Interim analysis of clinical trials: Simulation studies of fractional Brownian motion

Interim clinical trial monitoring procedures were motivated by ethical and economic considerations. Classical Brownian motion (Bm) techniques for statistical monitoring of clinical trials were widely used. Conditional power argument and α-spending function based boundary crossing probabilities are popular statistical hypothesis testing procedures under the assumption of Brownian motion. However, it is not rare that the assumptions of Brownian motion are only partially met for trial data. Therefore, I used a more generalized form of stochastic process, called fractional Brownian motion (fBm), to model the test statistics. Fractional Brownian motion does not hold Markov property and future observations depend not only on the present observations but also on the past ones. In this dissertation, we simulated a wide range of fBm data, e.g., H = 0.5 (that is, classical Bm) vs. 0.5< H <1, with treatment effects vs. without treatment effects. Then the performance of conditional power and boundary-crossing based interim analyses were compared by assuming that the data follow Bm or fBm. Our simulation study suggested that the conditional power or boundaries under fBm assumptions are generally higher than those under Bm assumptions when H > 0.5 and also matches better with the empirical results. ^

GMZ27 is a new organic arsenic derivative with anti-leukemic activity, via the induction of reactive oxygen species through NADPH oxidase and mitochondrial pathway that lead to leukemia cell apoptosis

Arsenic trioxide (ATO) is an inorganic arsenic derivative that is very effective against relapsed acute promyelocytic leukemia. It is being investigated as therapy for other cancers, but the risk/benefit ratio is questionable due to significant side effects. In contrast, organic arsenic derivatives (OAD) are known to be much less toxic than ATO. Based on high activity, we selected GMZ27 (dipropil-s-glycerol arsenic) for further study and have confirmed its potent activity against human acute leukemia cell lines. This anti-leukemic activity is significantly higher than that of ATO. Both in vivo and in vitro tests have shown that GMZ27 is significantly less toxic to normal bone marrow mononuclear cells and normal mice. Therefore, further study of the biological activity of GMZ27 was undertaken. ^ GMZ27, in contrast to ATO, can only marginally induce maturation of leukemic cells. GMZ27 has no effect on cell cycle. The anti-leukemic activity of GMZ27 against acute myeolocytic leukemia cells is not dependent upon degradation of PML-RARα fusion protein. GMZ27 causes dissipation of mitochondrial transmembrane potential, cleavage of caspase 9, caspase 3 activation. Further studies indicated that GMZ27 induces intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, and modification of intracellular ROS levels had profound effect on its potential to inhibit proliferation of leukemic cells. Therefore ROS production plays a major role in the anti-leukemic activity of GMZ27. ^ To identify how GMZ27 induces ROS, our studies focused on mitochondria and NADPH oxidase. The results indicated that the source of ROS generation induced by GMZ27 is dose dependent. At the low dose (0.3 uM) GMZ27 induces NADPH oxidase activity that leads to late ROS production, while at the high dose (2.0 uM) mitochondria function is disrupted and early ROS production is induced leading to dramatic cell apoptosis. Therefore, late, ROS production can be detected in mitochondria are depleted Rho-0 cells. Our work not only delineates a major biologic pathway for the anti-leukemic activity of GMZ27, but also discusses possible ways of enhancing the effect by the co-application of NADPH oxidase activator. Further study of this interaction may lead to achieving better therapeutic index.^