Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

The critical role and regulation of transcription factor FoxM1 in gastric cancer development and progression

The mammalian Forkhead Box (Fox) transcription factor (FoxM1) is implicated in tumorgenesis. However, the role and regulation of FoxM1 in gastric cancer remain unknown.^ I examined FoxM1 expression in 86 cases of primary gastric cancer and 57 normal gastric tissue specimens. I found weak expression of FoxM1 protein in normal gastric mucosa, whereas I observed strong staining for FoxM1 in tumor-cell nuclei in various gastric tumors and lymph node metastases. The aberrant FoxM1 expression is associated with VEGF expression and increased angiogenesis in human gastric cancer. A Cox proportional hazards model revealed that FoxM1 expression was an independent prognostic factor in multivariate analysis. Furthermore, overexpression of FoxM1 by gene transfer significantly promoted the growth and metastasis of gastric cancer cells in orthotopic mouse models, whereas knockdown of FoxM1 expression by small interfering RNA did the opposite. Next, I observed that alteration of tumor growth and metastasis by elevated FoxM1 expression was directly correlated with alteration of VEGF expression and angiogenesis. In addition, promotion of gastric tumorigenesis by FoxM1 directly and significantly correlated with transactivation of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression and elevation of angiogenesis. ^ To further investigate the underlying mechanisms that result in FoxM1 overexpression in gastric cancer, I investigated FoxM1 and Krüppel-like factor 4 (KLF4) expressions in primary gastric cancer and normal gastric tissue specimens. Concomitance of increased expression of FoxM1 protein and decreased expression of KLF4 protein was evident in human gastric cancer. Enforced KLF4 expression suppressed FoxM1 protein expression. Moreover, a region within the proximal FoxM1 promoter was identified to have KLF4-binding sites. Finally, I found an increased FoxM1 expression in gastric mucosa of villin-Cre -directed tissue specific Klf4-null mice.^ In summary, I offered both clinical and mechanistic evidence that dysregulated expression of FoxM1 play an important role in gastric cancer development and progression, while KLF4 mediates negative regulation of FoxM1 expression and its loss significantly contributes to FoxM1 dysregulation. ^

Comparison of clinical and economic outcomes between high-intensity care and hospice care for the end-of-life melanoma patients

The intensity of care for patients at the end-of-life is increasing in recent years. Publications have focused on intensity of care for many cancers, but none on melanoma patients. Substantial gaps exist in knowledge about intensive care and its alternative, hospice care, among the advanced melanoma patients at the end of life. End-of-life care may be used in quite different patterns and induce both intended and unintended clinical and economic consequences. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked databases to identify patients aged 65 years or older with metastatic melanoma who died between 2000 and 2007. We evaluated trends and associations between sociodemographic and health services characteristics and the use of hospice care, chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation therapy and costs. Survival, end-of-life costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were evaluated using propensity score methods. Costs were analyzed from the perspective of Medicare in 2009 dollars. In the first journal Article we found increasing use of surgery for patients with metastatic melanoma from 13% in 2000 to 30% in 2007 (P=0.03 for trend), no significant fluctuation in use of chemotherapy (P=0.43) or radiation therapy (P=0.46). Older patients were less likely to receive radiation therapy or chemotherapy. The use of hospice care increased from 61% in 2000 to 79% in 2007 (P =0.07 for trend). Enrollment in short-term (1-3 days) hospice care use increased, while long-term hospice care (≥ 4 days) remained stable. Patients living in the SEER Northeast and South regions were less likely to undergo surgery. Patients enrolled in long-term hospice care used significantly less chemotherapy, surgery and radiation therapy. In the second journal article, of 611 patients identified for this study, 358 (59%) received no hospice care after their diagnosis, 168 (27%) received 1 to 3 days of hospice care, and 85 (14%) received 4 or more days of hospice care. The median survival time was 181 days for patients with no hospice care, 196 days for patients enrolled in hospice for 1 to 3 days, and 300 days for patients enrolled for 4 or more days (log-rank test, P < 0.001). The estimated hazard ratios (HR) between 4 or more days hospice use and survival were similar within the original cohort Cox proportional hazard model (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78, P < 0.0001) and the propensity score-matched model (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47-0.78, P = 0.0001). Patients with ≥ 4 days of hospice care incurred lower end-of-life costs than the other two groups ($14,298 versus $19,380 for the 1- to 3-days hospice care, and $24,351 for patients with no hospice care; p < 0.0001). In conclusion, Surgery and hospice care use increased over the years of this study while the use of chemotherapy and radiation therapy remained consistent for patients diagnosed with metastatic melanoma. Patients diagnosed with advanced melanoma who enrolled in ≥ 4 days of hospice care experienced longer survival than those who had 1-3 days of hospice or no hospice care, and this longer overall survival was accompanied by lower end-of-life costs.^