Factors associated with HPV16 status and survival among patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx

Background: Squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx (SCCOP) is characterized by local tumor aggressiveness, high recurrence rates, a high incidence of second primary tumors, and medical comorbidities. Significant trends in demographic and clinical characteristics as well as survival among SCCOP patients have been observed over time, likely owing to the changing etiology of the disease. Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) infection is associated with a significant proportion of these cancers. Biomarkers that may aid in identifying patients that are at higher risk of recurrence and death are important so that these patients may be followed more closely to improve their quality of life. ^ Study population and methods: The retrospective review (Specific Aim 2) included 3891 newly diagnosed, previously untreated patients presenting to our institution between 1955 and 2004. A total of 2299 patients treated at our institution were included in survival and recursive partitioning analysis. The prospective cohort study (Specific Aim 3) included 266 patients presenting to our institution between January 2006 and September 2009. ^ Results: The results from the retrospective review showed that over time, patients presented at younger ages and were more likely to have base of tongue/tonsil tumors and to be never/former smokers and moreover survival improved significantly over time. In survival and recursive partitioning analyses, the TNM staging system was efficient in prognosticating patients prior to 1995. However, in the recent decade, the TNM staging system was completely inadequate. The factors having the greatest positive effect on overall survival since 1995 were those common to HPV-associated SCCOP. The results from the prospective cohort study indicate that patients with high nodal stage and those with late stage disease have increased levels of pretreatment serum HPV DNA. ^ Conclusions: We saw a distinct improvement in survival among SCCOP patients over the past 50 years at our institution. The main factors contributing to this were changes in clinical characteristics, in particular surrogates for HPV status. The current TNM staging system for SCCOP is inadequate and incorporation of HPV status (and perhaps smoking status) is encouraged. Furthermore, although pretreatment circulating levels of HPV DNA was associated with higher N category and overall disease stage, it has limited utility as a marker for recurrence among SCCOP patients.^

SURVIVAL PREDICTION FOR BRAIN TUMOR PATIENTS USING GENE EXPRESSION DATA

Brain tumor is one of the most aggressive types of cancer in humans, with an estimated median survival time of 12 months and only 4% of the patients surviving more than 5 years after disease diagnosis. Until recently, brain tumor prognosis has been based only on clinical information such as tumor grade and patient age, but there are reports indicating that molecular profiling of gliomas can reveal subgroups of patients with distinct survival rates. We hypothesize that coupling molecular profiling of brain tumors with clinical information might improve predictions of patient survival time and, consequently, better guide future treatment decisions. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the general goal of this research is to build models for survival prediction of glioma patients using DNA molecular profiles (U133 Affymetrix gene expression microarrays) along with clinical information. First, a predictive Random Forest model is built for binary outcomes (i.e. short vs. long-term survival) and a small subset of genes whose expression values can be used to predict survival time is selected. Following, a new statistical methodology is developed for predicting time-to-death outcomes using Bayesian ensemble trees. Due to a large heterogeneity observed within prognostic classes obtained by the Random Forest model, prediction can be improved by relating time-to-death with gene expression profile directly. We propose a Bayesian ensemble model for survival prediction which is appropriate for high-dimensional data such as gene expression data. Our approach is based on the ensemble "sum-of-trees" model which is flexible to incorporate additive and interaction effects between genes. We specify a fully Bayesian hierarchical approach and illustrate our methodology for the CPH, Weibull, and AFT survival models. We overcome the lack of conjugacy using a latent variable formulation to model the covariate effects which decreases computation time for model fitting. Also, our proposed models provides a model-free way to select important predictive prognostic markers based on controlling false discovery rates. We compare the performance of our methods with baseline reference survival methods and apply our methodology to an unpublished data set of brain tumor survival times and gene expression data, selecting genes potentially related to the development of the disease under study. A closing discussion compares results obtained by Random Forest and Bayesian ensemble methods under the biological/clinical perspectives and highlights the statistical advantages and disadvantages of the new methodology in the context of DNA microarray data analysis.

Estimating the mean and standard deviation of concentration distributions using censored samples

