NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

Rescue from apoptosis in early (CD34 selected) versus late (CD34 unselected) human hematopoietic cells by VLA-4 and VCAM-1 dependent adhesion to bone marrow stromal cells

The interaction of hematopoietic precursor cell with bone marrow stromal cells is assumed to be important to the survival of hematopoietic precursor cells during hematopoietic cell long-term culture. Early hematopoietic stem cells are preferentially found within the stromal adherent cell fraction in primary long-term bone marrow cultures. The purpose of this dissertation was to understand the molecular mechanisms that govern these interactions for the regulation of survival and proliferation of early versus late hematopoietic cells.^ Monoclonal antibodies to the VLA-4 recognize the alpha4 beta1 integrin receptor on human hematopoietic cells. This monoclonal antibody blocks the adhesion between early hematopoietic progenitor cells (CD34 selected cells) and stromal cells when added to cultures of these cells. Addition of the VLA-4 monoclonal antibody to cultures of stromal cells and CD34 selected cells was shown to induce apoptosis of CD34 selected cells in these CD34 selected cell/stromal cell cocultures, as measured by the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase (TdT)-mediated dUTP-biotin nick end-labeling method. In contrast to these experiments with early hematopoietic progenitor cells (CD34+), the level of adhesion between more differentiated cells (unfractionated hematopoietic cells) and stromal cells was not significantly altered by addition of the anti-VLA-4 monoclonal antibody. Similarly, the level of apoptosis of unfractionated hematopoietic cells was not significantly increased by the addition of anti-VLA-4 monoclonal antibody to cultures of the latter cells with stromal cells. The binding of the unfractionated cells is less than that of the CD34 selected. Since there is no difference between the alpha4 beta1 integrin expression level of the early and late myeloid cells, there may be a difference in the functional state of the integrin between the early and late myeloid cells. We also show that CD34+ selected precursor cells proliferate at a higher rate when these cells are plated on recombinant VCAM-1 molecules. These data indicate that the alpha4beta1 integrin receptor (VLA-4) plays a central role in the apoptosis rescue function which results from the anchorage-dependent growth of the CD34 selected early hematopoietic cells on stromal cells. The data suggest that these apoptosis rescue pathways have less significance as the cells mature and become anchorage-independent in their growth. These data should assist in the design of systems for the ex vivo proliferation and transduction of early hematopoietic cells for genetic therapy. ^

Blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal changes in total cortex and subcortex, pain, reward, and vigilance regions during mechanical pressure pain after morphine administration

Morphine is the most common clinical choice in the management of severe pain. Although the molecular mechanisms of morphine have already been characterized, the cerebral circuits by which it attenuates the sensation of pain have not yet been studied in humans. The objective of this two-arm (morphine versus placebo), between-subjects study was to examine whether morphine affects pain via pain-related cortical circuits, but also via reward regions that relate to the motivational state, as well as prefrontal regions that relate to vigilance as a result of morphine's sedative effects. Cortical activity was measured by the blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal changes using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). ^ The novelty of this study is at three levels: (i) to develop a methodology that will assess the average BOLD signal across subjects for the pain, reward, and vigilance cortical systems; (ii) to examine whether the reward and/or sedative effects of morphine are contributing factors to cortical regions associated with the motivational state and vigilance; and (iii) to propose a neuroanatomical model related to the opioid-sensitive effects of reward and sedation as a function of cortical activity related to pain in an effort to assess future analgesics. ^ Consistent with our hypotheses, our findings showed that the decrease in total pain-related volume activated between the post- and the pre-treatment morphine group was about 78%, while the post-treatment placebo group displayed only a 5% decrease when compared to pre-treatment levels of activation. The volume increase in reward regions was 451% in the post-treatment compared to the pre-treatment morphine condition. Finally, the volumetric decrease in vigilance regions was 63% in the posttreatment compared to the pre-treatment morphine condition. ^ These findings imply that changes in the blood flow of the reward and vigilance regions may be contributing factors in producing the analgesic effect under morphine administration. Future studies need to replicate this study in a higher resolution fMRI environment and to assess the proposed neuroanatomical model in patient populations. The necessity of pain research is apparent, since pain cuts across different diseases especially chronic ones, and thus, is recognized as a vital public health developing area. ^

