9 resultados para Short-term Forecasting

em DigitalCommons@The Texas Medical Center


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The tail-withdrawal circuit of Aplysia provides a useful model system for investigating synaptic dynamics. Sensory neurons within the circuit manifest several forms of synaptic plasticity. Here, we developed a model of the circuit and investigated the ways in which depression (DEP) and potentiation (POT) contributed to information processing. DEP limited the amount of motor neuron activity that could be elicited by the monosynaptic pathway alone. POT within the monosynaptic pathway did not compensate for DEP. There was, however, a synergistic interaction between POT and the polysynaptic pathway. This synergism extended the dynamic range of the network, and the interplay between DEP and POT made the circuit responded preferentially to long-duration, low-frequency inputs.

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The tail-withdrawal circuit of Aplysia provides a useful model system for investigating synaptic dynamics. Sensory neurons within the circuit manifest several forms of synaptic plasticity. Here, we developed a model of the circuit and investigated the ways in which depression (DEP) and potentiation (POT) contributed to information processing. DEP limited the amount of motor neuron activity that could be elicited by the monosynaptic pathway alone. POT within the monosynaptic pathway did not compensate for DEP. There was, however, a synergistic interaction between POT and the polysynaptic pathway. This synergism extended the dynamic range of the network, and the interplay between DEP and POT made the circuit responded preferentially to long-duration, low-frequency inputs.

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Plasticity at the connections between sensory neurons and their follower cells in Aplysia has been used extensively as a model system to examine mechanisms of simple forms of learning, such as sensitization. Sensitization is induced, at least in part, by the transmitter serotonin (5-HT) and expressed in several forms, including facilitation of sensorimotor connections. Spike broadening has been believed to be a key mechanism underlying facilitation of nondepressed synapses. Previously, this broadening was believed to be dependent primarily on cAMP/protein kinase A (PKA)-mediated reduction of a noninactivating, relatively voltage-independent K$\sp{+}$ current termed the S-K$\sp+$ current (I$\sb{\rm K{,}S}$). Recent evidence, however, suggests that 5-HT-induced somatic spike broadening is composed of at least two components: a cAMP-dependent, rapidly developing component and a cAMP-independent, slowly developing component.^ Phorbol esters, activators of protein kinase C (PKC), mimicked the cAMP-independent component of 5-HT-induced broadening. Staurosporine, which inhibits PKC, had little effect on the rapidly developing component of 5-HT-induced broadening, but inhibited significantly the slowly developing component. These results suggest that PKC is involved in the cAMP-independent component of 5-HT-induced broadening. The membrane currents responsible for the slowly developing component of broadening were examined. Activation of PKC mimicked, and partially occluded, 5-HT-induced modulation of membrane currents above 0 mV, where a voltage-dependent K$\sp+$ current (I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$) is significantly activated. This modulation was complex because it was associated with a reduction in the magnitude of I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$, as well as a slowing of both activation and inactivation kinetics of I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$. These results support the hypothesis that PKC modulates I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$ and that this modulation contributes to the slowly developing component of 5-HT-induced broadening. Based on these results and others, a new scheme for 5-HT-induced spike broadening is proposed in which the modulatory effects are mediated via two second messenger/protein kinase systems converging and diverging on multiple ionic conductances.^ The relationship between spike broadening and synaptic facilitation was also examined. Pharmacological reduction of I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$ by low concentrations of 4-aminopyridine (4-AP) led to spike broadening and facilitation of the nondepressed sensorimotor connections, indicating that spike broadening via the reduction of I$\sc{K,V}$ can facilitate the synaptic connection. Further analyses, however, revealed that 4-AP-induced facilitation has qualitative differences from 5-HT- and PKC-induced facilitation. These results suggest that 5-HT- and PKC-induced facilitation of nondepressed synapses is mediated, at least in part, by spike-duration independent (SDI) processes. Under certain conditions, the PKC inhibitor, staurosporine, significantly inhibited the 5-HT-induced facilitation of sensorimotor connections.^ Finally, it was found that activation of PKC increased a basal level of cAMP and that PKC caused desensitization of the 5-HT receptor, which may be a possible negative feedback mechanism through which an extracellular ligand, 5-HT, is regulated. These results suggest that these two second messenger/protein kinase pathways can interact in the sensory neuron. Thus, neuronal plasticity that may contribute to learning and memory appears to involve several complex and interactive processes. ^

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It has been hypothesized that results from the short term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Although toxicologic test systems have become increasingly refined, to date, no investigator has been able to provide qualitative or quantitative methods which would support the use of short term tests in this capacity.^ Historically, the validity of the short term tests have been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used in the setting of priorities. In contrast, the goal of this research was to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation.^ Chemical carcinogens were selected from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC). Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on fifty-two chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The relative potency framework allows for the standardization of data "relative" to a reference compound. To avoid any bias associated with the choice of the reference compound, fourteen different compounds were used.^ The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). The results were statistically significant (p $<$.05) for data standardized to thirteen of the fourteen reference compounds. Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short term test systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may be human carcinogens. ^

