A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT AND DRUG-DRUG INTERACTION ANALYSIS: APPLICATION TO IN VITRO STUDIES

The considerable search for synergistic agents in cancer research is motivated by the therapeutic benefits achieved by combining anti-cancer agents. Synergistic agents make it possible to reduce dosage while maintaining or enhancing a desired effect. Other favorable outcomes of synergistic agents include reduction in toxicity and minimizing or delaying drug resistance. Dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis play an important part in the drug discovery process, however analysis are often poorly done. This dissertation is an effort to notably improve dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis. The most commonly used method in published analysis is the Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method (Chou and Talalay, 1984). The Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method leads to inefficiency by ignoring important sources of variation inherent in dose-response data and discarding data points that do not fit the Median-Effect Principle. Previous work has shown that the conventional method yields a high rate of false positives (Boik, Boik, Newman, 2008; Hennessey, Rosner, Bast, Chen, 2010) and, in some cases, low power to detect synergy. There is a great need for improving the current methodology. We developed a Bayesian framework for dose-response modeling and drug-drug interaction analysis. First, we developed a hierarchical meta-regression dose-response model that accounts for various sources of variation and uncertainty and allows one to incorporate knowledge from prior studies into the current analysis, thus offering a more efficient and reliable inference. Second, in the case that parametric dose-response models do not fit the data, we developed a practical and flexible nonparametric regression method for meta-analysis of independently repeated dose-response experiments. Third, and lastly, we developed a method, based on Loewe additivity that allows one to quantitatively assess interaction between two agents combined at a fixed dose ratio. The proposed method makes a comprehensive and honest account of uncertainty within drug interaction assessment. Extensive simulation studies show that the novel methodology improves the screening process of effective/synergistic agents and reduces the incidence of type I error. We consider an ovarian cancer cell line study that investigates the combined effect of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors in human ovarian cancer cell lines. The hypothesis is that the combination of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors will enhance antiproliferative activity in human ovarian cancer cell lines compared to treatment with each inhibitor alone. By applying the proposed Bayesian methodology, in vitro synergy was declared for DNA methylation inhibitor, 5-AZA-2'-deoxycytidine combined with one histone deacetylation inhibitor, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid or trichostatin A in the cell lines HEY and SKOV3. This suggests potential new epigenetic therapies in cell growth inhibition of ovarian cancer cells.

Immune response to regressor and progressor tumor variants

Most skin cancers induced in mice by Ultraviolet (UV) radiation express highly immunogenic Tumor specific transplantation antigens (TSTAs) and thus exhibit a regressor phenotype. In this study, I have used cloned genes encoding tumor antigens and oncogenes in conjunction with DNA transfection technique to isolate and characterize regressor variants from progressor tumors and vice versa. The purpose of this study was (1) to determine whether the product of a cloned gene (216) from UV-1591 tumor, which encodes a novel MHC class I antigen can function as a tumor rejection antigen when expressed on unrelated, nonantigenic, murine tumor cells or whether its function is restricted to UV-induced tumors, and (2) to determine the processes by which progressor variants derived from a regressor UV-2240 cell line by transfection with an activated Ha-ras oncogene escape the immune defenses of the normal immunocompetent host.^ To answer the first question, a spontaneously transformed, nonimmunogenic cell line (10T-1) was cotransfected with DNA from p216 and pSV2-neo plasmids. Results demonstrate that the product of a cloned TSTA gene from a UV-induced murine tumor is capable of functioning as a tumor rejection antigen when expressed on unrelated, nonantigenic tumor cells. In addition, these results indicate that this approach could be used to augment the immune response against poorly antigenic tumors.^ To answer the second question, progressor variants were isolated from a highly antigenic UV radiation-induced C3H mouse regressor fibrosarcoma cell line, UV-2240, by transfection with an activated Ha-ras oncogene. Subcutaneous injection of Ha-ras-transfected UV-2240 cells into immunocompetent C3H mice produced tumors in 4 of 36 animals. In addition, the Ha-ras-induced progressor variants produced experimental lung metastasis in both normal C3H and nude mice, although they induced more lung nodules in nude mice than in normal C3H mice. Results indicate that the progressor phenotype of the Ha-ras-induced tumor variants is not due to loss of TSTAs or MHC class I antigens. This implies that some tumors can escape the immune defenses of the normal immunocompetent host by mechanisms other than the loss of TSTAs and MHC class I antigens. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