Environmental data sets of pollutant concentrations in air, water, and soil frequently include unquantified sample values reported only as being below the analytical method detection limit. These values, referred to as censored values, should be considered in the estimation of distribution parameters as each represents some value of pollutant concentration between zero and the detection limit. Most of the currently accepted methods for estimating the population parameters of environmental data sets containing censored values rely upon the assumption of an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. This assumption can result in unacceptable levels of error in parameter estimation due to the unbounded left tail of the normal distribution. With the beta distribution, which is bounded by the same range of a distribution of concentrations, $\rm\lbrack0\le x\le1\rbrack,$ parameter estimation errors resulting from improper distribution bounds are avoided. This work developed a method that uses the beta distribution to estimate population parameters from censored environmental data sets and evaluated its performance in comparison to currently accepted methods that rely upon an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. Data sets were generated assuming typical values encountered in environmental pollutant evaluation for mean, standard deviation, and number of variates. For each set of model values, data sets were generated assuming that the data was distributed either normally, lognormally, or according to a beta distribution. For varying levels of censoring, two established methods of parameter estimation, regression on normal ordered statistics, and regression on lognormal ordered statistics, were used to estimate the known mean and standard deviation of each data set. The method developed for this study, employing a beta distribution assumption, was also used to estimate parameters and the relative accuracy of all three methods were compared. For data sets of all three distribution types, and for censoring levels up to 50%, the performance of the new method equaled, if not exceeded, the performance of the two established methods. Because of its robustness in parameter estimation regardless of distribution type or censoring level, the method employing the beta distribution should be considered for full development in estimating parameters for censored environmental data sets. ^

The sequence comparison index: A novel method for comparing proteins and proteomes

Historically morphological features were used as the primary means to classify organisms. However, the age of molecular genetics has allowed us to approach this field from the perspective of the organism's genetic code. Early work used highly conserved sequences, such as ribosomal RNA. The increasing number of complete genomes in the public data repositories provides the opportunity to look not only at a single gene, but at organisms' entire parts list. ^ Here the Sequence Comparison Index (SCI) and the Organism Comparison Index (OCI), algorithms and methods to compare proteins and proteomes, are presented. The complete proteomes of 104 sequenced organisms were compared. Over 280 million full Smith-Waterman alignments were performed on sequence pairs which had a reasonable expectation of being related. From these alignments a whole proteome phylogenetic tree was constructed. This method was also used to compare the small subunit (SSU) rRNA from each organism and a tree constructed from these results. The SSU rRNA tree by the SCI/OCI method looks very much like accepted SSU rRNA trees from sources such as the Ribosomal Database Project, thus validating the method. The SCI/OCI proteome tree showed a number of small but significant differences when compared to the SSU rRNA tree and proteome trees constructed by other methods. Horizontal gene transfer does not appear to affect the SCI/OCI trees until the transferred genes make up a large portion of the proteome. ^ As part of this work, the Database of Related Local Alignments (DaRLA) was created and contains over 81 million rows of sequence alignment information. DaRLA, while primarily used to build the whole proteome trees, can also be applied shared gene content analysis, gene order analysis, and creating individual protein trees. ^ Finally, the standard BLAST method for analyzing shared gene content was compared to the SCI method using 4 spirochetes. The SCI system performed flawlessly, finding all proteins from one organism against itself and finding all the ribosomal proteins between organisms. The BLAST system missed some proteins from its respective organism and failed to detect small ribosomal proteins between organisms. ^

Genetic variations in the PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway and bladder cancer susceptibility and clinical outcomes

Bladder cancer is the fourth most common cancer in men in the United States. There is compelling evidence supporting that genetic variations contribute to the risk and outcomes of bladder cancer. The PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway is a major cellular pathway involved in proliferation, invasion, inflammation, tumorigenesis, and drug response. Somatic aberrations of PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway are frequent events in several cancers including bladder cancer; however, no studies have investigated the role of germline genetic variations in this pathway in bladder cancer. In this project, we used a large case control study to evaluate the associations of a comprehensive catalogue of SNPs in this pathway with bladder cancer risk and outcomes. Three SNPs in RAPTOR were significantly associated with susceptibility: rs11653499 (OR: 1.79, 95%CI: 1.24–2.60), rs7211818 (OR: 2.13, 95%CI: 1.35–3.36), and rs7212142 (OR: 1.57, 95%CI: 1.19–2.07). Two haplotypes constructed from these 3 SNPs were also associated with bladder cancer risk. In combined analysis, a significant trend was observed for increased risk with an increase in the number of unfavorable genotypes (P for trend<0.001). Classification and regression tree analysis identified potential gene-environment interactions between RPS6KA5 rs11653499 and smoking. In superficial bladder cancer, we found that PTEN rs1234219 and rs11202600, TSC1 rs7040593, RAPTOR rs901065, and PIK3R1 rs251404 were significantly associated with recurrence in patients receiving BCG. In muscle invasive and metastatic bladder cancer, AKT2 rs3730050, PIK3R1 rs10515074, and RAPTOR rs9906827 were associated with survival. Survival tree analysis revealed potential gene-gene interactions: patients carrying the unfavorable genotypes of PTEN rs1234219 and TSC1 rs704059 exhibited a 5.24-fold (95% CI: 2.44–11.24) increased risk of recurrence. In combined analysis, with the increasing number of unfavorable genotypes, there was a significant trend of higher risk of recurrence and death (P for trend<0.001) in Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, and shorter event (recurrence and death) free survival in Kaplan-Meier estimates (P log rank<0.001). This study strongly suggests that genetic variations in PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway play an important role in bladder cancer development. The identified SNPs, if validated in further studies, may become valuable biomarkers in assessing an individual's cancer risk, predicting prognosis and treatment response, and facilitating physicians to make individualized treatment decisions. ^

