population's health issues in Comal County, Texas

This study assesses adolescent's health issues in Comal County, TX. Adolescents are defined as youth between the ages of 12 to 17 years of age, who resided in Comal County during the time period of 2000 to 2007. The analysis focused on high risk behaviors including use of gateway drugs—tobacco and alcohol; illegal substance use; and reproductive health related indicators, including sexual activity, sexually transmitted diseases, and pregnancy. This study is based on the primary and secondary data collected as part of the 2008 Comal County Community Assessment. It compares findings from the primary data sources to extant data from four secondary data sources including: (1) The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (national) Healthy People 2010; (2) The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey, 2007; (3) The Texas Department of State Health Services, 2000 to 2007; and The Pride Survey (Local and Statewide). The methods are drawn from the literature on "rapid epidemiologic appraisal" (Annett H. & Rifkin S. B., 1988). The study focus on corroborating the perceptions, subjective concerns, opinions and beliefs of the Comal County key stakeholders and community participants with qualitative and quantitative indicators of health and well being. The value of this approach is to inform community leaders using a public health perspective and evidence in their decisions about priority setting and resources allocation activities for prevention of high risk behaviors and promotion of adolescent health and well being. ^

The association of food sources of calcium with weight class in adolescent girls

To determine the association of food sources of calcium with weight class in adolescent girls, the major food sources of calcium were determined for 718 sixth grade girls at three different time periods during an 18 month school-based health intervention program using a FFQ. To determine weight class, the BMI of each girl was stratified using CDC age and gender specific criteria at each time period. The percent contribution of the major food sources of calcium to total calcium intake was compared among the different weight classes at each time period, among those girls who had changed weight class at the different time periods and for those girls who did not change weight class at the different time periods. The mean total calcium intake increased by 20% between the first two time periods and by 12% between the first and last time periods with the intervention despite baseline total calcium intake already being greater than the recommended 1300 mg/day. The percent contribution of the major food sources of calcium were highly correlated among the weight classes that were compared throughout the study. Those girls who remained in the normal weight class throughout the study had the most consistent intake of food sources of calcium. Their top four food sources of calcium were different types of milk which provided greater than 50% of their total calcium intake. Despite there being no significant differences in the major food sources of calcium among the different weight classes, these data show a successful intervention for increasing calcium intake among adolescent girls. ^

Use of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis in surveillance of Salmonella in Houston, Texas

Background. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) is a laboratory technique in which Salmonella DNA banding patterns are used as molecular fingerprints for epidemiologic study for "PFGE clusters". State and national health departments (CDC) use PFGE to detect clusters of related cases and to discover common sources of bacteria in outbreaks. ^ Objectives. Using Houston Department of Health and Human Services (HDHHS) data, the study sought: (1) to describe the epidemiology of Salmonella in Houston, with PFGE subtype as a variable; and (2) to determine whether PFGE patterns and clusters detected in Houston were local appearances of PFGE patterns or clusters that occurred statewide. ^ Methods. During the years 2002 to 2005, the HDHHS collected and analyzed data from routine surveillance of Salmonella. We implemented a protocol, between May 1, 2007 and December 31, 2007, in which PFGE patterns from local cases were sent via e-mail to the Texas Department of State Health Services, to verify whether the local PFGE patterns were also part of statewide clusters. PFGE was performed from 106 patients providing a sample from which Salmonella was isolated in that time period. Local PFGE clusters were investigated, with the enhanced picture obtained by linking local PFGE patterns to PFGE patterns at the state and national level. ^ Results. We found that, during the years 2002 to 2005, there were 66 PFGE clusters, ranging in size from 2 to 22 patients within each cluster. Between different serotypes, there were marked differences in the sizes of PFGE clusters. A common source or risk factor was found in fewer than 5 of the 66 PFGE clusters. With the revised protocol, we found that 19 of 66 local PFGE patterns were indistinguishable from PFGE patterns at Texas DSHS. During the eight months, we identified ten local PFGE clusters with a total of 42 patients. The PFGE pattern for eight of the ten clusters matched the PFGE patterns for cases reported to Texas DSHS from other geographic areas. Five of the ten PFGE patterns matched PFGE patterns for clusters under investigation at PulseNet at the national level. HDHHS epidemiologists identified a mode of transmission in two of the ten local clusters and a common risk factor in a third local cluster. ^ Conclusion. In the extended-study protocol, Houston PFGE patterns were linked to patterns seen at the state and national level. The investigation of PFGE clusters was more efficacious in detecting a common transmission when local data were linked to state and national data. ^

Evaluation of the LBJ Hospital Ask Your Nurse Advice Line

This retrospective, case-control study investigated the effectiveness of the Houston, Texas Ask Your Nurse Advice Line (AYN) in diverting callers with non-emergent medical conditions away from the emergency department (ED). After asking callers a series of questions, AYN nurses evaluate the medical condition and make recommendations for appropriate care, e.g., home care, see a clinic physician, or visit the ED. To evaluate the AYN, the rate of caller ED visits before accessing the AYN for the first time was compared to the caller ED visit rate afterwards. The pre-post rate change was compared to that of a control group of similar caller age, race, gender, and insurance status drawn from a Harris County Hospital District HCHD database. ^ The treatment group (AYN caller) had a 66% reduction in ED visits after the first AYN call compared to an 18% drop in ED visits among control group subjects during the same time period. Study results were presented to HCHD staff on August 30th, 2007 and recommendations were made for future studies that would provide a basis for policy development. ^