Bayesian generalized linear models for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests

With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

A qualitative and quantitative assessment of cancer patients' perceptions of barriers to treatment

This study examined barriers that cancer patients experience in obtaining treatment. The principal aim of the study was to conduct a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessment of barriers to cancer treatment for Texas cancer patients. The three specific aims of the study were to: (1) conduct a review and critique of published and unpublished research on barriers to cancer treatment; (2) conduct focus groups for the qualitative assessment of cancer patients' perceived barriers to cancer treatment; and (3) survey a representative sample of cancer patients regarding perceived barriers to treatment. The study was guided by the Aday and Andersen access framework of predisposing, enabling, and need determinants of care-seeking.^ To address the first specific aim, a total of 732 abstracts were examined, from which 154 articles were selected for review. Of these 154 articles, 57 that related directly to research on barriers to cancer treatment were chosen for subsequent analysis. Criteria were applied to each article to evaluate the strength of the study design, sampling and measurement procedures. The major barriers that were consistently documented to influence whether or not cancer patients sought or continued required treatment included problems with communication between the patient and provider, lack of information on side effects, the cost of treatment and associated difficulties in obtaining and maintaining insurance coverage, and the absence of formal and informal networks of social support. Access barriers were generally greater for older, minority women, and patients of lower socioeconomic status.^ To address the second specific aim, a total of eight focus groups (n = 44) were conducted across the State of Texas with cancer patients identified by the Texas Community Oncology Network, American Cancer Society, and community health centers. One important finding was that cost is the greatest hurdle that patients face. Another finding was that with the health care/insurance crisis, an increasing number of physicians are working with their patients to develop individually-tailored payment plans. For people in rural areas, travel to treatment sites is a major barrier due to the travel costs as well as work time forfeited by patients and their family members. A third major finding was the patients' family and church play important roles in providing social and emotional support for cancer patients.^ To address the third aim, a total of 910 cancer patients were surveyed during October and November, 1993. Approximately 65% of the cancer patients responded to the survey. The findings showed that the major barriers to treatment included costs of medications and diagnostic tests, transportation, lack of social support, problems understanding the written information regarding their disease as well as losing coverage or having higher premiums or copayments once they were diagnosed (particularly among blacks).^ Significant differences in reported barriers were found between racial groups. The minority respondents (i.e., blacks and Hispanics) tended to experience more barriers to treatment compared to the white respondents. More specifically, Hispanics were more likely to report transportation as a barrier to treatment than both white and blacks. Future research is needed to better understand the problems that minority cancer patients experience in receiving treatment. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

The performance of human papillomavirus high-risk DNA testing in the screening and diagnostic settings.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate the performance of the human papillomavirus high-risk DNA test in patients 30 years and older. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Screening (n=835) and diagnosis (n=518) groups were defined based on prior Papanicolaou smear results as part of a clinical trial for cervical cancer detection. We compared the Hybrid Capture II (HCII) test result with the worst histologic report. We used cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2/3 or worse as the reference of disease. We calculated sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and areas under the ROC curves for the HCII test. We also considered alternative strategies, including Papanicolaou smear, a combination of Papanicolaou smear and the HCII test, a sequence of Papanicolaou smear followed by the HCII test, and a sequence of the HCII test followed by Papanicolaou smear. RESULTS: For the screening group, the sensitivity was 0.69 and the specificity was 0.93; the area under the ROC curve was 0.81. The LR+ and LR- were 10.24 and 0.34, respectively. For the diagnosis group, the sensitivity was 0.88 and the specificity was 0.78; the area under the ROC curve was 0.83. The LR+ and LR- were 4.06 and 0.14, respectively. Sequential testing showed little or no improvement over the combination testing. CONCLUSIONS: The HCII test in the screening group had a greater LR+ for the detection of CIN 2/3 or worse. HCII testing may be an additional screening tool for cervical cancer in women 30 years and older.

Rapid effects of 1alpha,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 on osteoblasts: Studies of membrane transducers that affect calcium signals

