A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^

TEMOZOLOMIDE AND BEVACIZUMAB THERAPY IN ADVANCED HEMANGIOPERICYTOMA/ SOLITARY FIBROUS TUMOR

Tumors comprising the spectrum of hemangiopericytoma/ malignant solitary fibrous tumor (HPC/SFT) are thought to arise from fibroblasts and represent a small subset of soft tissue sarcomas. Surgery is typically the treatment of choice for localized disease, with reported 10-year overall survival rates of 54-89% after complete surgical resection. However, for the approximately 20% of HPC/SFT patients who eventually develop local recurrences and/or distant metastases, options for effective treatment are limited and are poorly defined. Alternative therapeutic options are therefore needed for improved palliation and disease control. We hypothesize that HPC/SFT are a spectrum of soft tissue tumors with unique clinical, pathological, and molecular makeup and clinical behavior. HPC/SFT respond to unique therapeutic agents that specifically target aberrations specific to these tumors. We retrospectively reviewed the characteristics and the clinical outcomes for all HPC/SFT patients whose tumor specimens have been reviewed at the MD Anderson Cancer Center from January 1993 to June 2007 by a MD Anderson pathologist and were treated at the institution with available electronic medical records. We identified 128 patients, 79 with primary localized disease and 49 with recurrent and/or metastatic disease. For the 23 patients with advanced HPC/SFT who received adriamycin-based, gemcitabine based, or paclitaxel chemotherapy as first- or second-line therapy, the overall RECIST response rate was 0%. Most patients achieved a brief duration of disease stabilization on chemotherapy, with median progression-free survival (PFS) period of 4.6 months. For the 14 patients with advanced HPC/SFT who received temozolomide and bevacizumab systemic therapy, the overall RECIST response rate was 14%, with the overall Choi response rate of 79%. The median PFS for the cohort was 9.7 months with a median 6-month progression free rate of 78.6%. The most frequently observed toxic effect of temzolomide-bevacizumab therapy was myelosuppression. We have designed a phase II study to evaluate the safety and efficacy of temozolomide-bevaciumab in locally advanced, recurrent, and metastatic HPC/SFT in a prospective manner. Combination therapy with temozolomide and bevacizumab may be a potentially clinically beneficial regimen for advanced HPC/SFT patients.

Long-term survival after multidisciplinary management of resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Actual 5-year survival rates of 10-18% have been reported for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PC), but the use of multimodality therapy was uncommon in these series. We evaluated long-term survival and patterns of recurrence in patients treated for PC with contemporary staging and multimodality therapy. METHODS: We analyzed 329 consecutive patients with PC evaluated between 1990 and 2002 who underwent resection. Each received a multidisciplinary evaluation and a standard operative approach. Pre- or postoperative chemotherapy and/or chemoradiation were routine. Surgical specimens of 5-year survivors were re-reviewed. A multivariate model of factors associated with long-term survival was constructed. RESULTS: Patients underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 302; 92%), distal (n = 20; 6%), or total pancreatectomy (n = 7; 2%). A total of 108 patients (33%) underwent vascular reconstruction, 301 patients (91%) received neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy, 157 specimens (48%) were node positive, and margins were microscopically positive in 52 patients (16%). Median overall survival and disease-specific survival was 23.9 and 26.5 months. Eighty-eight patients (27%) survived a minimum of 5 years and had a median overall survival of 11 years. Of these, 21 (24%) experienced recurrence, 7 (8%) after 5 years. Late recurrences occurred most frequently in the lungs, the latest at 6.7 years. Multivariate analysis identified disease-negative lymph nodes (P = .02) and no prior attempt at resection (P = 0.01) as associated with 5-year survival. CONCLUSIONS: Our 27% actual 5-year survival rate for patients with resected PC is superior to that previously reported, and it is influenced by our emphasis on detailed staging and patient selection, a standardized operative approach, and routine use of multimodality therapy.

Factors governing late-recurrence of disease in a cohort of early-stage breast cancer survivors

Purpose. To determine the risk of late breast cancer recurrence (5 years after treatment) in a population of women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) between 1985-2000 and to examine the effect of this population’s BMI, smoking history, reproductive history, hormone use, and alcohol intake at the time of diagnosis on risk of late recurrence.^ Methods. Patients included 1,913 members of the Early Stage Breast Cancer Repository recruited at MDACC who had survived without a recurrence for at least five years after their initial diagnosis of early stage breast cancer. Clinical and epidemiological information was ascertained twice on participants during the study—first by medical record abstraction then by patient interview at least five years after receipt of adjuvant treatment. A total of 223 late breast cancer recurrences were captured, with an average follow-up of 10.6 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). ^