The adolescent response to pregnancy: Accepting the reality

The research literature on adolescent pregnancy indicates a relationship between early prenatal care and positive pregnancy outcomes, yet fewer than half of pregnant teenagers seek prenatal care in the first trimester of pregnancy. Although social support theory speculates that there should be a relationship between support and health outcomes, available studies do not reflect the processes by which pregnant adolescents use their social resources in making decisions about their pregnancies. This study describes the processes by which the adolescent comes to accept the reality of her pregnancy.^ Drawing from the social-psychological theories of illness behavior and symbolic interactionism, this study examines the symptom diagnosis and help seeking behavior of the pregnant adolescent. This approach describes how the adolescent interprets events and draws conclusions based on her social reality.^ Interviews were conducted with ten young women, aged 15-17, who had recently delivered a first child. Onset of prenatal care ranged from the third month to the seventh month. None were married, and all but two lived with a parent. All but one were currently in school. Initial unstructured interviews were attempted to construe the modes of expression of the young women regarding the event of pregnancy. Subsequent interviews elicited the processes of recognition and explanation of symptoms of pregnancy.^ Analysis revealed a consistent natural history in the subjects' experiences as they come to accept the reality of pregnancy. Symptom appraisal and definition involves noticing changes in themselves, and evaluating and attempting to find suitable explanations for these symptoms. Lay consultation from friends and family aids in identifying the symptoms and to receive suggestions for treatment. It is at this point that prenatal care is usually initiated. Finally the young women describe the integration of pregnancy into their belief systems. ^

Introduction to public health preparedness for disaster and emergency response

The unprecedented attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent anthrax-related events thrust our nation's often forgotten public health system into the forefront of public attention. A strong public health system with a well-prepared workforce plays a critical role in preparing for and responding to the threat of bioterrorism and other disasters and emergencies. Technical expertise is critical as is a basic awareness and understanding of core public health competencies especially as they relate to disaster and emergency response is also imperative for a public health agency to function as a vital Emergency Response team member. Ideally this training should begin at the Public Health graduate level so as to provide the baseline core tools to be able to function as a vital team member when they are practicing out in the real world. Online learning is an efficient and effective method for providing public health education to in a flexible format to meet the needs of busy student-professions. This Public Health Disaster Preparedness online course developed during an Emergency Response state program practicum is a practical and proficient approach to accomplish this endeavor. ^

Roadmap for implementing the Chronic Care Model for weight management: Healthcare Institution's Response to Obesity (HIRO)

Background. Excess weight and obesity are at epidemic proportions in the United States and place individuals at increased risk for a variety of chronic conditions. Rates of diabetes, high blood pressure, coronary artery disease, stroke, cancer, and arthritis are all influenced by the presence of obesity. Small reductions in excess weight can produce significant positive clinical outcomes. Healthcare organizations have a vital role to play in the identification and management of obesity. Currently, healthcare providers do not adequately diagnose and manage excess weight in patients. Lack of skill, time, and knowledge are commonly cited as reasons for non-adherence to recommended standards of care. The Chronic Care Model offers an approach to healthcare organizations for chronic disease management. The model consists of six elements that work together to empower both providers and patients to have more productive interactions: the community, the health system itself, self-management support, delivery system design, decision support, and clinical information systems. The model and its elements may offer a framework through which healthcare organizations can adapt to support, educate, and empower providers and patients in the management of excess weight and obesity. Successful management of excess weight will reduce morbidity and mortality of many chronic conditions. Purpose. The purpose of this review is to synthesize existing research on the effectiveness of the Chronic Care Model and its elements as they relate to weight management and behaviors associated with maintaining a healthy weight. Methods: A narrative review of the literature between November 1998 and November 2008 was conducted. The review focused on clinical trials, systematic reviews, and reports related to the chronic care model or its elements and weight management, physical activity, nutrition, or diabetes. Fifty-nine articles are included in the review. Results. This review highlights the use of the Chronic Care Model and its elements that can result in improved quality of care and clinical outcomes related to weight management, physical activity, nutrition, and diabetes. Conclusions. Healthcare organizations can use the Chronic Care Model framework to implement changes within their systems to successfully address overweight and obesity in their patient populations. Specific recommendations for operationalizing the Chronic Care Model elements for weight management are presented.^