1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 [1,25(OH)2D 3] exerts pleiotropic effects on osteoblasts via both long-term nuclear receptor-mediated and rapid membrane-initiated pathways during bone remodeling and mineral homeostasis. This study explored the membrane transducers that mediate rapid effects of 1,25(OH)2D3 on osteoblasts, including sphingomyelinase (SMase) and L-type voltage sensitive calcium channels (VSCCs). ^ It was previously demonstrated that 1,25(OH)2D3 stimulates transmembrane influx of Ca2+ through VSCCs in ROS 17/2.8 osteoblasts, however the molecular identity of 1,25(OH)2D 3-regulated VSCC has not been known. In this study, on the basis of in vitro tests of three unique ribozymes specifically cleaving a1C mRNA, I transfected ROS 17/2.8 cells with vectors coding recombinant ribozyme modified with U1 snRNA structure, and successfully selected stable clonal cells in which the expression of a1C was strikingly reduced. Ca2+ influx studies in these cells compared to control transfectants showed selective attenuation of depolarization- and 1,25(OH)2D3-regulated Ca2+ responses. These results allow us to conclude that the cardiac ( a1C ) subtype of the L-type VSCC is the major membrane transducer of Ca 2+ influx in osteoblasts. ^ I also demonstrated that 1,25(OH)2D3 induces a rapid hydrolysis of membrane sphingomyelin (SM) in ROS 17/2.8 cells, with the concomitant generation of ceramide, detectable at 15 minute, and maximal at 1 hour after addition. Sphingosine, sphingosine-1-phosphate (SPP) and sphingosylphosphorylcholine (SPC), downstream products of SM hydrolysis, but not ceramide, elicit Ca 2+ release from intracellular stores. Considering ceramide, sphingosine, and SPP as second messengers modulating intracellular kinases or phosphatases, these findings implicate sphingolipid-signaling pathways in transducing rapid effects of 1,25(OH)2D3 on osteoblasts. In structure/function analyses of sphingolipid signaling, it was observed that psychosine elicits Ca2+ release from intracellular stores. This challenges the dogma that sphingosine phosphorylation permits mobilization of Ca2+ , because psychosine is a sphingosine analog galactosylated at 1-carbon, preventing phosphorylation at that site. Psychosine is the pathological metabolite found in patients with Krabbe's disease, suggesting that psychosine disrupts the physiological sphingolipid signaling by chronic release of Ca2+ from intracellular stores. ^ Slower SM turnover than Ca2+ influx through VSCCs in response to 1,25(OH)2D3 demonstrates ceramide does not mediate the 1,25(OH)2D3-induced Ca2+ signaling, a conclusion endorsed further by the failure of ceramide to induce Ca 2+ signaling. ^

Nonlinear tests for genetic studies of complex disease

Linkage and association studies are major analytical tools to search for susceptibility genes for complex diseases. With the availability of large collection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and the rapid progresses for high throughput genotyping technologies, together with the ambitious goals of the International HapMap Project, genetic markers covering the whole genome will be available for genome-wide linkage and association studies. In order not to inflate the type I error rate in performing genome-wide linkage and association studies, multiple adjustment for the significant level for each independent linkage and/or association test is required, and this has led to the suggestion of genome-wide significant cut-off as low as 5 × 10 −7. Almost no linkage and/or association study can meet such a stringent threshold by the standard statistical methods. Developing new statistics with high power is urgently needed to tackle this problem. This dissertation proposes and explores a class of novel test statistics that can be used in both population-based and family-based genetic data by employing a completely new strategy, which uses nonlinear transformation of the sample means to construct test statistics for linkage and association studies. Extensive simulation studies are used to illustrate the properties of the nonlinear test statistics. Power calculations are performed using both analytical and empirical methods. Finally, real data sets are analyzed with the nonlinear test statistics. Results show that the nonlinear test statistics have correct type I error rates, and most of the studied nonlinear test statistics have higher power than the standard chi-square test. This dissertation introduces a new idea to design novel test statistics with high power and might open new ways to mapping susceptibility genes for complex diseases. ^

Diagnosis of sexually transmitted infections in developing nations using syndromic management: Is it working?

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are a major public health problem, and controlling their spread is a priority. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there are 340 million new cases of treatable STIs among 15–49 year olds that occur yearly around the world (1). Infection with STIs can lead to several complications such as pelvic inflammatory disorder (PID), cervical cancer, infertility, ectopic pregnancy, and even death (1). Additionally, STIs and associated complications are among the top disease types for which healthcare is sought in developing nations (1), and according to the UNAIDS report, there is a strong connection between STIs and the sexual spread of HIV infection (2). In fact, it is estimated that the presence of an untreated STI can increase the likelihood of contracting and spreading HIV by a factor up to 10 (2). In addition, developing countries are poorer in resources and lack inexpensive and precise diagnostic laboratory tests for STIs, thereby exacerbating the problem. Thus, the WHO recommends syndromic management of STIs for delivering care where lab testing is scarce or unattainable (1). This approach utilizes the use of an easy to use algorithm to help healthcare workers recognize symptoms/signs so as to provide treatment for the likely cause of the syndrome. Furthermore, according to the WHO, syndromic management offers instant and legitimate treatment compared to clinical diagnosis, and that it is also more cost-effective for some syndromes over the use of laboratory testing (1). In addition, even though it has been shown that the vaginal discharge syndrome has low specificity for gonorrhea and Chlamydia and can lead to over treatment (1), this is the recommended way to manage STIs in developing nations. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to specifically address the following questions: is syndromic management working to lower the STI burden in developing nations? How effective is it, and should it still be recommended? To answer these questions, a systematic literature review was conducted to evaluate the current effectiveness of syndromic management in developing nations. This review examined published articles over the past 5 years that compared syndromic management to laboratory testing and had published sensitivity, specificity, and positive predicative value data. Focusing mainly on vaginal discharge, urethral discharge, and genital ulcer algorithms, it was seen that though syndromic management is more effective in diagnosing and treating urethral and genial ulcer syndromes in men, there still remains an urgent need to revise the WHO recommendations for managing STIs in developing nations. Current studies have continued to show decreased specificity, sensitivity and positive predicative values for the vaginal discharge syndrome, and high rates of asymptomatic infections and healthcare workers neglecting to follow guidelines limit the usefulness of syndromic management. Furthermore, though advocate d as cost-effective by the WHO, there is a cost incurred from treating uninfected people. Instead of improving this system, it is recommended that better and less expensive point of care and the development of rapid test diagnosis kits be the focus and method of diagnosis and treatment in developing nations for STI management. ^

