Slope estimation in a parametric measurement error model: A simulation study

In regression analysis, covariate measurement error occurs in many applications. The error-prone covariates are often referred to as latent variables. In this proposed study, we extended the study of Chan et al. (2008) on recovering latent slope in a simple regression model to that in a multiple regression model. We presented an approach that applied the Monte Carlo method in the Bayesian framework to the parametric regression model with the measurement error in an explanatory variable. The proposed estimator applied the conditional expectation of latent slope given the observed outcome and surrogate variables in the multiple regression models. A simulation study was presented showing that the method produces estimator that is efficient in the multiple regression model, especially when the measurement error variance of surrogate variable is large.^

Using spatial linear models with SAR and CAR structure to examine Texas lung cancer incidence rates

Scholars have found that socioeconomic status was one of the key factors that influenced early-stage lung cancer incidence rates in a variety of regions. This thesis examined the association between median household income and lung cancer incidence rates in Texas counties. A total of 254 individual counties in Texas with corresponding lung cancer incidence rates from 2004 to 2008 and median household incomes in 2006 were collected from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance System. A simple linear model and spatial linear models with two structures, Simultaneous Autoregressive Structure (SAR) and Conditional Autoregressive Structure (CAR), were used to link median household income and lung cancer incidence rates in Texas. The residuals of the spatial linear models were analyzed with Moran's I and Geary's C statistics, and the statistical results were used to detect similar lung cancer incidence rate clusters and disease patterns in Texas.^

Molecular basis of Corynebacterium diphtheriae virulence and infection in the Caenorhabditis elegans model host

Corynebacterium diphtheriae is the causative agent of cutaneous and pharyngeal diphtheria in humans. While lethality is certainly caused by diphtheria toxin, corynebacterial colonization may primarily require proteinaceous fibers called pili, which mediate adherence to specific tissues. The type strain of C. diphtheriae possesses three distinct pilus structures, namely the SpaA, SpaD, and SpaH-type pili, which are encoded by three distinct pilus gene clusters. The pilus is assembled onto the bacterial peptidoglycan by a specific transpeptidase enzyme called sortase. Although the SpaA pili are shown to be specific for pharyngeal cells in vitro, little is known about functions of the three pili in bacterial pathogenesis. This is mainly due to lack of in vivo models of corynebacterial infection. As an alternative to mouse models as mice do not have functional receptors for diphtheria toxin, in this study I use Caenorhabditis elegans as a model host for C. diphtheriae. A simple C. elegans model would be beneficial in determining the specific role of each pilus-type and the literature suggests that C. elegans infection model can be used to study a variety of bacterial species giving insight into bacterial virulence and host-pathogen interactions. My study examines the hypothesis that pili and toxin are major virulent determinants of C. diphtheriae in the C. elegans model host.

The physical map of {\it Escherichia coli\/} K-12 strain MG1655: Construction, comparison with other strains and implications for mechanisms controlling oligonucleotide frequency

Complete NotI, SfiI, XbaI and BlnI cleavage maps of Escherichia coli K-12 strain MG1655 were constructed. Techniques used included: CHEF pulsed field gel electrophoresis; transposon mutagenesis; fragment hybridization to the ordered $\lambda$ library of Kohara et al.; fragment and cosmid hybridization to Southern blots; correlation of fragments and cleavage sites with EcoMap, a sequence-modified version of the genomic restriction map of Kohara et al.; and correlation of cleavage sites with DNA sequence databases. In all, 105 restriction sites were mapped and correlated with the EcoMap coordinate system.^ NotI, SfiI, XbaI and BlnI restriction patterns of five commonly used E. coli K-12 strains were compared to those of MG1655. The variability between strains, some of which are separated by numerous steps of mutagenic treatment, is readily detectable by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. A model is presented to account for the difference between the strains on the basis of simple insertions, deletions, and in one case an inversion. Insertions and deletions ranged in size from 1 kb to 86 kb. Several of the larger features have previously been characterized and some of the smaller rearrangements can potentially account for previously reported genetic features of these strains.^ Some aspects of the frequency and distribution of NotI, SfiI, XbaI and BlnI cleavage sites were analyzed using a method based on Markov chain theory. Overlaps of Dam and Dcm methylase sites with XbaI and SfiI cleavage sites were examined. The one XbaI-Dam overlap in the database is in accord with the expected frequency of this overlap. The occurrence of certain types of SfiI-Dcm overlaps are overrepresented. Of the four subtypes of SfiI-Dcm overlap, only one has a partial inhibitory effect on the activity of SfiI. Recognition sites for all four enzymes are rarer than expected based on oligonucleotide frequency data, with this effect being much stronger for XbaI and BlnI than for NotI and SfiI. The latter two enzyme sites are rare mainly due to apparent negative selection against GGCC (both) and CGGCCG (NotI). The former two enzyme sites are rare mainly due to effects of the VSP repair system on certain di-tri- and tetranucleotides, most notably CTAG. Models are proposed to explain several of the anomalies of oligonucleotide distribution in E. coli, and the biological significance of the systems that produce these anomalies is discussed. ^