Validation of an instrument for assessing the medicolegal death investigation system: A public health approach

Background. This study validated the content of an instrument designed to assess the performance of the medicolegal death investigation system. The instrument was modified from Version 2.0 of the Local Public Health System Performance Assessment Instrument (CDC) and is based on the 10 Essential Public Health Services. ^ Aims. The aims were to employ a cognitive testing process to interview a randomized sample of medicolegal death investigation office leaders, qualitatively describe the results, and revise the instrument accordingly. ^ Methods. A cognitive testing process was used to validate the survey instrument's content in terms of the how well participants could respond to and interpret the questions. Twelve randomly selected medicolegal death investigation chiefs (or equivalent) that represented the seven types of medicolegal death investigation systems and six different state mandates were interviewed by telephone. The respondents also were representative of the educational diversity within medicolegal death investigation leadership. Based on respondent comments, themes were identified that permitted improvement of the instrument toward collecting valid and reliable information when ultimately used in a field survey format. ^ Results. Responses were coded and classified, which permitted the identification of themes related to Comprehension/Interpretation, Retrieval, Estimate/Judgment, and Response. The majority of respondent comments related to Comprehension/Interpretation of the questions. Respondents identified 67 questions and 6 section explanations that merited rephrasing, adding, or deleting examples or words. In addition, five questions were added based on respondent comments. ^ Conclusion. The content of the instrument was validated by cognitive testing method design. The respondents agreed that the instrument would be a useful and relevant tool for assessing system performance. ^

Apply response adaptive randomization to group sequential with early stopping

Group sequential methods and response adaptive randomization (RAR) procedures have been applied in clinical trials due to economical and ethical considerations. Group sequential methods are able to reduce the average sample size by inducing early stopping, but patients are equally allocated with half of chance to inferior arm. RAR procedures incline to allocate more patients to better arm; however it requires more sample size to obtain a certain power. This study intended to combine these two procedures. We applied the Bayesian decision theory approach to define our group sequential stopping rules and evaluated the operating characteristics under RAR setting. The results showed that Bayesian decision theory method was able to preserve the type I error rate as well as achieve a favorable power; further by comparing with the error spending function method, we concluded that Bayesian decision theory approach was more effective on reducing average sample size.^

A Bayesian approach to estimating the regression coefficients of a multinomial logit model

A Bayesian approach to estimation of the regression coefficients of a multinominal logit model with ordinal scale response categories is presented. A Monte Carlo method is used to construct the posterior distribution of the link function. The link function is treated as an arbitrary scalar function. Then the Gauss-Markov theorem is used to determine a function of the link which produces a random vector of coefficients. The posterior distribution of the random vector of coefficients is used to estimate the regression coefficients. The method described is referred to as a Bayesian generalized least square (BGLS) analysis. Two cases involving multinominal logit models are described. Case I involves a cumulative logit model and Case II involves a proportional-odds model. All inferences about the coefficients for both cases are described in terms of the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients. The results from the BGLS method are compared to maximum likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients. The BGLS method avoids the nonlinear problems encountered when estimating the regression coefficients of a generalized linear model. The method is not complex or computationally intensive. The BGLS method offers several advantages over Bayesian approaches. ^

Genetic variants in the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling pathway as predictors of survival and clinical response in women with ovarian cancer