POPULATION ASSESSMENTS OF INFECTION WITH SCHISTOSOMA MANSONI: EFFECTS OF BIAS CAUSED BY THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF DIAGNOSTIC TECHNIQUES (PUERTO RICO)

This study establishes the extent and relevance of bias of population estimates of prevalence, incidence, and intensity of infection with Schistosoma mansoni caused by the relative sensitivity of stool examination techniques. The population studied was Parcelas de Boqueron in Las Piedras, Puerto Rico, where the Centers for Disease Control, had undertaken a prospective community-based study of infection with S. mansoni in 1972. During each January of the succeeding years stool specimens from this population were processed according to the modified Ritchie concentration (MRC) technique. During January 1979 additional stool specimens were collected from 30 individuals selected on the basis of their mean S. mansoni egg output during previous years. Each specimen was divided into ten 1-gm aliquots and three 42-mg aliquots. The relationship of egg counts obtained with the Kato-Katz (KK) thick smear technique as a function of the mean of ten counts obtained with the MRC technique was established by means of regression analysis. Additionally, the effect of fecal sample size and egg excretion level on technique sensitivity was evaluated during a blind assessment of single stool specimen samples, using both examination methods, from 125 residents with documented S. mansoni infections. The regression equation was: Ln KK = 2.3324 + 0.6319 Ln MRC, and the coefficient of determination (r('2)) was 0.73. The regression equation was then utilized to correct the term "m" for sample size in the expression P ((GREATERTHEQ) 1 egg) = 1 - e('-ms), which estimates the probability P of finding at least one egg as a function of the mean S. mansoni egg output "m" of the population and the effective stool sample size "s" utilized by the coprological technique. This algorithm closely approximated the observed sensitivity of the KK and MRC tests when these were utilized to blindly screen a population of known parasitologic status for infection with S. mansoni. In addition, the algorithm was utilized to adjust the apparent prevalence of infection for the degree of functional sensitivity exhibited by the diagnostic test. This permitted the estimation of true prevalence of infection and, hence, a means for correcting estimates of incidence of infection. ^

Tuberculosis in HIV-infected individuals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Early and accurate detection of TB disease in HIV-infected individuals is a critical step for a successful TB program. In Vietnam, the diagnosis of TB disease, which is based predominantly on the clinical examination, chest radiography (CXR) and acid fast bacilli (AFB) sputum smear, has shown to be of low sensitivity in immunocompromised patients. The sputum culture is not routinely performed for patients with AFB negative smears, even in HIV-infected individuals.^ In that background, we conducted this cross-sectional study to estimate the prevalence of sputum culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), smear-negative PTB, and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) in the HIV-infected population in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), the largest city in Vietnam where both TB and HIV are highly prevalent. We also evaluated the diagnostic performance of various algorithms based on routine available tools in Vietnam such as symptoms screening, CXR, and AFB smear. Nearly 400 subjects were consecutively recruited from HIV-infected patients seeking care at the An Hoa Clinic in District 6 of Ho Chi Minh City from August 2009 through June 2010. Participants’ demographic data, clinical status, CXR, and laboratory results were collected. A multiple logistic regression model was developed to assess the association of covariates and PTB. ^ The prevalence of smear-positive TB, smear-negative TB, resistant TB, and MDR-TB were 7%, 2%, 5%, 2.5%, and 0.3%, respectively. Adjusted odds ratios for low CD4+ cell count, positive sputum smear, and CXR to positive sputum culture were 3.17, 32.04, and 4.28, respectively. Clinical findings alone had poor sensitivity, but the combination of CD4+ cell count, sputum smear, and CXR proved to perform a more accurate diagnosis.^ This study results support the routine use of sputum culture to improve the detection of TB disease in HIV-infected individuals in Vietnam. When routine sputum culture is not available, an algorithm combining CD4+ cell count, sputum smear, and CXR is recommended for diagnosing PTB. Future studies on more affordable, rapid, and accurate tests for TB infection would also be necessary to timely provide specific treatments for patients in need, reduce mortality, and minimize TB transmission to the general population.^