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinsonism-dementia complex of Guam: Descriptive epidemiology, secular trends, and birth cohort effects on incidence, 1950--1989

This study describes the patterns of occurrence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and parkinsonism-dementia complex (PDC) of Guam during 1950-1989. Both ALS and PDC occur with high frequency among the indigenous Chamorro population, first recognized in the early 1950's. Reports in the early 1980's indicated that both ALS and PDC were disappearing, due to a purported reduction in exposure to harmful environmental factors as a result of the dramatic changes in lifestyle that took place after World War II. However, this study provides compelling evidence that ALS and PDC have not disappeared on Guam and that rates for both are higher during 1980-1989 than previously reported.^ The patterns of occurrence for both ALS and PDC overlap in most respects: (1) incidence and mortality are decreasing; (2) median age at onset is increasing; (3) males are at increased risk for developing disease; (4) risk is higher for those residing in the south compared to the non-south; and (5) age-specific incidence is decreasing over time except in the oldest age groups.^ Age-specific incidence of ALS and PDC, separately and together, is generally higher for cohorts born before 1920 than for those born after 1920. A significant birth cohort effect on the incidence of PDC for the 1906-1915 birth cohort was found, but not for ALS and for ALS and PDC together. Whether or not a cohort effect, period effect, or both are associated with incidence of ALS and PDC cannot be determined from the data currently available and will require additional follow-up of individuals born after 1920.^ The epidemiological data amassed over this 40-year period provide evidence that supports an environmental exposure model for disease occurrence as opposed to a simple genetic or infectious disease model. Whether neurodegenerative disease in this population occurs as a consequence of a single exposure or is explained by a multifactorial model such as a genetic predisposition with some environmental interaction is yet to be determined. However, descriptive studies such as this can provide clues concerning timing and location of potential adverse exposures but cannot determine etiology, underscoring the urgent need for analytic studies of ALS and PDC to further investigate existing etiologic hypotheses and to test new hypotheses. ^

AUGMENTATION OF RECONSTITUTION OF GUT ASSOCIATED LYMPHOID TISSUE IN THE SYNGENEIC MURINE BONE MARROW TRANSPLANTATION MODEL

Gut was studied as a prototypical mucosal membrane in the murine BDF-1 syngeneic bone marrow transplant model. Measures of jejunal intraepithelial lymphocytes (IELs) and crypt cells were obtained by standard techniques and a method of quantifying gut lamina propria plasma cells (PCs) was developed. The degree of ablation of gut PCs and IELs after 900 rads total body irradiation with ('60)Co, and their repopulation effected by transplantation with 2.0 x 10('5) or 1.0 x 10('6) bone marrow cells demonstrated a prolonged period of profound depression in population levels of these cells which was not reflected by the extent of damage sustained to the epithelium. Differences in the depopulation and recovery of gut PCs and IELs revealed a tendency towards initial differentiation of effector cells. A positive dose response to high bone marrow cell innocula was obtained. Subsequent studies determined that gut IEL and PC repopulation was potentiated by the addition of IELs or buffy coat cells (BCs) to the bone marrow transplant. A method of isolating 1.4 - 4.0 x 10('7) viable IELs per gram of murine small bowel was devised employing intralumenal hyaluronidase digestion of the epithelial layer and centrifugation of the resulting suspension through discontinuous Percoll gradients. Irradiated mice received 2.0 x 10('5) bone marrow cells along with an equal number of IELs or BCs. The extent and duration of depression of numbers of IELs and PCs was markedly reduced by the addition of the IEL isolate to the transplantation innocula, and to a lesser degree by the addition of BCs. The augmentation of repopuation far exceeded that expected by simple lodging of cells suggesting that the additionally transplanted cells contained a subpopulation of mucosal membrane lymphoid stem cells or helper cells. Correlation analysis of PC versus IEL levels suggests a possible feedback mechanism governing the relative size of their populations. Normal ratios of IgA, IgM, and IgG bearing PCs was maintained post transplantation with all of the regimens. ^