Total cholesterol and anthropometric measurements distributions in a cross-sectional study of school children

Cross-sectional age and sex specific distributions of serum total cholesterol were described for 1091 children age 6-18 years, in The Woodlands, Texas. Associations of serum total cholesterol with five anthropometric measurements (weight, height, body mass index, arm circumference, and triceps skinfold thickness) were examined by correlation and regression analyses. Examination of serum total cholesterol distributions showed lower levels in boys than in girls for most of the age groups studied. Mean levels of total cholesterol peaked at age 9 for boys and 8 for girls. Serum total cholesterol leveled off until age 14 for boys and 11 for girls, and then dropped through age 18 for both boys and girls. These results support the hypothesis that serum total cholesterol concentration drops at pre-adolescence.^ Age adjusted correlations were observed between serum total cholesterol and triceps skinfold thickness for both boys and girls. This association was stronger in boys. Triceps skinfold thickness and arm circumference were consistently the strongest correlates for serum total cholesterol in boys. Weight and arm circumference were consistently the strongest correlates for serum total cholesterol in girls. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP OF PRESCRIPTION RECEIPT AND EXPECTATION OF SICK-ROLE LEGITIMATION BY AMBULATORY VETERANS

This study explored the relationship of attitudes, needs, and health services utilization patterns of elderly veterans who were identified and categorized by their expectation for and receipt of sick-role legitimation. Three prescription types (new, change, renewal) were defined as the operational variables. A population of 676 ambulatory, chronically ill (average age 60 years) veterans were sent a questionnaire (74% response rate). In addition, retrospective medical and prescription record review was performed for a 45% sample of respondents. The results were analyzed using discriminant function and regression analysis. Fewer than 20% of the veterans responding expected to receive more prescriptions than were presently prescribed, whereas over 80% expected refill authorizations. Distinct attitudinal, need, and utilization patterns were identified. ^

Role of obesity, weight gain, physical activity, and polymorphisms in the mTOR pathway and the risk of renal cell carcinoma

The interplay between obesity, physical activity, weight gain and genetic variants in mTOR pathway have not been studied in renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We examined the associations between obesity, weight gain, physical activity and RCC risk. We also analyzed whether genetic variants in the mTOR pathway could modify the association. Incident renal cell carcinoma cases and healthy controls were recruited from the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas. Cases and controls were frequency-matched by age (±5 years), ethnicity, sex, and county of residence. Epidemiologic data were collected via in-person interview. A total of 577 cases and 593 healthy controls (all white) were included. One hundred ninety-two (192) SNPs from 22 genes were available and their genotyping data were extracted from previous genome-wide association studies. Logistic regression and regression spline were performed to obtain odds ratios. Obesity at age 20, 40, and 3 years prior to diagnosis/recruitment, and moderate and large weight gain from age 20 to 40 were each significantly associated with increased RCC risk. Low physical activity was associated with a 4.08-fold (95% CI: 2.92-5.70) increased risk. Five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were significantly associated with RCC risk and their cumulative effect increased the risk by up to 72% (95% CI: 1.20-2.46). Strata specific effects for weight change and genotyping cumulative groups were observed. However, no interaction was suggested by our study. In conclusion, energy balance related risk factors and genetic variants in the mTOR pathway may jointly influence susceptibility to RCC. ^

Detecting spatiotemporal clusters of accidental poisoning mortality among Texas counties, U.S., 1980 – 2001

Background Accidental poisoning is one of the leading causes of injury in the United States, second only to motor vehicle accidents. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the rates of accidental poisoning mortality have been increasing in the past fourteen years nationally. In Texas, mortality rates from accidental poisoning have mirrored national trends, increasing linearly from 1981 to 2001. The purpose of this study was to determine if there are spatiotemporal clusters of accidental poisoning mortality among Texas counties, and if so, whether there are variations in clustering and risk according to gender and race/ethnicity. The Spatial Scan Statistic in combination with GIS software was used to identify potential clusters between 1980 and 2001 among Texas counties, and Poisson regression was used to evaluate risk differences. Results Several significant (p < 0.05) accidental poisoning mortality clusters were identified in different regions of Texas. The geographic and temporal persistence of clusters was found to vary by racial group, gender, and race/gender combinations, and most of the clusters persisted into the present decade. Poisson regression revealed significant differences in risk according to race and gender. The Black population was found to be at greatest risk of accidental poisoning mortality relative to other race/ethnic groups (Relative Risk (RR) = 1.25, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.24 – 1.27), and the male population was found to be at elevated risk (RR = 2.47, 95% CI = 2.45 – 2.50) when the female population was used as a reference. Conclusion The findings of the present study provide evidence for the existence of accidental poisoning mortality clusters in Texas, demonstrate the persistence of these clusters into the present decade, and show the spatiotemporal variations in risk and clustering of accidental poisoning deaths by gender and race/ethnicity. By quantifying disparities in accidental poisoning mortality by place, time and person, this study demonstrates the utility of the spatial scan statistic combined with GIS and regression methods in identifying priority areas for public health planning and resource allocation.