Background. The mTOR pathway is commonly altered in human tumors and promotes cell survival and proliferation. Preliminary evidence suggests this pathway's involvement in chemoresistance to platinum and taxanes, first line therapy for epithelial ovarian cancer. A pathway-based approach was used to identify individual germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and cumulative effects of multiple genetic variants in mTOR pathway genes and their association with clinical outcome in women with ovarian cancer. ^ Methods. The case-series was restricted to 319 non-Hispanic white women with high grade ovarian cancer treated with surgery and platinum-based chemotherapy. 135 SNPs in 20 representative genes in the mTOR pathway were genotyped. Hazard ratios (HRs) for death and Odds ratios (ORs) for failure to respond to primary therapy were estimated for each SNP using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and multivariate logistic regression model, respectively, while adjusting for age, stage, histology and treatment sequence. A survival tree analysis of SNPs with a statistically significant association (p<0.05) was performed to identify higher order gene-gene interactions and their association with overall survival. ^ Results. There was no statistically significant difference in survival by tumor histology or treatment regimen. The median survival for the cohort was 48.3 months. Seven SNPs were significantly associated with decreased survival. Compared to those with no unfavorable genotypes, the HR for death increased significantly with the increasing number of unfavorable genotypes and women in the highest risk category had HR of 4.06 (95% CI 2.29–7.21). The survival tree analysis also identified patients with different survival patterns based on their genetic profiles. 13 SNPs on five different genes were found to be significantly associated with a treatment response, defined as no evidence of disease after completion of primary therapy. Rare homozygous genotype of SNP rs6973428 showed a 5.5-fold increased risk compared to the wild type carrying genotypes. In the cumulative effect analysis, the highest risk group (individuals with ≥8 unfavorable genotypes) was significantly less likely to respond to chemotherapy (OR=8.40, 95% CI 3.10–22.75) compared to the low risk group (≤4 unfavorable genotypes). ^ Conclusions. A pathway-based approach can demonstrate cumulative effects of multiple genetic variants on clinical response to chemotherapy and survival. Therapy targeting the mTOR pathway may modify outcome in select patients.^

Renal Cryoablation: Investigation of Periprocedural Visualization Tools and Treatment Response Quantification

Cryoablation for small renal tumors has demonstrated sufficient clinical efficacy over the past decade as a non-surgical nephron-sparing approach for treating renal masses for patients who are not surgical candidates. Minimally invasive percutaneous cryoablations have been performed with image guidance from CT, ultrasound, and MRI. During the MRI-guided cryoablation procedure, the interventional radiologist visually compares the iceball size on monitoring images with respect to the original tumor on separate planning images. The comparisons made during the monitoring step are time consuming, inefficient and sometimes lack the precision needed for decision making, requiring the radiologist to make further changes later in the procedure. This study sought to mitigate uncertainty in these visual comparisons by quantifying tissue response to cryoablation and providing visualization of the response during the procedure. Based on retrospective analysis of MR-guided cryoablation patient data, registration and segmentation algorithms were investigated and implemented for periprocedural visualization to deliver iceball position/size with respect to planning images registered within 3.3mm with at least 70% overlap and a quantitative logit model was developed to relate perfusion deficit in renal parenchyma visualized in verification images as a result of iceball size visualized in monitoring images. Through retrospective study of 20 patient cases, the relationship between likelihood of perfusion loss in renal parenchyma and distance within iceball was quantified and iteratively fit to a logit curve. Using the parameters from the logit fit, the margin for 95% perfusion loss likelihood was found to be 4.28 mm within the iceball. The observed margin corresponds well with the clinically accepted margin of 3-5mm within the iceball. In order to display the iceball position and perfusion loss likelihood to the radiologist, algorithms were implemented to create a fast segmentation and registration module which executed in under 2 minutes, within the clinically-relevant 3 minute monitoring period. Using 16 patient cases, the average Hausdorff distance was reduced from 10.1mm to 3.21 mm with average DSC increased from 46.6% to 82.6% before and after registration.