Mixed effects model in negative exponential curve

Despite many researches on development in education and psychology, not often is the methodology tested with real data. A major barrier to test the growth model is that the design of study includes repeated observations and the nature of the growth is nonlinear. The repeat measurements on a nonlinear model require sophisticated statistical methods. In this study, we present mixed effects model in a negative exponential curve to describe the development of children's reading skills. This model can describe the nature of the growth on children's reading skills and account for intra-individual and inter-individual variation. We also apply simple techniques including cross-validation, regression, and graphical methods to determine the most appropriate curve for data, to find efficient initial values of parameters, and to select potential covariates. We illustrate with an example that motivated this research: a longitudinal study of academic skills from grade 1 to grade 12 in Connecticut public schools. ^

Assessment of the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification by using techniques of mathematical statistics and simulation study

Objectives. This paper seeks to assess the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification in a variety of situations. ^ Methods and results. The effect of misspecification in regression can be approximated by evaluating the correlation between the correct specification and the misspecification of the outcome variable (Harris 2010).In this paper, three misspecified models (linear, categorical and fractional polynomial) were considered. In the first section, the mathematical method of calculating the correlation between correct and misspecified models with simple mathematical forms was derived and demonstrated. In the second section, data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007-2008) were used to examine such correlations. Our study shows that comparing to linear or categorical models, the fractional polynomial models, with the higher correlations, provided a better approximation of the true relationship, which was illustrated by LOESS regression. In the third section, we present the results of simulation studies that demonstrate overall misspecification in regression can produce marked decreases in power with small sample sizes. However, the categorical model had greatest power, ranging from 0.877 to 0.936 depending on sample size and outcome variable used. The power of fractional polynomial model was close to that of linear model, which ranged from 0.69 to 0.83, and appeared to be affected by the increased degrees of freedom of this model.^ Conclusion. Correlations between alternative model specifications can be used to provide a good approximation of the effect on statistical power of misspecification when the sample size is large. When model specifications have known simple mathematical forms, such correlations can be calculated mathematically. Actual public health data from NHANES 2007-2008 were used as examples to demonstrate the situations with unknown or complex correct model specification. Simulation of power for misspecified models confirmed the results based on correlation methods but also illustrated the effect of model degrees of freedom on power.^

Assessing and applying evidence-based interventions at the community level in India as a model policy to reduce neonatal mortality rates in Nigeria

Background. The United Nations' Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 aims for a two-thirds reduction in death rates for children under the age of five by 2015. The greatest risk of death is in the first week of life, yet most of these deaths can be prevented by such simple interventions as improved hygiene, exclusive breastfeeding, and thermal care. The percentage of deaths in Nigeria that occur in the first month of life make up 28% of all deaths under five years, a statistic that has remained unchanged despite various child health policies. This paper will address the challenges of reducing the neonatal mortality rate in Nigeria by examining the literature regarding efficacy of home-based, newborn care interventions and policies that have been implemented successfully in India. ^ Methods. I compared similarities and differences between India and Nigeria using qualitative descriptions and available quantitative data of various health indicators. The analysis included identifying policy-related factors and community approaches contributing to India's newborn survival rates. Databases and reference lists of articles were searched for randomized controlled trials of community health worker interventions shown to reduce neonatal mortality rates. ^ Results. While it appears that Nigeria spends more money than India on health per capita ($136 vs. $132, respectively) and as percent GDP (5.8% vs. 4.2%, respectively), it still lags behind India in its neonatal, infant, and under five mortality rates (40 vs. 32 deaths/1000 live births, 88 vs. 48 deaths/1000 live births, 143 vs. 63 deaths/1000 live births, respectively). Both countries have comparably low numbers of healthcare providers. Unlike their counterparts in Nigeria, Indian community health workers receive training on how to deliver postnatal care in the home setting and are monetarily compensated. Gender-related power differences still play a role in the societal structure of both countries. A search of randomized controlled trials of home-based newborn care strategies yielded three relevant articles. Community health workers trained to educate mothers and provide a preventive package of interventions involving clean cord care, thermal care, breastfeeding promotion, and danger sign recognition during multiple postnatal visits in rural India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan reduced neonatal mortality rates by 54%, 34%, and 15–20%, respectively. ^ Conclusion. Access to advanced technology is not necessary to reduce neonatal mortality rates in resource-limited countries. To address the urgency of neonatal mortality, countries with weak health systems need to start at the community level and invest in cost-effective, evidence-based newborn care interventions that utilize available human resources. While more randomized controlled studies are urgently needed, the current available evidence of models of postnatal care provision demonstrates that home-based care and health education provided by community health workers can reduce neonatal mortality rates in the immediate future.^