Comparison of machine learning approaches and statistical methods for estimation of airborne chemical exposures

Accurate quantitative estimation of exposure using retrospective data has been one of the most challenging tasks in the exposure assessment field. To improve these estimates, some models have been developed using published exposure databases with their corresponding exposure determinants. These models are designed to be applied to reported exposure determinants obtained from study subjects or exposure levels assigned by an industrial hygienist, so quantitative exposure estimates can be obtained. ^ In an effort to improve the prediction accuracy and generalizability of these models, and taking into account that the limitations encountered in previous studies might be due to limitations in the applicability of traditional statistical methods and concepts, the use of computer science- derived data analysis methods, predominantly machine learning approaches, were proposed and explored in this study. ^ The goal of this study was to develop a set of models using decision trees/ensemble and neural networks methods to predict occupational outcomes based on literature-derived databases, and compare, using cross-validation and data splitting techniques, the resulting prediction capacity to that of traditional regression models. Two cases were addressed: the categorical case, where the exposure level was measured as an exposure rating following the American Industrial Hygiene Association guidelines and the continuous case, where the result of the exposure is expressed as a concentration value. Previously developed literature-based exposure databases for 1,1,1 trichloroethane, methylene dichloride and, trichloroethylene were used. ^ When compared to regression estimations, results showed better accuracy of decision trees/ensemble techniques for the categorical case while neural networks were better for estimation of continuous exposure values. Overrepresentation of classes and overfitting were the main causes for poor neural network performance and accuracy. Estimations based on literature-based databases using machine learning techniques might provide an advantage when they are applied to other methodologies that combine `expert inputs' with current exposure measurements, like the Bayesian Decision Analysis tool. The use of machine learning techniques to more accurately estimate exposures from literature-based exposure databases might represent the starting point for the independence from the expert judgment.^

Sensory regulation of network components underlying ciliary locomotion in Hermissenda.

Ciliary locomotion in the nudibranch mollusk Hermissenda is modulated by the visual and graviceptive systems. Components of the neural network mediating ciliary locomotion have been identified including aggregates of polysensory interneurons that receive monosynaptic input from identified photoreceptors and efferent neurons that activate cilia. Illumination produces an inhibition of type I(i) (off-cell) spike activity, excitation of type I(e) (on-cell) spike activity, decreased spike activity in type III(i) inhibitory interneurons, and increased spike activity of ciliary efferent neurons. Here we show that pairs of type I(i) interneurons and pairs of type I(e) interneurons are electrically coupled. Neither electrical coupling or synaptic connections were observed between I(e) and I(i) interneurons. Coupling is effective in synchronizing dark-adapted spontaneous firing between pairs of I(e) and pairs of I(i) interneurons. Out-of-phase burst activity, occasionally observed in dark-adapted and light-adapted pairs of I(e) and I(i) interneurons, suggests that they receive synaptic input from a common presynaptic source or sources. Rhythmic activity is typically not a characteristic of dark-adapted, light-adapted, or light-evoked firing of type I interneurons. However, burst activity in I(e) and I(i) interneurons may be elicited by electrical stimulation of pedal nerves or generated at the offset of light. Our results indicate that type I interneurons can support the generation of both rhythmic activity and changes in tonic firing depending on sensory input. This suggests that the neural network supporting ciliary locomotion may be multifunctional. However, consistent with the nonmuscular and nonrhythmic characteristics of visually modulated ciliary locomotion, type I interneurons exhibit changes in tonic activity evoked by illumination.

Spatial and temporal aspects of synaptic plasticity

The notion that changes in synaptic efficacy underlie learning and memory processes is now widely accepted even if definitive proof of the synaptic plasticity and memory hypothesis is still lacking. When learning occurs, patterns of neural activity representing the occurrence of events cause changes in the strength of synaptic connections within the brain. Reactivation of these altered connections constitutes the experience of memory for these events and for other events with which they may be associated. These statements summarize a long-standing theory of memory formation that we refer to as the synaptic plasticity and memory hypothesis. Since activity-dependent synaptic plasticity is induced at appropriate synapses during memory formation, and is both necessary and sufficient for the information storage, we can speculate that a methodological study of the synapse will help us understand the mechanism of learning. Random events underlie a wide range of biological processes as diverse as genetic drift and molecular diffusion, regulation of gene expression and neural network function. Additionally spatial variability may be important especially in systems with nonlinear behavior. Since synapse is a complex biological system we expect that stochasticity as well as spatial gradients of different enzymes may be significant for induction of plasticity. ^ In that study we address the question "how important spatial and temporal aspects of synaptic plasticity may be". We developed methods to justify our basic assumptions and examined the main sources of variability of calcium dynamics. Among them, a physiological method to estimate the number of postsynaptic receptors as well as a hybrid algorithm for simulating postsynaptic calcium dynamics. Additionally we studied how synaptic geometry may enhance any possible spatial gradient of calcium dynamics and how that spatial variability affect plasticity curves. Finally, we explored the potential of structural synaptic plasticity to provide a metaplasticity mechanism specific for the synapse. ^