Evaluating statistical methods used to estimate the number of postsynaptic receptors.

Calcium levels in spines play a significant role in determining the sign and magnitude of synaptic plasticity. The magnitude of calcium influx into spines is highly dependent on influx through N-methyl D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, and therefore depends on the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors in each spine. We have calculated previously how the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors determines the mean and variance of calcium transients in the postsynaptic density, and how this alters the shape of plasticity curves. However, the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors in the postsynaptic density is not well known. Anatomical methods for estimating the number of NMDA receptors produce estimates that are very different than those produced by physiological techniques. The physiological techniques are based on the statistics of synaptic transmission and it is difficult to experimentally estimate their precision. In this paper we use stochastic simulations in order to test the validity of a physiological estimation technique based on failure analysis. We find that the method is likely to underestimate the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors, explain the source of the error, and re-derive a more precise estimation technique. We also show that the original failure analysis as well as our improved formulas are not robust to small estimation errors in key parameters.

A nonparametric method of comparing the partial areas under two correlated receiver operating characteristic curves

A non-parametric method was developed and tested to compare the partial areas under two correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. Based on the theory of generalized U-statistics the mathematical formulas have been derived for computing ROC area, and the variance and covariance between the portions of two ROC curves. A practical SAS application also has been developed to facilitate the calculations. The accuracy of the non-parametric method was evaluated by comparing it to other methods. By applying our method to the data from a published ROC analysis of CT image, our results are very close to theirs. A hypothetical example was used to demonstrate the effects of two crossed ROC curves. The two ROC areas are the same. However each portion of the area between two ROC curves were found to be significantly different by the partial ROC curve analysis. For computation of ROC curves with large scales, such as a logistic regression model, we applied our method to the breast cancer study with Medicare claims data. It yielded the same ROC area computation as the SAS Logistic procedure. Our method also provides an alternative to the global summary of ROC area comparison by directly comparing the true-positive rates for two regression models and by determining the range of false-positive values where the models differ. ^

Case-control study of association of maternal recall of diarrhea or use of antimicrobials in the periconceptional period and neural tube defects

In June 1995 a case-control study was initiated by the Texas Department of Health among Mexican American women residing in the fourteen counties of the Texas-Mexico border. Case-women had carried infants with neural tube defect. Control-women had given birth to infants without neural tube defects. The case-control protocol included a general questionnaire which elicited information regarding illnesses experienced and antibiotics taken from three months prior to conception to three months after conception. An assessment of the associations between periconceptional diarrhea and the risk of neural tube defects indicated that the unadjusted association of diarrhea and risk of neural tube defect was significant (OR = 3.3, CI = 1.4–7.6). The unadjusted association of use of oral antimicrobials and risk of neural tube defect was also significant (OR = 3.4, CI = 1.6–7.3). These associations persisted among women who had no fever during the periconceptional period and were present irrespective of folate intake. Diarrhea was associated with an increased risk of NTD independent of use of antimicrobials. The converse was also true; antimicrobials were associated with an increased risk of NTD independent of diarrhea. Further research regarding these potentially modifiable risk factors is warranted. Replication of these findings could result in interventions in addition to folate supplementation. ^