NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

The association between maternal use of spermicides, condoms, intra-uterine devices or progesterone and major structural birth defects

Birth defects occur in 1 of every 33 babies born in the United States, and are the leading cause of infant death. Mothers using contraceptives that become pregnant may continue to use their contraceptives after their first missed menstrual period, thus exposing their baby in utero to the contraceptive product. Progesterone is also sometimes prescribed during the first trimester of pregnancy to mothers with a history of miscarriages or infertility problems. To ensure the safety of these products, it is important to investigate whether there is an increased occurrence of babies born with birth defects to mothers using various contraceptive methods or progesterone in early pregnancy. Using data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS), an ongoing multi-state, population based case-control study, this study assessed maternal exposures to IUDs, spermicides, condoms and progesterone in early pregnancy. ^ Progesterone used for threatened miscarriage during the first three months of pregnancy was associated with an increased occurrence of hypoplastic left heart (adjusted odds ratios (OR) 2.24, 95% CI 1.13-4.21), perimembranous ventricular septal defects (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.10-2.41), septal associations (OR 2.52, 95% CI 1.45-4.24), esophageal atresia (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.04-3.08), and hypospadias (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.41-3.18). Mothers using progesterone for injectable contraception had increased (OR > 2.5), but insignificant odds ratios for anencephaly, septal associations, small intestinal atresias and omphalocel. Progesterone used for fertility was not associated with an increased occurrence of any birth defects examined. ^ Mothers using progesterone for fertility assistance and threatened miscarriage were very similar with respect to their demographics and pregnancy history. They also both reported similar types of progesterone. Thus, if progesterone was a causal risk factor for birth defects we would have expected to observe similar increases in risk among mothers using progesterone for both indications. Because we predominantly observed increased associations among mothers using progesterone for threatened miscarriage but not fertility assistance, it is possible the increased associations we observed were confounded by indication (i.e. progesterone was administered for vaginal bleeding which occurred as a sequelae to the formation of a congenital anomaly. ^ No significant increased associations were observed between maternal spermicide use during pregnancy and 26 of 27 types of structural malformations. While multiple statistical tests were performed we observed first trimester maternal spermicide use to be associated with a significant increased occurrence of perimembranous ventricular septal defects (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.16-4.21). A decreased occurrence (OR < 1.0) was observed for several categories of birth defects among mothers who conceived in the first cycle after discontinuing the use of spermicides (22 of 28) or male condoms (23 of 33). ^ Overall the percent of IUD use was similar between mothers of controls and mothers of all cases in aggregate (crude OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.61-1.84). Power was limited to detect significant associations between IUD use and birth defects, however mothers using an IUD in the month immediately prior to conception or during pregnancy were not associated with an increase of birth defects. Limb defects and amniotic band sequence previously reported to be associated with IUD use during pregnancy were not found to occur among any mothers reporting the use of an IUD during pregnancy.^

The association between maternal use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors during pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcomes

Maternal use of SSRIs for depression and anxiety during pregnancy has increased over the last decade. Recent studies have questioned the safety of these antidepressants when used in during pregnancy. The aim of this project is to assess the associations between maternal SSRI use and GH, SGA, and preterm birth using data from a U.S. population-based study with self-reported exposure information. ^ The study population is comprised of mothers of control infants from the NBDPS, an ongoing, multi-state, population-based case-control study. Mothers were asked about any use of medications during pregnancy, including the dates they started and stopped taking each medication. Maternal GH was self-reported, while gestational age and birth weight were calculated from information on birth certificates or medical records. ^ Our study found that women exposed to SSRIs in the first trimester and beyond had a higher odds of GH compared to unexposed women (aOR=1.96, 95% CI=1.02-3.74). Women who used SSRIs only in the first trimester had no increased odds of GH (aOR=0.77, 95% CI=0.24-2.50). Women who used SSRIs throughout their entire pregnancy had a two-fold increase in the odds of delivering an SGA infant compared to unexposed women (aOR=2.16, 95% CI=1.01-4.62), while women who reported SSRI use only in the first trimester had a decreased odds of delivering an SGA infant (aOR=0.56, 95% CI=0.14-2.34). Finally, both women who used SSRIs in the first trimester only (aOR=1.58, 95% CI=0.71-3.51) and women who used SSRIs in the first trimester and beyond (aOR=1.49, 95% CI=0.76-2.90) had an increased odds of delivering preterm compared to unexposed women. ^ Results from our study suggest that women who use SSRIs in the first trimester and beyond have an increased and significant odds of GH and SGA. An increase in the odds of preterm birth was also observed among women exposed in this period and is consistent with the results of previous studies which had much larger sample sizes. Women who use SSRIs only in the first trimester appear to have no increased odds of GH or SGA, but may have an increased odds of preterm birth. These findings are consistent with previous studies and highlight how exposure to SSRIs at different points in gestation may result in different risks for these outcomes. ^

