The effects of population density on the spread of disease

The objective of this study is to identify the relationship between population density and the initial stages of the spread of disease in a local population. This study proposes to concentrate on the question of how population density affects the distribution of the susceptible individuals in a local population and thus affects the spread of the disease, measles. Population density is measured by the average of the number of contacts with susceptible individuals by each individual in the population during a fixed-length time period. The term “contact with susceptible individuals” means sufficient contact between two people for the disease to pass from an infectious person to a susceptible person. The fixed-length time period is taken to be the average length of time an infected person is infectious without symptoms of the disease. For this study of measles, the time period will be seven days. ^ While much attention has been given to modeling the entire epidemic process of measles, attempts have not been made to study the characteristics of contact rates required to initiate an epidemic. This study explores the relationship between population density, given a specific herd immunity rate in the population, and initial rate of the spread of the disease by considering the underlying distribution of contacts with susceptibles by the individuals in the population. ^ This study does not seek to model an entire measles epidemic, but to model the above stated relationship for the local population within which the first infective person is introduced. This study describes the mathematical relationship between population density parameters and contact distribution parameters. ^ The results are displayed in graphs that show the effects of different population densities on the spread of disease. The results support the idea that the number of new infectives is strongly related to the distribution of susceptible contacts. The results also show large differences in the epidemic measures between populations with densities equal to four versus three. ^

Suppression of T lymphocyte activation in simulated microgravity

Immune dysfunction is encountered during spaceflight. Various aspects of spaceflight, including microgravity, cosmic radiation, and both physiological and psychological stress, may perturb immune function. We sought to understand the impact of microgravity alone on the cellular mechanisms critical to immunity. Clinostatic RWV bioreactors that simulate aspects of microgravity were used to analyze the response of human PBMC to polyclonal and oligoclonal activation. PHA responsiveness in the RWV bioreactor was almost completely diminished. IL-2 and IFN-$\gamma$ secretion was reduced whereas IL-1$\beta$ and IL-6 secretion was increased, suggesting that monocytes may not be as adversely affected by simulated microgravity as T cells. Activation marker expression (CD25, CD69, CD71) was significantly reduced in RWV cultures. Furthermore, addition of exogenous IL-2 to these cultures did not restore proliferation. Antigen specific T cell activation, including the mixed-lymphocyte reaction, tetanus toxoid responsiveness, and Borrelia activation of a specific T cell line, was also suppressed in the RWV bioreactor.^ The role of altered culture conditions in the suppression of T cell activation were considered. Potential reduced cell-cell and cell-substratum interactions in the RWV bioreactor may play a role in the loss of PHA responsiveness. However, PHA activation in Teflon culture bags that limit cell-substratum interactions was not affected. Furthermore, increasing cell-population density, and therefore cell-cell interactions, in the RWV cultures did not help restore PHA activation. However, placing PBMC within small collagen beads did partially restore PHA responsiveness. Finally, activation of purified T cells with crosslinked CD2/CD28 or CD3/CD28 antibody pairs, which does not require costimulation through cell-cell contact, was completely suppressed in the RWV bioreactor suggesting a defect internal to the T cell.^ Activation of both PBMC and purified T cells with PMA and ionomycin was unaffected by RWV culture, indicating that signaling mechanisms downstream of PKC activation and calcium flux are not sensitive to simulated microgravity. Furthermore, sub-mitogenic doses of PMA alone but not ionomycin alone restored PHA responsiveness of PBMC in RWV culture. Thus, our data indicate that during polyclonal activation in simulated microgravity, there is a specific dysfunction within the T cell involving the signaling pathways upstream of PKC activation. ^

Toxics Release Inventory facilities and childhood cancer: Geographic information systems based approach

Purpose. To examine the association between living in proximity to Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and the incidence of childhood cancer in the State of Texas. ^ Design. This is a secondary data analysis utilizing the publicly available Toxics release inventory (TRI), maintained by the U.S. Environmental protection agency that lists the facilities that release any of the 650 TRI chemicals. Total childhood cancer cases and childhood cancer rate (age 0-14 years) by county, for the years 1995-2003 were used from the Texas cancer registry, available at the Texas department of State Health Services website. Setting: This study was limited to the children population of the State of Texas. ^ Method. Analysis was done using Stata version 9 and SPSS version 15.0. Satscan was used for geographical spatial clustering of childhood cancer cases based on county centroids using the Poisson clustering algorithm which adjusts for population density. Pictorial maps were created using MapInfo professional version 8.0. ^ Results. One hundred and twenty five counties had no TRI facilities in their region, while 129 facilities had at least one TRI facility. An increasing trend for number of facilities and total disposal was observed except for the highest category based on cancer rate quartiles. Linear regression analysis using log transformation for number of facilities and total disposal in predicting cancer rates was computed, however both these variables were not found to be significant predictors. Seven significant geographical spatial clusters of counties for high childhood cancer rates (p<0.05) were indicated. Binomial logistic regression by categorizing the cancer rate in to two groups (<=150 and >150) indicated an odds ratio of 1.58 (CI 1.127, 2.222) for the natural log of number of facilities. ^ Conclusion. We have used a unique methodology by combining GIS and spatial clustering techniques with existing statistical approaches in examining the association between living in proximity to TRI facilities and the incidence of childhood cancer in the State of Texas. Although a concrete association was not indicated, further studies are required examining specific TRI chemicals. Use of this information can enable the researchers and public to identify potential concerns, gain a better understanding of potential risks, and work with industry and government to reduce toxic chemical use, disposal or other releases and the risks associated with them. TRI data, in conjunction with other information, can be used as a starting point in evaluating exposures and risks. ^

