Effect of nonnormal random components on level and power in group-randomized trials

The use of group-randomized trials is particularly widespread in the evaluation of health care, educational, and screening strategies. Group-randomized trials represent a subset of a larger class of designs often labeled nested, hierarchical, or multilevel and are characterized by the randomization of intact social units or groups, rather than individuals. The application of random effects models to group-randomized trials requires the specification of fixed and random components of the model. The underlying assumption is usually that these random components are normally distributed. This research is intended to determine if the Type I error rate and power are affected when the assumption of normality for the random component representing the group effect is violated. ^ In this study, simulated data are used to examine the Type I error rate, power, bias and mean squared error of the estimates of the fixed effect and the observed intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) when the random component representing the group effect possess distributions with non-normal characteristics, such as heavy tails or severe skewness. The simulated data are generated with various characteristics (e.g. number of schools per condition, number of students per school, and several within school ICCs) observed in most small, school-based, group-randomized trials. The analysis is carried out using SAS PROC MIXED, Version 6.12, with random effects specified in a random statement and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation specified. The results from the non-normally distributed data are compared to the results obtained from the analysis of data with similar design characteristics but normally distributed random effects. ^ The results suggest that the violation of the normality assumption for the group component by a skewed or heavy-tailed distribution does not appear to influence the estimation of the fixed effect, Type I error, and power. Negative biases were detected when estimating the sample ICC and dramatically increased in magnitude as the true ICC increased. These biases were not as pronounced when the true ICC was within the range observed in most group-randomized trials (i.e. 0.00 to 0.05). The normally distributed group effect also resulted in bias ICC estimates when the true ICC was greater than 0.05. However, this may be a result of higher correlation within the data. ^

Optimal frequency of Imiquimod (Aldara(RTM)) 5% cream treatment of external genital warts in immunocompetent adults. Systematic review and meta-analysis

Genital warts are a sexually transmitted disease with high prevalence in the U.S. Imiquimod 5% cream is a self-applied treatment, prescribed three-times weekly, at bedtime, for 16 weeks. The post-marketing research addressed questions of imiquimod dosing frequency. MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched for randomized trials on efficacy and safety of imiquimod 5% cream with either three-times weekly or once-daily regimens to systemically review treatment options. Efficacy was evaluated by completely cleared warts at the end of treatment, and safety - by frequency of adverse events and at least one rest period taken from treatment. Six studies were selected for the analysis, including circumcised men, uncircumcised men, and women. The once-daily compared to three-times weekly regimen did not improve the efficacy, but resulted in increased incidence of local skin reactions and events, when at least one rest period was taken from treatment. The optimal regimen is three-times weekly.^

Impact of hormonal therapy on survival and racial disparities in a large community-based cohort of older men with local/regional prostate cancer

Prostate cancer (CaP) is the most diagnosed non-cutaneous malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer mortality among United States males. Major racial disparities in incidence, survival, as well as treatment persist. The mortality is three times higher among African Americans (AAs) compared with Caucasians. Androgen carcinogenesis has been persistently implicated but results are inconsistent; and hormone manipulation has been the main stay of treatment for metastatic disease, supportive of the androgen carcinogenesis. The survival disadvantage of AAs has been attributed to the differences in socioeconomic factors (SES), tumor stage, and treatment. We hypostasized that HT prolongs survival in CaP and that the racial disparities in survival is influenced by variation in HT and primary therapies as well as SES. To address these overall hypothesis, we first utilized a random-effect meta-analytic design to examine evidence from randomized trials on the efficacy of androgen deprivation therapy in localized and metastatic disease, and assessed, using Cox proportional hazards models, the effectiveness of HT in prolonging survival in a large community-based cohort of older males diagnosed with local/regional CaP. Further we examined the role of HT and primary therapies on the racial disparities in CaP survival. The results indicated that adjuvant HT compared with standard care alone is efficacious in improving overall survival, whereas HT has no significant benefit in the real world experience in increasing the overall survival of older males in the community treated for local/regional disease. Further, racial differences in survival persist and were explained to some extent by the differences in the primary therapies (radical prostatectomy, radiation and watchful waiting) and largely by SES. Therefore, given the increased used of hormonal therapy and the cost-effectiveness today, more RCTs are needed to assess whether or not survival prolongation translates to improved quality of life, and to answer the research question on whether or not the decreased use of radical prostatectomy by AAs is driven by the Clinicians bias or AAs's preference of conservative therapy and to encourage AAs to seek curative therapies, thus narrowing to some degree the persistent mortality disparities between AAs and Caucasians. ^