SIGNALING MECHANISMS THAT CONTROL GAP JUNCTIONAL COUPLING BETWEEN RETINAL NEURONS

Gap junctions between neurons form the structural substrate for electrical synapses. Connexin 36 (Cx36, and its non-mammalian ortholog connexin 35) is the major neuronal gap junction protein in the central nervous system (CNS), and contributes to several important neuronal functions including neuronal synchronization, signal averaging, network oscillations, and motor learning. Connexin 36 is strongly expressed in the retina, where it is an obligatory component of the high-sensitivity rod photoreceptor pathway. A fundamental requirement of the retina is to adapt to broadly varying inputs in order to maintain a dynamic range of signaling output. Modulation of the strength of electrical coupling between networks of retinal neurons, including the Cx36-coupled AII amacrine cell in the primary rod circuit, is a hallmark of retinal luminance adaptation. However, very little is known about the mechanisms regulating dynamic modulation of Cx36-mediated coupling. The primary goal of this work was to understand how cellular signaling mechanisms regulate coupling through Cx36 gap junctions. We began by developing and characterizing phospho-specific antibodies against key regulatory phosphorylation sites on Cx36. Using these tools we showed that phosphorylation of Cx35 in fish models varies with light adaptation state, and is modulated by acute changes in background illumination. We next turned our focus to the well-studied and readily identifiable AII amacrine cell in mammalian retina. Using this model we showed that increased phosphorylation of Cx36 is directly related to increased coupling through these gap junctions, and that the dopamine-stimulated uncoupling of the AII network is mediated by dephosphorylation of Cx36 via protein kinase A-stimulated protein phosphatase 2A activity. We then showed that increased phosphorylation of Cx36 on the AII amacrine network is driven by depolarization of presynaptic ON-type bipolar cells as well as background light increments. This increase in phosphorylation is mediated by activation of extrasynaptic NMDA receptors associated with Cx36 gap junctions on AII amacrine cells and by Ca2+-calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II activation. Finally, these studies indicated that coupling is regulated locally at individual gap junction plaques. This work provides a framework for future study of regulation of Cx36-mediated coupling, in which increased phosphorylation of Cx36 indicates increased neuronal coupling.

Regulatory factors and control of anthrax toxin gene expression

Bacillus anthracis plasmid pXO1 carries genes for three anthrax toxin proteins, pag (protective antigen), cya (edema factor), and lef (lethal factor). Expression of the toxin genes is enhanced by two signals: CO$\sb2$/bicarbonate and temperature. The CO$\sb2$/bicarbonate effect requires the presence of pXO1. I hypothesized that pXO1 harbors a trans-acting regulatory gene(s) required for CO$\sb2$/bicarbonate-enhanced expression of the toxin genes. Characterization of such a gene(s) will lead to increased understanding of the mechanisms by which B. anthracis senses and responds to host environments.^ A regulatory gene (atxA) on pXO1 was identified. Transcription of all three toxin genes is decreased in an atxA-null mutant. There are two transcriptional start sites for pag. Transcription from the major site, P1, is enhanced in elevated CO$\sb2$. Only P1 transcripts are significantly decreased in the atxA mutant. Deletion analysis of the pag upstream region indicates that the 111-bp region upstream of the P1 site is sufficient for atxA-mediated increase of this transcript. The cya and lef genes each have one apparent transcriptional start site. The cya and lef transcripts are significantly decreased in the atxA mutant. The atxA mutant is avirulent in mice. The antibody response to all three toxin proteins is significantly decreased in atxA mutant-infected mice. These data suggest that the atxA gene product activates expression of the toxin genes and is essential for virulence.^ Since expression of the toxin genes is dependent on atxA, whether increased toxin gene expression in response to CO$\sb2$/bicarbonate and temperature is associated with increased atxA expression was investigated. I monitored steady state levels of atxA mRNA and AtxA protein in different growth conditions. The results indicate that expression of atxA is not influenced by CO$\sb2$/bicarbonate. Steady state levels of atxA mRNA and AtxA protein are higher at 37$\sp\circ$C than 28$\sp\circ$C. However, increased pag expression at high temperature can not be attributed directly to increased atxA expression.^ There is evidence that an additional factor(s) may be involved in regulation of pag. Expression of pag in strains overproducing AtxA is significantly decreased compared to the wildtype strain. A specific interaction of tagged-AtxA with the pag upstream DNA has not been demonstrated. Furthermore, four proteins in B. anthracis extract can be co-immunoprecipitated with tagged-AtxA. Amino-terminal sequence of one protein has been determined and found highly homologous to chaperonins of GroEL family. Studies are under way to determine if this GroEL-like protein interactions with AtxA and plays any role in atxA-mediated activation of toxin genes. ^