A community-based assessment of the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza in a U.S.-Mexico border county during the spring 2009 novel H1N1 swine-origin influenza A pandemic

This study retrospectively evaluated the spatial and temporal disease patterns associated with influenza-like illness (ILI), positive rapid influenza antigen detection tests (RIDT), and confirmed H1N1 S-OIV cases reported to the Cameron County Department of Health and Human Services between April 26 and May 13, 2009 using the space-time permutation scan statistic software SaTScan in conjunction with geographical information system (GIS) software ArcGIS 9.3. The rate and age-adjusted relative risk of each influenza measure was calculated and a cluster analysis was conducted to determine the geographic regions with statistically higher incidence of disease. A Poisson distribution model was developed to identify the effect that socioeconomic status, population density, and certain population attributes of a census block-group had on that area's frequency of S-OIV confirmed cases over the entire outbreak. Predominant among the spatiotemporal analyses of ILI, RIDT and S-OIV cases in Cameron County is the consistent pattern of a high concentration of cases along the southern border with Mexico. These findings in conjunction with the slight northward space-time shifts of ILI and RIDT cluster centers highlight the southern border as the primary site for public health interventions. Finally, the community-based multiple regression model revealed that three factors—percentage of the population under age 15, average household size, and the number of high school graduates over age 25—were significantly associated with laboratory-confirmed S-OIV in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Together, these findings underscore the need for community-based surveillance, improve our understanding of the distribution of the burden of influenza within the community, and have implications for vaccination and community outreach initiatives.^

Dengue transmission risk maps of the continental United States

Dengue fever is a strictly human and non-human primate disease characterized by a high fever, thrombocytopenia, retro-orbital pain, and severe joint and muscle pain. Over 40% of the world population is at risk. Recent re-emergence of dengue outbreaks in Texas and Florida following the re-introduction of competent Aedes mosquito vectors in the United States have raised growing concerns about the potential for increased occurrences of dengue fever outbreaks throughout the southern United States. Current deficiencies in vector control, active surveillance and awareness among medical practitioners may contribute to a delay in recognizing and controlling a dengue virus outbreak. Previous studies have shown links between low-income census tracts, high population density, and dengue fever within the United States. Areas of low-income and high population density that correlate with the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes result in higher potential for outbreaks. In this retrospective ecologic study, nine maps were generated to model U.S. census tracts’ potential to sustain dengue virus transmission if the virus was introduced into the area. Variables in the model included presence of a competent vector in the county and census tract percent poverty and population density. Thirty states, 1,188 counties, and 34,705 census tracts were included in the analysis. Among counties with Aedes mosquito infestation, the census tracts were ranked high, medium, and low risk potential for sustained transmission of the virus. High risk census tracts were identified as areas having the vector, ≥20% poverty, and ≥500 persons per square mile. Census tracts with either ≥20% poverty or ≥500 persons per square mile and have the vector present are considered moderate risk. Census tracts that have the vector present but have <20% poverty and <500 persons per square mile are considered low risk. Furthermore, counties were characterized as moderate risk if 50% or more of the census tracts in that county were rated high or moderate risk, and high risk if 25% or greater were rated high risk. Extreme risk counties, which were primarily concentrated in Texas and Mississippi, were considered having 50% or greater of the census tracts ranked as high risk. Mapping of geographic areas with potential to sustain dengue virus transmission will support surveillance efforts and assist medical personnel in recognizing potential cases. ^

Population-level risks of physical activity: Saving bones and screening hearts

Documented risks of physical activity include reduced bone mineral density at high activity volume, and sudden cardiac death among adults and adolescents. Further illumination of these risks is needed to inform future public health guidelines. The present research seeks to 1) quantify the association between physical activity and bone mineral density (BMD) across a broad range of activity volume, 2) assess the utility of an existing pre-screening questionnaire among US adults, and 3) determine if pre-screening risk stratification by questionnaire predicts referral to physician among Texas adolescents. ^ Among 9,468 adults 20 years of age or older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2010, linear regression analyses revealed generally higher BMD at the lumbar spine and proximal femur with greater reported activity volume. Only lumbar BMD in women was unassociated with activity volume. Among men, BMD was similar at activity beyond four times the minimum volume recommended in the Physical Activity Guidelines. These results suggest that the range of activity reported by US adults is not associated with low BMD at either site. ^ The American Heart Association / American College of Sports Medicine Preparticipation Questionnaire (AAPQ) was applied to 6,661 adults 40 years of age or older from NHANES 2001-2004 by using NHANES responses to complete AAPQ items. Following AAPQ referral criteria, 95.5% of women and 93.5% of men would be referred to a physician before exercise initiation, suggesting little utility for the AAPQ among adults aged 40 years or older. Unnecessary referral before exercise initiation may present a barrier to exercise adoption and may strain an already stressed healthcare infrastructure. ^ Among 3181 athletes in the Texas Adolescent Athlete Heart Screening Registry, 55.2% of boys and 62.2% of girls were classified as high-risk based on questionnaire answers. Using sex-stratified contingency table analyses, risk categories were not significantly associated with referral to physician based on electrocardiogram or echocardiogram, nor were they associated with confirmed diagnoses on follow-up. Additional research is needed to identify which symptoms are most closely related to sudden cardiac death, and determine the best methods for rapid and reliable assessment. ^ In conclusion, this research suggests that the volume of activity reported by US adults is not associated with low BMD at two clinically relevant sites, casts doubts on the utility of two existing cardiac screening tools, and raises concern about barriers to activity erected through ineffective screening. These findings augment existing research in this area that may inform revisions to the Physical Activity Guidelines regarding risk mitigation.^