Hypogonadism in male cancer patients: A cross-sectional study

Introduction. Cancer is the second most common cause of death in the USA (2). Studies have shown a coexistence of cancer and hypogonadism (9,31,13). The majority of patients with cancer develop cachexia, which cannot be solely explained by anorexia seen in these patients. Testosterone is a male sex hormone which is known to increase muscle mass and strength, maintain cancellous bone mass, and increase cortical bone mass, in addition to improving libido, sexual desire, and fantasy (14). If a high prevalence of hypogonadism is detected in male cancer patients, and a significant difference exists in testosterone levels in cancer patients with cachexia versus those without cachexia, testosterone may be administered in future randomized trials to help alleviate cachexia. Study group and design The study group consisted of male cancer patients and non-cancer controls aged between 40 and 70 years. The primary study design was cross-sectional with a sample size of 135. The present data analysis is done on a subset convenience sample of 72 patients recruited between November 2006 and January 2010. ^ Methods. Patients aged 40-70 years with or without a diagnosis of cancer were recruited into the study. All patients with a BMI over 35, significant edema, non-melanomatous skin cancer, current alcohol or illicit drug abuse, concomitant usage of medications interfering with gonadal axis, and anabolic agents, patients on tube feeds or parenteral nutrition within 3 months prior to enrollment were excluded from the study. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Baylor College of Medicine and is being conducted at the Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center at Houston. My thesis is a pilot data analysis that employs a smaller subset convenience sample of 72 patients determined by using the data available for the 72 patients (of the intended sample of 135 patients) recruited between November 2006 and January 2010. The primary aim of this analysis is to compare the proportion of patients with hypogonadism in the male cancer and non-cancer control groups, and to evaluate if a significant difference exists with respect to testosterone levels in male cancer patients with cachexia versus those without cachexia. The procedures of the study relevant to the current data analysis included blood collection to measure levels of testosterone and measurement of body weight to categorize cancer patients into cancer cachexia and cancer non-cachexia sub-groups. ^ Results. After logarithmic transformation of data of cancer and control groups, the unpaired t test with unequal variances was done. The proportion of patients with hypogonadism in the male cancer and non-cancer control groups was 47.5% and 22.7% with a Pearson chi2 statistic of 1.6036 and a p value of 0.205. Comparing the mean calculated Bioavailable testosterone in male cancer patients and non-cancer controls resulted in a t statistic of 21.83 and a p value less than 0.001. When the cancer group alone was taken, the mean free testosterone, calculated bioavailable testosterone and total testosterone levels in the cancer non-cachexia sub-group were 3.93, 5.09, 103.51 respectively and in the cancer cachexia sub-group were 3.58, 4.17, 84.08 respectively. The unpaired t test with equal variances showed that the two sub-groups had p values of 0.2015, 0.1842, and 0.4894 with respect to calculated bioavailable testosterone, free testosterone, and total testosterone respectively. ^ Conclusions. The small sample size of this exploratory study, resulting in a small power, does not allow us to draw definitive conclusions. For the given sub-sample, the proportion of patients with hypogonadism in the cancer group was not significantly different from that of patients with hypogonadism in the control group. Inferences on prevalence of hypogonadism in male cancer patients could not be made in this paper as the sub-sample is small and therefore not representative of the general population. However, there was a statistically significant difference in calculated Bioavailable testosterone levels in male cancer patients versus non-cancer controls. Analysis of cachectic and non-cachectic patients within the male cancer group showed no significant difference in testosterone levels (total, free, and calculated bioavailable testosterone) between both sub-groups. However, to re-iterate, this study is exploratory and the results may change once the complete dataset is obtained and analyzed. It however serves as a good template to guide further research and analysis.^

Is paromomycin an effective and safe treatment against cutaneous leishmaniasis? A meta-analysis of 14 randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: High cost, poor compliance, and systemic toxicity have limited the use of pentavalent antimony compounds (SbV), the treatment of choice for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). Paromomycin (PR) has been developed as an alternative to SbV, but existing data are conflicting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, without language restriction, through August 2007, to identify randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy or safety between PR and placebo or SbV. Primary outcome was clinical cure, defined as complete healing, disappearance, or reepithelialization of all lesions. Data were extracted independently by two investigators, and pooled using a random-effects model. Fourteen trials including 1,221 patients were included. In placebo-controlled trials, topical PR appeared to have therapeutic activity against the old world and new world CL, with increased local reactions, when used with methylbenzethonium chloride (MBCL) compared to when used alone (risk ratio [RR] for clinical cure, 2.58 versus 1.01: RR for local reactions, 1.60 versus 1.07). In SbV-controlled trials, the efficacy of topical PR was not significantly different from that of intralesional SbV in the old world CL (RR, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-1.89), whereas topical PR was inferior to parenteral SbV in treating the new world CL (0.67; 0.54-0.82). No significant difference in efficacy was found between parenteral PR and parenteral SbV in the new world CL (0.88; 0.56-1.38). Systemic side effects were fewer with topical or parenteral PR than parenteral SbV. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Topical PR with MBCL could be a therapeutic alternative to SbV in selected cases of the old world CL. Development of new formulations with better efficacy and tolerability remains to be an area of future research.

Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^

Continuous safety screens for randomized controlled clinical trials with blinded treatment information

Standard methods for testing safety data are needed to ensure the safe conduct of clinical trials. In particular, objective rules for reliably identifying unsafe treatments need to be put into place to help protect patients from unnecessary harm. DMCs are uniquely qualified to evaluate accumulating unblinded data and make recommendations about the continuing safe conduct of a trial. However, it is the trial leadership who must make the tough ethical decision about stopping a trial, and they could benefit from objective statistical rules that help them judge the strength of evidence contained in the blinded data. We design early stopping rules for harm that act as continuous safety screens for randomized controlled clinical trials with blinded treatment information, which could be used by anyone, including trial investigators (and trial leadership). A Bayesian framework, with emphasis on the likelihood function, is used to allow for continuous monitoring without adjusting for multiple comparisons. Close collaboration between the statistician and the clinical investigators will be needed in order to design safety screens with good operating characteristics. Though the math underlying this procedure may be computationally intensive, implementation of the statistical rules will be easy and the continuous screening provided will give suitably early warning when real problems were to emerge. Trial investigators and trial leadership need these safety screens to help them to effectively monitor the ongoing safe conduct of clinical trials with blinded data.^

A systematic review of community-based colorectal cancer screening randomized controlled trials with multi-ethnic groups

Background. The CDC estimates that 40% of adults 50 years of age or older do not receive time-appropriate colorectal cancer screening. Sixty percent of colorectal cancer deaths could be prevented by regular screening of adults 50 years of age and older. Yet, in 2000 only 42.5% of adults age 50 or older in the U.S. had received recommended screening. Disparities by health care, nativity status, socioeconomic status, and race/ethnicity are evident. Disparities in minority, underserved populations prevent us from attaining Goal 2 of Healthy People 2010 to “eliminate health disparities.” This review focuses on community-based screening research among underserved populations that includes multiple ethnic groups for appropriate disparities analysis. There is a gap in the colorectal cancer screening literature describing the effectiveness of community-based randomized controlled trials. ^ Objective. To critically review the literature describing community-based colorectal cancer screening strategies that are randomized controlled trials, and that include multiple racial/ethnic groups. ^ Methods. The review includes a preliminary disparities analysis to assess whether interventions were appropriately targeted in communities to those groups experiencing the greatest health disparities. Review articles are from an original search using Ovid Medline and a cross-matching search in Pubmed, both from January 2001 to June 2009. The Ovid Medline literature review is divided into eight exclusionary stages, seven electronic, and the last stage consisting of final manual review. ^ Results. The final studies (n=15) are categorized into four categories: Patient mailings (n=3), Telephone outreach (n=3), Electronic/multimedia (n=4), and Counseling/community education (n=5). Of 15 studies, 11 (73%) demonstrated that screening rates increased for the intervention group compared to controls, including all studies (100%) from the Patient mailings and Telephone outreach groups, 4 of 5 (80%) Counseling/community education studies, and 1 of 4 (25%) Electronic/multimedia interventions. ^ Conclusions. Patient choice and tailoring education and/or messages to individuals have proven to be two important factors in improving colorectal cancer screening adherence rates. Technological strategies have not been overly successful with underserved populations in community-based trials. Based on limited findings to date, future community-based colorectal cancer screening trials should include diverse populations who are experiencing incidence, survival, mortality and screening disparities. ^