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This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

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Two respirable coal fly ash samples ((LESSTHEQ) 3(mu)m), one from a pressurized fluidized-bed combustion miniplant and one from a conventional combustion power plant, were investigated for physical properties, chemical composition and biological activity. Electron microscopy illustrated irregularity in fluidized-bed combustion fly ash and sphericity in conventional combustion fly ash. Elemental analysis of these samples showed differences in trace elements. Both fly ash samples were toxic in rabbit alveolar macrophage and Chinese hamster ovary cell systems in vitro. The macrophages were more sensitive to toxicity of fly ash than the ovary cells. For measuring the cytotoxicity of fly ash, the most sensitive parameters were adenosine triphosphate in the alveolar macrophage system and viability index in the hamster ovary system. Intact fluidized-bed combustion fly-ash particles showed mutagenicity only in strains TA98 and TA1538 without metabolic activation in the Ames Salmonella assay. No mutagenicity was detected in bioassay of conventional combustion fly ash particles. Solvent extraction yielded more mass from fluidized-bed combustion fly ash than from conventional combustion fly ash. The extracts of fluidized-bed combustion fly ash showed higher mutagenic activity than conventional combustion fly ash. These samples contained direct-acting, frameshift mutagens.^ Fly ash samples collected from the same fluidized-bed source by cyclones, a fabric filter, and a electrostatic precipitator at various temperatures were compared for particle size, toxicity, and mutagenicity. Results demonstrated that the biological activity of coal fly ash were affected by the collection site, device, and temperature.^ Coal fly ash vapor-coated with 1-nitropyrene was developed as a model system to study the bioavailability and recovery of nitroaromatic compounds in fly ash. The effects of vapor deposition on toxicity and mutagenicity of fly ash were examined. The nitropyrene coating did not significantly alter the ash's cytotoxicity. Nitropyrene was bioavailable in the biological media, and a significant percentage was not recovered after the coated fly ash was cultured with alveolar macrophages. 1-Nitropyrene loss increased as the number of macrophages was increased, suggesting that the macrophages are capable of metabolizing or binding 1-nitropyrene present in coal fly ash. ^

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This dissertation develops and tests through path analysis a theoretical model to explain how socioeconomic, socioenvironmental, and biologic risk factors simultaneously influence each other to further produce short-term, depressed growth in preschoolers. Three areas of risk factors were identified: child's proximal environment, maturational stage, and biological vulnerability. The theoretical model represented both the conceptual framework and the nature and direction of the hypotheses. Original research completed in 1978-80 and in 1982 provided the background data. It was analyzed first by nested-analysis of variance, followed by path analysis. The study provided evidence of mild iron deficiency and gastrointestinal symptomatology in the etiology of depressed, short-term weight gain. Also, there was evidence suggesting that family resources for material and social survival significantly contribute to the variability of short-term, age-adjusted growth velocity. These results challenge current views of unifocal intervention, whether for prevention or control. For policy formulations, though, the mechanisms underlying any set of interlaced relationships must be decoded. Theoretical formulations here proposed should be reassessed under a more extensive research design. It is suggested that studies should be undertaken where social changes are actually in progress; otherwise, nutritional epidemiology in developing countries operates somewhere between social reality and research concepts, with little grasp of its real potential. The study stresses that there is a connection between substantive theory, empirical observation, and policy issues. ^

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Aldgate, J. and Bradley, M. (1999). Supporting families through short-term fostering. London: The Stationery Office. This essay reviews a British qualitative study of short-term foster care from the perspectives of birth parents, children, foster parents, and social workers. Respondents highlighted the value of short-term foster care as a family support service and also offered many recommendations for improving service delivery. The study provides useful implications for restructuring child welfare services in the United States and for promoting cross-national collaboration in future research activities in the area of child and family services.

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Undergraduate research programs have been used as a tool to attract and retain student interest in science careers. This study evaluates the short and long-term benefits of a Summer Science Internship (SSI) at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston– School of Public Health – in Brownsville, Texas, by analyzing survey data from alumni. Questions assessing short-term program impact were aimed at three main topics, student: satisfaction with program, self-efficacy for science after completing the program, and perceived benefits. Long-term program impact was assessed by looking at student school attendance and college majors along with perceived links between SSI and future college plans. Students reported high program satisfaction, a significant increase in science self-efficacy and high perceived benefits. At the time data were collected for the study, one-hundred percent of alumni were enrolled in school (high school or college). The majority of students indicated they were interested in completing a science major/career, heavily influenced by their participation in the program.^