Mechanistic studies of mouse skin tumor promotion by chrysarobin

Since the anthrone chrysarobin oxidizes and generates free radicals, investigations were conducted to assess a possible role for free radicals or reactive oxygen species (ROS) in skin tumor promotion by chrysarobin. Epidermal glutathione levels were not noticeably altered by chrysarobin, nor did a glutathione-depleting agent enhance promotion by chrysarobin. Multiple applications of chrysarobin increased lipid peroxide levels in mouse epidermis two-fold as compared with controls. The antioxidant $\alpha$-tocopherol and the lipoxygenase inhibitor nordihydroguaiaretic acid both inhibited production of lipid peroxides by chrysarobin. The antioxidants $\alpha$-tocopherol acetate and ascorbyl palmitate effectively inhibited promotion and promoter-related effects induced by chrysarobin. Since prooxidant states can lead to increases in intracellular Ca$\sp{2+}$, the effect of two Ca$\sp{2+}$ antagonists, verapamil and TMB-8, on chrysarobin-induced promotion and promoter-related effects were investigated. Both Ca$\sp{2+}$ antagonists inhibited promotion and promoter-related effects induced by chrysarobin, suggesting a possible role for intracellular Ca$\sp{2+}$ alterations in chrysarobin-tumor promotion. Since radical generating compounds are reported to possess the ability to enhance progression of papillomas to squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs), the effects of chrysarobin on papilloma development were tested. Growth kinetics and regression of papillomas generated with limited promotion with chrysarobin were similar to what was reported for the nonradical generating promoter 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) (Aldaz et al., 1991). To test the chrysarobin's ability to enhance progression of pre-existing papillomas to SCCs, tumors were generated by initiation with dimethylbenz (a) anthracene and promotion with TPA. Then mice were treated with chrysarobin, TPA or acetone for 45 weeks. When mice treated with chrysarobin were compared to mice treated continually with TPA with similar numbers of papillomas, the number of papillomas that progressed to SCCs was similar, suggesting that papilloma burden influences the progression of papillomas to SCCs, rather than radical production. In summary, the present study suggests that chrysarobin produces oxidative stress in mouse epidermis as indicated by the generation of lipid peroxides. Antioxidants inhibited production of lipid peroxides and tumor promotion by chrysarobin. Collectively, these data suggest a role for free radicals or ROS in tumor promotion by chrysarobin. ^

HEALTH CARE COST INCREASES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS

The research project is an extension of the economic theory to the health care field and health care research projects evaluating the influence of demand and supply variables upon medical care inflation. The research tests a model linking the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, its community case mix, and technology, the prices of goods and services other than medical care, the way its medical services are delivered and the health care resources available to its population to different utilization patterns which, consequently, lead to variations in health care prices among metropolitan areas. The research considers the relationship of changes in community characteristics and resources and medical care inflation.^ The rapidly increasing costs of medical care have been of great concern to the general public, medical profession, and political bodies. Research and analysis of the main factors responsible for the rate of increase of medical care prices is necessary in order to devise appropriate solutions to cope with the problem. An understanding of the community characteristics and resources-medical care costs relationships in the metropolitan areas potentially offers guidance in individual plan and national policy development.^ The research considers 145 factors measuring community milieu (demographic, social, educational, economic, illness level, prices of goods and services other than medical care, hospital supply, physicians resources and techological factors). Through bivariate correlation analysis, the number of variables was reduced to a set of 1 to 4 variables for each cost equation. Two approaches were identified to track inflation in the health care industry. One approach measures costs of production which accounts for price and volume increases. The other approach measures price increases. One general and four specific measures were developed to represent each of the major approaches. The general measure considers the increase on medical care prices as a whole and the specific measures deal with hospital costs and physician's fees. The relationships among changes in community characteristics and resources and health care inflation were analyzed using bivariate correlation and regression analysis methods. It has been concluded that changes in community characteristics and resources are predictive of hospital costs and physician's fees inflation, but are not predictive of increases in medical care prices. These findings provide guidance in the formulation of public policy which could alter the trend of medical care inflation and in the allocation of limited Federal funds.^