Calmodulin -regulated processes and intracellular calcium in the heat stress response of mammalian cells

Three approaches were used to examine the role of Ca$\sp{2+}$- and/or calmodulin (CaM)-regulated processes in the mammalian heat stress response. The focus of the first approach was on the major Ca$\sp{2+}$-binding protein, CaM, and involved the use of CaM antagonists that perturbed CaM-regulated processes during heat stress. The second approach involved the use of a cell line and its BPV-1 transformants that express increased basal levels of CaM, or parvalbumin--a Ca$\sp{2+}$-binding protein not normally found in these cells. The last approach used Ca$\sp{2+}$ chelators to buffer Ca$\sp{2+}$-transients.^ The principle conclusions resulting from these three experimental approaches are: (1) CaM antagonists cause a temperature-dependent potentiation of heat killing, but do not inhibit the triggering and development of thermotolerance suggesting some targets for heat killing are different from those that lead to thermotolerance; (2) Members of major HSP families (especially HSP70) can bind to CaM in a Ca$\sp{2+}$-dependent manner in vitro, and HSP have been associated with events leading to thermotolerance. But, because thermotolerance is not affected by CaM antagonists, and antagonists should interfere with HSP binding to CaM, the events leading to triggering or developing thermotolerance were not strongly dependent on HSP binding to CaM; (3) CaM antagonists can also bind to HSP70 (and possibly other HSP) suggesting an alternative mechanism for the action of these agents in heat killing may involve direct binding to other proteins, like HSP70, whose function is important for survival following heating and inhibiting their activity; and (4) The signal governing the rate of synthesis of another major HSP group, the HSP26 family, can be largely abrogated by elevated Ca$\sp{2+}$-binding proteins or Ca$\sp{2+}$ chelators without significantly reducing survival or thermotolerance suggesting if the HSP26 family is involved in either end point, it may function in (Ca$\sp{2+}$) $\sb{\rm i}$ homeostasis. ^

The influence of antibacterial susceptibility and pharmacodynamics on the therapeutic response of infection

This prospective cohort study estimated how antibacterial resistance affected the time until clinical response. Relative rates of improvement and cure were estimated by proportional-hazards regression for 391 patients with culture-confirmed bacterial keratitis who had the ciprofloxacin minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) measured of the principal corneal isolate and who were treated with ciprofloxacin 0.3% solution or ointment. After adjusting for age and hypopyon status and stratifying by ulcer size, clinic, and ciprofloxacin formulation, the summary rate of clinical improvement with ciprofloxacin therapy was reduced by 42% (95% confidence limits [CL], 3%, 65%) among patients whose corneal isolate's ciprofloxacin MIC exceeded 1.0 μg/mL compared to those with more sensitive isolates. The summary rate of resolution to improvement and cure was reduced by 36% (95% CL, 11%, 53%) among corneal infections having a higher ciprofloxacin MIC. Rate ratios were modified by the size of the presenting corneal ulceration; for ulcer diameters of 4 mm or less and of more than 4 mm, improvement rate ratios were 0.56 (95% CL, 0.31, 1.02) and 0.65 (95% CL, 0.23, 1.80), respectively; resolution rate ratios were 0.63 (95% CL, 0.44, 0.91) and 0.67 (95% CL, 0.32, 1.39), respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the summary improvement rate ratio could be maximally overestimated by 24% (95% CL, −29%, 114%) because of informative censoring or by 33% (95% CL, −21%, 126%) from loss to follow up. Based on reported corneal pharmacokinetics of topical ciprofloxacin, the probability of clinical improvement was 90% or more if the ratio of the achievable corneal ciprofloxacin concentration to the corneal isolate's ciprofloxacin MIC was above 8 or the ratio of the area under the 24-hour corneal concentration curve to the ciprofloxacin MIC was greater than 151. This study suggests that corneal infections by bacteria having a higher ciprofloxacin MIC respond more slowly to ciprofloxacin treatment than those with a lower MIC. While the rate of clinical resolution is affected by patient age and clinical severity, antimicrobial susceptibility testing of corneal cultures can indicate the relative effectiveness of antibacterial therapy. A pharmacodynamic approach to treating bacterial keratitis offers the prospect of optimal antimicrobial selection and modification. ^