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF FEDERAL FAMILY PLANNING POLICY: AN ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING STATE EXPENDITURES, FISCAL YEARS 1976-1981 (WOMEN, BUDGET, POPULATION)

The purpose of this study was to analyze the implementation of national family planning policy in the United States, which was embedded in four separate statutes during the period of study, Fiscal Years 1976-81. The design of the study utilized a modification of the Sabatier and Mazmanian framework for policy analysis, which defined implementation as the carrying out of statutory policy. The study was divided into two phases. The first part of the study compared the implementation of family planning policy by each of the pertinent statutes. The second part of the study identified factors that were associated with implementation of federal family planning policy within the context of block grants.^ Implemention was measured here by federal dollars spent for family planning, adjusted for the size of the respective state target populations. Expenditure data were collected from the Alan Guttmacher Institute and from each of the federal agencies having administrative authority for the four pertinent statutes, respectively. Data from the former were used for most of the analysis because they were more complete and more reliable.^ The first phase of the study tested the hypothesis that the coherence of a statute is directly related to effective implementation. Equity in the distribution of funds to the states was used to operationalize effective implementation. To a large extent, the results of the analysis supported the hypothesis. In addition to their theoretical significance, these findings were also significant for policymakers insofar they demonstrated the effectiveness of categorical legislation in implementing desired health policy.^ Given the current and historically intermittent emphasis on more state and less federal decision-making in health and human serives, the second phase of the study focused on state level factors that were associated with expenditures of social service block grant funds for family planning. Using the Sabatier-Mazmanian implementation model as a framework, many factors were tested. Those factors showing the strongest conceptual and statistical relationship to the dependent variable were used to construct a statistical model. Using multivariable regression analysis, this model was applied cross-sectionally to each of the years of the study. The most striking finding here was that the dominant determinants of the state spending varied for each year of the study (Fiscal Years 1976-1981). The significance of these results was that they provided empirical support of current implementation theory, showing that the dominant determinants of implementation vary greatly over time. ^

ATXA -dependent gene expression in Bacillus anthracis

The Bacillus anthracis toxin genes, cya, lef , and pag, can be viewed as a regulon, in which transcription of all three genes is activated in trans by the same regulatory gene, atxA, in response to the same signal, CO2. I determined that several phenotypes are associated with the atxA gene. In addition to being toxin-deficient, an atxA -null mutant grows poorly on minimal media and sporulates early compared to the parent strain. Furthermore, an atxA-null mutant has an altered 2-D gel protein profile. I used a genetic approach to find additional atxA-regulated genes. Random transcriptional lacZ fusions were generated in B. anthracis using transposon Tn 917-LTV3. Transposon-insertion libraries were screened for mutants expressing increased β-galactosidase activity in 5% CO2. Introduction of an atxA-null mutation in these mutants revealed that 79% of the CO2-regulated fusions were also atxA-dependent. DNA sequence analysis of transposon insertion sites in mutants carrying CO 2/atxA-regulated fusions revealed ten mutants harboring transposon insertions in loci distinct from the toxin genes. The majority of the tcr (toxin co-regulated) loci mapped within the pXO1 pathogenicity island. These results indicate a clear association of atxA with CO2-enhanced gene expression in B. anthracis and provide evidence that atxA regulates genes other than the structural genes for the anthrax toxin proteins. ^ Characterization of one tcr locus revealed a new regulatory gene, pagR. The pagR gene (300 nt) is located downstream of pag. pagR is cotranscribed with pag and is responsible for autogenous control of the operon. pagR also represses expression of cya and lef. Repression of toxin gene expression by pagR may be mediated by atxA. The steady state level of atxA mRNA is increased in a pagR mutant. Recombinant PagR protein purified from Escherichia coli did not specifically bind the promoter regions of pagA or atxA. An unidentified factor in B. anthracis crude extracts, however, was able to bind the atxA promoter in the absence of PagR or AtxA. These investigations increase our knowledge of virulence regulation in B. anthracis and ultimately will lead to a better understanding of anthrax disease. ^