The impact of 1995--1996 health sector reforms in the effectiveness of malaria control program in the state of Orissa, India

Malaria poses a significant public health problem worldwide. The World Health Organization indicates that approximately 40% of the world's population and almost 85% of the population from the South–East Asian region is at risk of contracting malaria. India being the most populous country in the region, contributes the highest number of malaria cases and deaths attributed to malaria. Orissa is the state that has the highest number of malaria cases and deaths attributable to malaria. A secondary data analysis was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the World bank-assisted Malaria Action Program in the state of Orissa under the health sector reforms of 1995-96. The secondary analysis utilized the government of India's National Anti Malaria Management Information System's (NAMMIS) surveillance data and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS–I and NFHS–II) datasets to compare the malaria mortality and morbidity in the state between 1992-93 and 1998-99. Results revealed no effect of the intervention and indicated an increase of 2.18 times in malaria mortality between 1992-1999 and an increase of 1.53 times in malaria morbidity between 1992-93 and 1998-99 in the state. The difference in the age-adjusted malaria morbidity in the state between the time periods of 1992-93 and 1998-99 proved to be highly significant (t = 4.29 df=16, p<. 0005) whereas the difference between the increase of age-adjusted malaria morbidity during 1992-93 and 1998-99 between Orissa (with intervention) and Bihar (no intervention) proved to be non significant (t=.0471 df=16, p<.50). Factors such as underutilization of World Bank funds for the malaria control program, inadequate health care infrastructure, structural adjustment problems, poor management, poor financial management, parasite resistance to anti-malarial drugs, inadequate supply of drugs and staff shortages may have contributed to the failure of the program in the state.^

THE EFFECT OF PERSON-ENVIRONMENT FIT ON THE PSYCHOLOGICAL WELL-BEING OF PSYCHIATRIC AIDES WORKING IN A STATE HOSPITAL (COPING RESOURCES, SOCIAL SUPPORT, OCCUPATIONAL STRESS, LOCUS-OF-CONTROL)

This study addressed two purposes: (1) to determine the effect of person-environment fit on the psychological well-being of psychiatric aides and (2) to determine what role the coping resources of social support and control have on the above relationship. Two hundred and ten psychiatric aides working in a state hospital in Texas responded to a questionnaire pertaining to these issues.^ Person-environment fit, as a measure of occupational stress, was assessed through a modified version of the Work Environment Scale (WES). The WES subscales used in this study were: involvement, autonomy, job pressure, job clarity, and physical comfort. Psychological well-being was measured with the General Well-Being Schedule which was developed by the National Center for Health Statistics. Co-worker and supervisor support were measured through the WES and finally, control was assessed through Rotter's Locus of Control Scale.^ The results of this study were as follows: (1) all person-environment (p-e) dimensions appeared to have linear relationships with psychological well-being; (2) the p-e fit - well-being relationship did not appear to be confounded by demographic factors; (3) all p-e fit dimensions were significantly related to well-being except for autonomy; (4) p-e fit was more strongly related to well-being than the environmental measure alone; (5) supervisor support and non-work related support were found to have additive effects on the relationship between p-e fit and well-being, however no interaction or buffering effects were observed; (6) locus of control was found to have additive effects in the prediction of well-being and showed interactive effects with work pressure, involvement and physical comfort; and (7) the testing of the overall study model which included many of the components mentioned above yielded an R('2) = .27.^ Implications of these findings are discussed, future research suggested and applications proposed. ^