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pilot study of naltrexone in outpatients with bipolar disorder and alcohol dependence.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol dependence is extremely common in patients with bipolar disorder and is associated with unfavorable outcomes including treatment nonadherence, violence, increased hospitalization, and decreased quality of life. While naltrexone is a standard treatment for alcohol dependence, no controlled trials have examined its use in patients with co-morbid bipolar disorder and alcohol dependence. In this pilot study, the efficacy of naltrexone in reducing alcohol use and on mood symptoms was assessed in bipolar disorder and alcohol dependence. METHODS: Fifty adult outpatients with bipolar I or II disorders and current alcohol dependence with active alcohol use were randomized to 12 weeks of naltrexone (50 mg/d) add-on therapy or placebo. Both groups received manual-driven cognitive behavioral therapy designed for patients with bipolar disorder and substance-use disorders. Drinking days and heavy drinking days, alcohol craving, liver enzymes, and manic and depressed mood symptoms were assessed. RESULTS: The 2 groups were similar in baseline and demographic characteristics. Naltrexone showed trends (p < 0.10) toward a greater decrease in drinking days (binary outcome), alcohol craving, and some liver enzyme levels than placebo. Side effects were similar in the 2 groups. Response to naltrexone was significantly related to medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest the potential value and acceptable tolerability of naltrexone for alcohol dependence in bipolar disorder patients. A larger trial is needed to establish efficacy.

Outcome-based adaptive randomization for binary data in clinical trials---Compare and contrast

Monte Carlo simulation has been conducted to investigate parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in some well known adaptive randomization procedures. The four urn models studied are Randomized Play-the-Winner (RPW), Randomized Pôlya Urn (RPU), Birth and Death Urn with Immigration (BDUI), and Drop-the-Loses Urn (DL). Two sequential estimation methods, the sequential maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE) and the doubly adaptive biased coin design (DABC), are simulated at three optimal allocation targets that minimize the expected number of failures under the assumption of constant variance of simple difference (RSIHR), relative risk (ORR), and odds ratio (OOR) respectively. Log likelihood ratio test and three Wald-type tests (simple difference, log of relative risk, log of odds ratio) are compared in different adaptive procedures. ^ Simulation results indicates that although RPW is slightly better in assigning more patients to the superior treatment, the DL method is considerably less variable and the test statistics have better normality. When compared with SMLE, DABC has slightly higher overall response rate with lower variance, but has larger bias and variance in parameter estimation. Additionally, the test statistics in SMLE have better normality and lower type I error rate, and the power of hypothesis testing is more comparable with the equal randomization. Usually, RSIHR has the highest power among the 3 optimal allocation ratios. However, the ORR allocation has better power and lower type I error rate when the log of relative risk is the test statistics. The number of expected failures in ORR is smaller than RSIHR. It is also shown that the simple difference of response rates has the worst normality among all 4 test statistics. The power of hypothesis test is always inflated when simple difference is used. On the other hand, the normality of the log likelihood ratio test statistics is robust against the change of adaptive randomization procedures. ^

Behavioral facets of cancer chemoprevention trials

Few studies have explored factors related to participation in cancer chemoprevention trials. The purpose of this dissertation was to conduct investigations in this emerging field by studying aspects of participation at three phases of cancer chemoprevention trials: at enrollment, during a placebo run-in period, and post-trial. In all three studies, subjects had a history of cancer and were at high risk of recurrence or second primary tumors.^ The first study explored correlates of enrollment in a head and neck cancer chemoprevention trial by comparing participants and eligible nonparticipants. Of 148 subjects who met the trial's preliminary eligibility criteria, 40% enrolled. In multivariate analysis, enrollment was positively associated with being male (OR 2.36) and being employed (OR 2.73). The most commonly cited reason for declining participation among nonparticipants was transportation.^ The second study examined outcomes of an eight-week placebo run-in period in a head and neck cancer chemoprevention trial. Of 391 subjects, 91.3% were randomized after the run-in. Adherence to drug capsules ranged from 0% to 120.3% (mean $\pm$ SD, 95.8% $\pm$ 15.1). In multivariate analysis, the main variable predicting run-in outcome was race; white subjects were 3.45 times more likely to be randomized than non-white subjects. Subjects with Karnofsky scores of 100 were 2.13 times more likely to be randomized than were subjects with lower scores.^ The third study used post-trial questionnaires to assess subjects' (n = 64) perceptions of participation in a cancer chemoprevention trial. The most highly rated trial benefit was the perception of potential colon cancer prevention, and the most troublesome barrier was erroneous billing for study visits. Perceived benefits were positively associated with interest in participating in future trials of the same (p = 0.05) and longer (p = 0.02) duration, and difficulty with trial pills and procedures was inversely related to interest in future placebo-controlled trials (p = 0.01).^ These are among the first behavioral studies to be completed in the rapidly growing field of cancer chemoprevention. Much work has yet to be done, however, to advance our understanding of the complex issues relating to chemoprevention trial participation. ^