Control of the master virulence regulatory gene atxA in Bacillus anthracis

Transcription of the Bacillus anthracis structural genes for the anthrax toxin proteins and biosynthetic operon for capsule are positively regulated by AtxA, a transcription regulator with unique properties. Consistent with the role of atxA in virulence factor expression, a B. anthracis atxA-null mutant is avirulent in a murine model for anthrax. In batch culture, multiple signals impact atxA transcript levels, and the timing and steady state level of atxA expression is critical for optimal toxin and capsule synthesis. Despite the apparent complex control of atxA transcription, only one trans-acting protein, the transition state regulator AbrB, has been demonstrated to directly interact with the atxA promoter. The AbrB-binding site has been described, but additional cis-acting control sequences have not been defined. Using transcriptional lacZ fusions, electrophoretic mobility shift assays, and Western blot analysis, the cis-acting elements and trans-acting factors involved in regulation of atxA in B. anthracis strains containing either both virulence plasmids, pXO1 and pXO2, or only one plasmid, pXO1, were studied. This work demonstrates that atxA transcription from the major start site P1 is dependent upon a consensus sequence for the housekeeping sigma factor SigA, and an A+T-rich upstream element (UP-element) for RNA polymerase (RNAP). In addition, the data show that a trans-acting protein(s) other than AbrB negatively impacts atxA transcription when it binds specifically to a 9-bp palindrome within atxA promoter sequences located downstream of P1. Mutation of the palindrome prevents binding of the trans-acting protein(s) and results in a corresponding increase in AtxA and anthrax toxin production in a strain- and culture-dependent manner. The identity of the trans-acting repressor protein(s) remains elusive; however, phenotypes associated with mutation of the repressor binding site have revealed that the trans-acting repressor protein(s) indirectly controls B. anthracis development. Mutation of the repressor binding site results in misregulation and overexpression of AtxA in conditions conducive for development, leading to a marked sporulation defect that is both atxA- and pXO2-61-dependent. pXO2-61 is homologous to the sensor domain of sporulation sensor histidine kinases and is proposed to titrate an activating signal away from the sporulation phosphorelay when overexpressed by AtxA. These results indicate that AtxA is not only a master virulence regulator, but also a modulator of proper B. anthracis development. Also demonstrated in this work is the impact of the developmental regulators AbrB, Spo0A, and SigH on atxA expression and anthrax toxin production in a genetically incomplete (pXO1+, pXO2-) and genetically complete (pXO1+, pXO2+) strain background. AtxA and anthrax toxin production resulting from deletion of the developmental regulators are strain-dependent suggesting that factors on pXO2 are involved in control of atxA. The only developmental deletion mutant that resulted in a prominent and consistent strain-independent increase in AtxA protein levels was an abrB-null mutant. As a result of increased AtxA levels, there is early and increased production of anthrax toxins in an abrB-null mutant. In addition, the abrB-null mutant exhibited an increase in virulence in a murine model for anthrax. In contrast, virulence of the atxA promoter mutant was unaffected in a murine model for anthrax despite the production of 5-fold more AtxA than the abrB-null mutant. These results imply that AtxA is not the only factor impacting pathogenesis in an abrB-null mutant. Overall, this work highlights the complex regulatory network that governs expression of atxA and provides an additional role for AtxA in B. anthracis development.

ATXA -dependent gene expression in Bacillus anthracis

The Bacillus anthracis toxin genes, cya, lef , and pag, can be viewed as a regulon, in which transcription of all three genes is activated in trans by the same regulatory gene, atxA, in response to the same signal, CO2. I determined that several phenotypes are associated with the atxA gene. In addition to being toxin-deficient, an atxA -null mutant grows poorly on minimal media and sporulates early compared to the parent strain. Furthermore, an atxA-null mutant has an altered 2-D gel protein profile. I used a genetic approach to find additional atxA-regulated genes. Random transcriptional lacZ fusions were generated in B. anthracis using transposon Tn 917-LTV3. Transposon-insertion libraries were screened for mutants expressing increased β-galactosidase activity in 5% CO2. Introduction of an atxA-null mutation in these mutants revealed that 79% of the CO2-regulated fusions were also atxA-dependent. DNA sequence analysis of transposon insertion sites in mutants carrying CO 2/atxA-regulated fusions revealed ten mutants harboring transposon insertions in loci distinct from the toxin genes. The majority of the tcr (toxin co-regulated) loci mapped within the pXO1 pathogenicity island. These results indicate a clear association of atxA with CO2-enhanced gene expression in B. anthracis and provide evidence that atxA regulates genes other than the structural genes for the anthrax toxin proteins. ^ Characterization of one tcr locus revealed a new regulatory gene, pagR. The pagR gene (300 nt) is located downstream of pag. pagR is cotranscribed with pag and is responsible for autogenous control of the operon. pagR also represses expression of cya and lef. Repression of toxin gene expression by pagR may be mediated by atxA. The steady state level of atxA mRNA is increased in a pagR mutant. Recombinant PagR protein purified from Escherichia coli did not specifically bind the promoter regions of pagA or atxA. An unidentified factor in B. anthracis crude extracts, however, was able to bind the atxA promoter in the absence of PagR or AtxA. These investigations increase our knowledge of virulence regulation in B. anthracis and ultimately will lead to a better understanding of anthrax disease. ^